Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[winnet] 06/3/2017 16:00

This is now my thoughts following the farm out:

VOG/BLVN are stating a sustained flow rate that exceeds 7MMSCFD from Moambe.

The price achieved is between 9 and $16/mmbtu. Let us take the mean and call it approx 12 dollars.

1 MMSCFD = 1000 MMBtu/D

7 x 1000 = 7000*12$ = 84000*365/20 =30/100*20 = 6 million dollars.

Net off the development costs, regional downtime and other taxes, etc and we're looking IRO 3 million PA.

comments?

[loglorry1] 06/3/2017 16:00

@YARSRUB but this valuation is based on an investor presentation which is at best promotional material. Either way it condemns the board. They either gave away a valuable asset for buttons to VOG or they've been ramping something which has little value to justify the fact they spent $100m on.

[wshak] 06/3/2017 15:58

winnet,

If an asset price (of BLVN shares) is driven into the ground by existing management, and an opportunistic buyer snaps them up, that's the market. It is smart investing. You're entitled to worry about the future but there is nothing disreputable about buying shares cheaply, and then leveraging your position to exert your rights as an investor.

The people who opened the door to COC were BLVN management, and the market, by mismanaging things to such an extent that the shares traded below cash. This was always going to happen.

[loglorry1] 06/3/2017 15:57

Winnet you wrote:-


"i was simply calling Log out on his comment that it can only be someone that would support COC. Which of course, is complete and utter nonsense."


But what I actually wrote was :-


I'd be very surprised that anyone with the kind of cash to buy 14m shares at 34p would be voting for the current BoD.

I later gave my reasons which were that buying at this level and voting for the BoD would be like turkey's voting for Christmas.

I don't think I ever said what you said I said e.g. that it CAN ONLY BE someone that would support CoC.

[yasrub] 06/3/2017 15:52

Winnet this was your post '14804' to Loglorry on Bomono. It is not a criticism of you as you were understandably using detail that was available in the public domain and making reasonable assumptions. Looking at the farm out details today where the BLVN BOD state 'have been in discussion for months' it would seem the farm out has not met expectations of most PIs

Log - I posted this a while back when we were talking about bomono.

"Project with 5-6 MMSCFD (See:
hxxp://www.bowleven.com/system/files/uploads/financialdocs/investor-presentation-april-2016.pdf
) based on a price of 10US$ per mmbtu should yield in the region of 18-20 million dollars per annum.

Now... net off the GandA, royalties and other costs and i think we're back to 13-15 million dollars per annum."

FYI - I have used 10 MMBTU, but the actual figures were 9-16MMBTU stated at the PI meeting. This would sense as its the same price VOG has achieved.

Obviously is may take a while to ramp up to 5-6 MMSCFD, so to be cautious, I have halved it for an initial startup period. So 15 million by 2, and we're at IRO 8 million per annum,...

That's my best guess and certainly not a basket case as some might try and persuade you.

[winnet] 06/3/2017 15:47

Shak - i was simply calling Log out on his comment that it can only be someone that would support COC. Which of course, is complete and utter nonsense.

Also, who knows who the beneficial owner is of these COC shares? The money is bought through a company in a tax haven.

Regarding the spiv comments, its a little tongue in cheek but probably on balance fair IMO. The definition of a spiv is someone who makes money from disreputable dealings and i think that is exactly what this [attempted] asset strip is.

[cyan] 06/3/2017 15:42

Jumping to conclusions again Le_com. Don't tell me, its YOU!

A dream scenario would be a third party who is not a white knight !

[le_commissaire] 06/3/2017 15:38

Dan

How do you know it is COC?

[wshak] 06/3/2017 15:35

winnet,

PMSL. Of course Log, the only people with that sort of cash are spivs from Monaco...

No-one can know - the trade may simply be a large block being moved between accounts for voting purposes. Not all brokers are willing to vote shares if held in beneficiary accounts, although most will do so.

I don't think it's necessary to refer to COC as "spivs from Monaco" either. They may turn out to be exactly that but all that they've done so far is invest a lot of their own money and make proposals to shake up the complacency within Bowleven. Anyone who legitimately buys shares, rather than have them awarded via daft options packages and LTIPs that incentivize failure, has my shout.

@WShak1

[loglorry1] 06/3/2017 15:32

By "spivs from Monaco" I guess you mean CoC. I'd be grateful if you can point me to any information which backs that up? I'm actually very interested to know if you have any decent references that show that CoC are "spivs".

The reason I wrote that is that it is pretty clear to almost everyone that if the BoD win the price will drop back down way lower than 34p so why on earth would anyone buy that many shares to then vote against CoC? It would be like Turkey's voting for Christmas.

[cyan] 06/3/2017 15:27

The RNS shows them buying 3.75 million on Wednesday 1st march. I expect we will see another rns soon enough.. Has to be COC imo.

Having said that; who knows; maybe EL CID, the third party who will make this really interesting.

[winnet] 06/3/2017 15:23

I'd be very surprised that anyone with the kind of cash to buy 14m shares at 34p would be voting for the current BoD.

------------

PMSL. Of course Log, the only people with that sort of cash are spivs from Monaco...

We will see...

[neilyb675] 06/3/2017 15:21

Wowser that 14 million is a stonker.......GAME ON ✔

[gark] 06/3/2017 15:18

Most likely COC.

[loglorry1] 06/3/2017 15:17

I'd be very surprised that anyone with the kind of cash to buy 14m shares at 34p would be voting for the current BoD.

[warbaby43] 06/3/2017 15:14

At the AGM c120m shares were voted = 37.5%. This time difficult to believe that the vote will be less than 50%, 160m shares, so if that really was a 14m BUY and it wasn't from CoC but from another of the Edinburgh mafia, the result might just have got an awful lot closer.

On the other hand if it was from COC or one of their backers, then the weight of vote against the BoD is going to be truly humiliating.

[loglorry1] 06/3/2017 15:12

Loads of small cap oil and gas companies have been shooting up in value over the last few months. The prices people are willing to pay for these companies now when oil is $56/bbl seems very strange to me. It's like shooting fish in a barrel for Malcy right now. It's almost as though oil prices were back above $80. But then again we are back in a raging bull market I suppose.

[cyan] 06/3/2017 15:10

Malcy is one of the better bloggers and he has been pushing a VOG BLVN merger for a long time with which I agreed.

All points of view welcomed.

We can take great reassurance from COC paying 34p for 14 million. Indicates what most of us knew all along; break up value will be MUCH higher.

Its a matter of whether one has a bit more patience to see this through to the end.

[wshak] 06/3/2017 15:07

rossman,

I'm a big fan of Malcy who did me proud last year and is doing it again this year, but he just refuses to look objectively at the BLVN BoD.

I'd be extremely wary of judging anyone by their "tips" over a very short timescale, even if some of them have multi-bagged.

It is what someone writes over a long period that matters, and I've not seen anything from Malcy to impress me. Genuine investors make money from investing, not through their tips.

[leedskier] 06/3/2017 15:02

12:04:17 34.00 14,000,000

[obmuj] 06/3/2017 14:39

ihavenoclue: Already mentioned last week that COC was past 17%.
---------------------------------------------------------
oops. I was in bed with flu last week so I only saw today's RNS.

[loglorry1] 06/3/2017 14:32

@WShak we all know Malcy is just paid PR. I'm sure he's on the Bowleven payroll and as such will only say positive stuff about the deal. It is perhaps a bit myopic because he'll soon want to be on the CoC payroll but I doubt they'll be daft enough to pay him anyway.

Anecdotally I had a guy from Total UK who is quite senior staying at my house for the weekend recently as our families are close. He had been at the Edinbrugh Oil barrel ball the night before. He's well connected with a lot of folk in the industry. I asked him if he had ever heard of Malcy (who had been bragging about his attendance also). He said "no never but there are so many hangers on who write whatever you want them to for a few quid I can't remember them all".

[ihavenoclue] 06/3/2017 14:31

Already mentioned last week that COC was past 17%