Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[guy_fawkes] 06/3/2017 11:34

On it's way to the mid 20's.

[fft] 06/3/2017 11:32

The hints from management (i.e. the presentation oft quoted by Winnet) indicated there might be a higher Bomono value and that a good bomono deal was due very soon.

This deal seems to reduce the potential value of BLVN, and given that BLVN has no say in the development of Etinde it could turn out to be quite a long wait for value to out itself. The share price drop this morning may indicate disappointment in the Bomono outcome.

As such, this morning I sold my remaining holding, but can see in 6 months to a year as interest wanes and the share price declines an opportunity to buy back in and then hold for a further year or 2 until the exit strategy is realised.

[le_commissaire] 06/3/2017 11:31

Wshak

Disaster is an understatement and you, PC etc where all stating the same as i on occasion that Hart needed to wake up and stop with the feathering, unwarranted and undeserved options etc. Even though i am opposed to COC i do agree that Kevin more or less left too little too late.

AEX i totally agreed with him on but that was due to old personal business dealings/grudges with some of the management and not to do with asset value, but the lack of bottom of the barrel buying during the PoO fall is the most singular and strongest knife he self inflicted as far as PI's are concerned IMO.

[loglorry1] 06/3/2017 11:29

@cyan CoC have made public all their trades in response to a request by BLVN. You can work it out if you like. I have not done so.

[cyan] 06/3/2017 11:25

I wonder what COC's average is now?. My guess ; 28p. The sP should not fall lower; in theory.

[gark] 06/3/2017 11:22

Anyone notice the correlation between the board posting an RNS and the share moving lower while COC posts an RNS and the share moves up? Why on earth would anyone want the board to remain in control?

[wshak] 06/3/2017 11:21

cyman,

Thank you for the response. I may have missed your post but can you tell us the names of the people who have put their names behind coc?

I have never offered up the names publicly, but BLVN's management will be aware of some of them. One of those that I spoke to resides on the board of one of America's 3 largest banks. I think it's sensible for people here to dismiss anything I say on this matter, however, unless they know me personally. I certainly would take that approach if someone I didn't know was claiming to have spoken to various references.


But what about the suspension? If the bod is out then a suspension must follow according to the rules!!!!!

There will be no suspension. The resolutions are to kick out the existing board in favour of a much smaller board. The names of the proposed board members are on the voting form.


le_comm,

All that remains to be seen is how much NA will be paying.
COC are as you have seen relatively new bloods and compared to peers of limited funding
with limitation of long term exposure. They are not a sit-in, strap in and hold entity.

The price on the 20% will in my own personal opinion be a fraction of true value
but in COC's eyes, it will be a considerable divy-up considering not only their percentage but also their mixed low entry PPS.

As with the May and August 2014 posts, i normally have a good 'guessing' of tittle-tattle when it comes to this sector S & W Africa and the Etinde factor in their reasoning made me partly admire COC for what is genuinely a genius move on BLVN although sour to my business ethics as it removes any possible benefit for LTH's bar a discounted return on their original high averages.

Great for fresh STI's and speculators but puts 2 fingers up to the suffering long termers.

I agree with much of what you've written above. It's a break-up bid, from what I can see. As a long term shareholder myself who has averaged down heavily, I'm willing to vote for it, however. I don't see the alternative offered by BLVN's existing management as being more attractive - we certainly haven't seen any evidence that they can achieve premium prices for the assets sold or farmed out. All prices achieved are relative to market conditions at the time, and no-one can argue that they've been anything but a disaster.

[cyan] 06/3/2017 11:15

40p was mentioned on this board as pure speculation. There are some, myself included, who thinks 50p plus more likely in the end.

[loglorry1] 06/3/2017 11:15

@Kev I don't think 40p is the upside target. I said that CoC probably think they can get at least that and so saw it as worth getting involved sub-30p as quite a bit of protection. Obviously if Etinde goes ahead and appraisals go well then the upside is much higher.

If vote fails I think they'll try again.

[fatnacker] 06/3/2017 11:14

durby

"

EurOil will receive a 3.5% royalty from GDC Bomono's production share of hydrocarbons, with an aggregate cap limiting the total royalty payments to US$20 million.

"

[kev0856153] 06/3/2017 11:03

If 40p is the upside target then what is the downside?
Will COC keep buying if the shares drop down again? This vote is so important. If the board win then surely the share price drops like a stone.
I'm not convinced these shares represent good value at this price after the big rise in the share price.

[le_commissaire] 06/3/2017 11:01

Log

Totally agree but something not quite right with adding the COC related disclaimer regarding cancellation. That would have been agreed with Foo so it does not tally 100% but then i do have OCD with contracts so maybe i am just reading into it too heavily.

"In the event that any of the resolutions requisitioned by Crown Ocean Capital P1 Limited at the forthcoming Bowleven General Meeting on 14 March 2017 are passed, VOG has the right to terminate the Agreement"

Not "all resolutions', ANY resolutions.
Maybe just a typo but something is making me think outide the box on this one.

Apologies for the 80's estate agent metaphors i use in my posts as it's a bad habit :)

[loglorry1] 06/3/2017 10:57

The RNS didn't say BLVN have a way out. My view I'm afraid is Bomono probably worth what they got. Hopefully CoC can get rid of the rest and operator-ship at a similar level. I doubt very much that CoC had much if anything in their valuation for Bomono. I know Bowleven have been bigging it up in their presentations but as I posted before they did the same with Etinde.

I suspect CoC have a value of cash + carry + (what Etinde sold for last time) * a safety margin. That works out around about 40p a share and I suspect they didn't mind buying up to that value with the hope of perhaps releasing more.

Hopefully folk here today who were in the Kevin Hart camp are starting to realise what the reality is rather than the dream KH sold them.

Worth noting if you have already voted for the BoD (or CoC) and have changed your mind on today's news you can change your vote by notifying your broker. Votes are only locked in after the deadline.

Log

[cyan] 06/3/2017 10:54

Its al right for VOG but no escape for BLVN. Well done KH.
I will open a bottle of champagne when you get the boot.

" -- In the event that any of the resolutions requisitioned by Crown Ocean Capital P1 Limited at the forthcoming Bowleven General Meeting on 14 March 2017 are passed, VOG has the right to terminate the Agreement."

[kev0856153] 06/3/2017 10:49

It's a leap of faith holding onto this after a 50% rise is it not?
What if the board win! What if oil goes below $50 again?

I'm looking to get in but I'm not going to pay more than 30p

[gark] 06/3/2017 10:48

VOG have a way out but does BLVN? By keeping operatorship, does this make life more difficult for COC?

[guy_fawkes] 06/3/2017 10:42

Management stripping their own assets before COC get their foot in the door.
Bit like taking a suicide pill.

[deanroberthunt] 06/3/2017 10:36

there's a way u can win, simply convert your stock from BLVN to VOG, as the deal is better for her......far more upside in VOG....

[cyan] 06/3/2017 10:26

Have you ever considered Le_com, that KH may not be so bright as some have thought?

If it looks like a POS and smells like a POS; it is most likely a POS.

[loglorry1] 06/3/2017 10:25

le_comm I can only think that KH and crew were forced to announce this deal before the vote. There are perhaps legal reasons as to why they had to. Don't forget the board have almost certainly written in 12months of pay and bonuses into their severance packages. Hiding this sort of deal before the vote might constitute gross misconduct resulting in them losing this.

[le_commissaire] 06/3/2017 10:20

rossannan

If you where fighting your corner and a 7ft wrestler who had the support of the crowd was in the other, would you announce a deal like the VOG one?

That would make Hart a special type of lunatic. Feathering the nests is one thing but
he is not that silly. I am outside the box with the Bomono announcement this morning and i am trying to get my head around what his angle is as there will be one.