Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[specul82] 06/3/2017 10:17

Keep selling your shares guys coc are ducting them all up Don't sell and the price will go up

[cyan] 06/3/2017 10:14

I could't agree more rossannan.

Looks like COC will win now.

[fatnacker] 06/3/2017 10:12

Loglorry on the contrary, vog have stumped up a fortune on creating a network where it's possible for blvn to monetise the bomono asset

[roberto mancini] 06/3/2017 10:10

This deal stinks.

Kevin Fart blowing a raspberry in shareholders faces once again.

[le_commissaire] 06/3/2017 10:09

Wshak

You can rule Etinde out as an interest to BLVN post the COC board.

All that remains to be seen is how much NA will be paying.
COC are as you have seen relatively new bloods and compared to peers of limited funding
with limitation of long term exposure. They are not a sit-in, strap in and hold entity.

The price on the 20% will in my own personal opinion be a fraction of true value
but in COC's eyes, it will be a considerable divy-up considering not only their percentage but also their mixed low entry PPS.

As with the May and August 2014 posts, i normally have a good 'guessing' of tittle-tattle when it comes to this sector S & W Africa and the Etinde factor in their reasoning made me partly admire COC for what is genuinely a genius move on BLVN although sour to my business ethics as it removes any possible benefit for LTH's bar a discounted return on their original high averages.

Great for fresh STI's and speculators but puts 2 fingers up to the suffering long termers.


Dan

You wonder whether they will up their holding?
Not sure what the answer to that is but they will certtainly be keeping it tight fisted before the Etinde 20% is sold on. It makes sense for them to throw some petrol on the fire pre any sale which could come in the form of non O&G investments boasting about secured high interest rates but that would make the holding company more like Northern Rock :)

[winnet] 06/3/2017 10:08

I'd be amazed if it wasn't cheaper to P&A it than this deal.

---

You'll be amazed then!

Look through the figures. VOG are selling a figure that exceeds 7MMSCFD for between 9 and $16/mmbtu. Lets take mean and call it approx 12 dollars.

1 MMSCFD = 1000 MMBtu/D

7 x 1000 = 7000*12$ = 84000*365/20 =30/100*20 = 6 million dollars.

net off the other stuff Log mentioned (plus a lot of stuff he didn't) and we're going to be at about 2.5 million IMO.

I would welcome someone sense checking this for me.

[cyan] 06/3/2017 10:08

The final nail in KH's coffin. The deal with VOG is so poor it matters not if it falls through on a COC win.

The chances of a larger farmin involving burden sharing on exploratory drilling in BOMONO were very remote; now non-existent.

COC are right; time to walk away from the money pit.

I agree with Wshak that the ultimate return will be way North of 35p despite KH's blundering.

KH is toast and, on balance, I think the vote is will swing to COC now.
I wonder if they will up their holding?

[gark] 06/3/2017 09:58

This deal stinks to high heaven. Why would VOG want to pull out if COC win. They should want to hold onto it given the deal they got.

[durby] 06/3/2017 09:46

Winnet - KH's best supporter on planet earth ... here's his quote on revenue potential from Bomono just a couple of weeks back -

"Farm out some of it and spend say 15 million dollars (our share) and drill two more wells and we could be looking at a very nice return IRO 30 million per annum, indeed with a stable home market which is crying out for electricity and the chance to tie it into processing at Etinde..."

So $30m per annum ..... f1eking sh1ite! Apparently KH got a deal that will provide Bowleven no more than $20m during the lifetime of the Bomono production!!

If Carling did BS, it won't be better than Winnet's!!

[loglorry1] 06/3/2017 09:44

However, something is better than nothing on Bomono. Which is what COC were offering shareholders.
Ummm not really since all revenue after direct costs and then some will be spent on G&A. I'd be amazed if it wasn't cheaper to P&A it than this deal. If VOG were picking up the associated G&A which BLVN will spend being operator I'd agree with you.

20% should generate $2.5 million per annum plus the royalties.
Again that's a very bullish figure I guess you've taken that from the investor presentation you quoted before. That's just not very likely at all for 20% (before gov back in.) It would value VOGs share at $10m p.a. and given what they've stumped up for it (almost nothing) why would BLVN have been so generous?

BLVN have stated that CoC's strategy was to stop spending on Bomono and get what they can for it. To me BLVN's BoD have done the same with this deal but crucially they've justified their own existence once again by remaining operator.

If BLVN BoD are not toast after the meeting then I'd be amazed.

[winnet] 06/3/2017 09:39

The alternative was to buy oil/gas producing assets when they were at their rock bottom.

----------

Sorry, you misunderstand, the alternatives with the asset.

[cyman] 06/3/2017 09:37

Wshak Thank you for the response. I may have missed your post but can you tell us the names of the people who have put their names behind coc?I have to agree that the rns today is not what I had in mind. I said a week ago that a vog deal was on the cards and got myself knocked down by a few posters and here you go. I also predicted something with AMINEX and the week is yet young. One possible option for me is the Brexit approach which plays into your view. That is that a coc win might be a short term energiser and allow me to get closer to my average But what about the suspension? If the bod is out then a suspension must follow according to the rules!!!!!

[ihavenoclue] 06/3/2017 09:34

winnet
6 Mar '17 - 09:30 - 15057 of 15057 0 0

I think people need to think what the alternatives were.

================

The alternative was to buy oil/gas producing assets when they were at their rock bottom. Not wait to recover then do a pointless deal to try to protect their position which may in fact have caused them more harm (if that were possible ??). It's like playing out a hand of high stakes poker and all you have is a pair of 2's !!

[winnet] 06/3/2017 09:30

Got to say. Not a fan of this deal. I was hoping and expecting a more equitable carve up. I also agree with Shak, that with just 20% there is no real reason for us to remain as operator, unless of course its something to do with the PEA approval process.

However, something is better than nothing on Bomono. Which is what COC were offering shareholders.

20% should generate 2.5 million per annum plus the royalties. This is clearly disappointing.

I think people need to think what the alternatives were. If we went it alone, we might not see revenue for a while and every man and has dog would be moaning about the development costs.

At least now we have a contribution to G and A, which will help see us through to Etinde FID.

[watfordhornet] 06/3/2017 09:11

Was a time wh it looked as if BLVN would be in driving seat with VOG

Looks like KH knocked on the door at VOG with his pants down and bent over whilst handing them a tub of vaseline

[wshak] 06/3/2017 09:10

cyman,

The only positive thing I have heard since this all started is wshak and his trust in coc. He is a formidable investor and he makes his money by taking risks. You will hopefully do well following his judgement. My mind is open to change but nobody seems to be giving me the assurances that I want. The worst part was a 30 minute conversation with kh which just made me lose all trust in everyone

I'm not sure it is correct to say that I trust COC any more than they trust me, as I don't know them. I don't think the guys in charge there will be offended to hear me say that as they are experienced investors, and I've expressed concerns to them quite openly about their possible motives.

That said, I do believe it is extremely unlikely that they will act in a thoroughly disreputable manner, which is the fear that has been spread by Kevin Hart and his board. There is a notion that has been put out there that they are looking to install patsy directors, who will immediately shovel the assets out (including cash) in a series of related party transactions for their own benefit. Is there a danger of this? Yes. Is it likely to happen? No. I've seen no evidence of that at all in their past, and plenty of people are willing to vouch for them.

I was previously concerned enough to put my stake up for sale at 35p, neither wanting to stick with the existing board at that price nor be reliant on COC to do the decent thing. As I've said before, I've removed that offer and have vote in favour of all resolutions, and I won't be selling my shares before the EGM. It is a calculated risk which I am comfortable with.

Will COC extract full value for Etinde? I doubt it, but I think it'll be more than BLVN's existing board extract from the company's assets, and I certainly think it'll be more than 35p.

The existing board, with all of their O&G experience, are experts at spending enormous amounts of money to develop assets, and then selling those assets for a fraction of the amount spent - while telling us that they have been fantastically successful with their drilling results. With today's Bomono deal, they've excelled themselves but note - they remain operators, with the implication that their experience on the board is still required. Laughable.

[tli8jaguar] 06/3/2017 08:52

le_com, has Na made an offer?

[gwr7] 06/3/2017 08:47

Hart was poor. If you couldn't work that out years ago you should think of something else to do with your time other than investing.

[mrx001] 06/3/2017 08:46

This post on the VOG board seems to be one way of summing it up

"philjeans6 Mar '17 - 08:10 - 34883 of 34894 0 0
Yes - exactly as I predicted. Its a poison pill for BLVN to keep Crown off their back.

Very good news for VOG - less so for BLVN holders."

[gark] 06/3/2017 08:40

Looks like they are gone and as Le Com states NA will be sold the remaining 20% of Etinde. Good job as far as I am concerned as this board is worse than useless.

[le_commissaire] 06/3/2017 08:39

Slip

The structure of the Etinde Permit consortium changed as soon as COC purchased their first share. IMHO etc.

I was not surprised at the non O&G investment noises post a COC win, but from a shylock South African money lenders view, that is not exactly sowing the seeds of long term investment in my book.

The question by BoD supporters that they are sticking to like a fly on honey, is "How can quick monetisation be considered if COC will just sit on 20% of Etinde until FFD.

The answer it seems which was bleedin obvious is that they will not be.

[slipanchor3] 06/3/2017 08:35

Le COM

It could be Vitoil with 25%.

[billytkid2] 06/3/2017 08:34

Also WTF are we remaining operator? Just trying to get the jobs and spending maintained.