Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[le_commissaire] 03/3/2017 13:33

Log

If you consider 3m shares 'a small number of shares', then i bow to your playfield :)

As far as the share price value on action of a COC win or a BLVN stay?

Simple in my eyes, the share price will drop on either result.
The reason for me stating that is my own personal opinion that for all the "COC are saviours" brigade, most will
sell into any rise on the day post results. You know that, wshak knows that and Turney knows that.

Let us call a spade a spade and a trade a trade.

Traders who are buying for a COC win will sell, walk away and not give a jot whether BLVN is kept as a trading company, a cash and carry or Disneyland Cameroon.

[kbrook] 03/3/2017 13:31

I'm in a right pickle,don't have a clue who to vote for, not that my holding will make much difference. If I hold and the board win the price will probably drop, if COC win I risk getting shafted or as Le Com I think suggested the share being suspended.
I was really hoping for another option to come along but that now looks unlikely so I think I will probably sell next week, it seems the safe thing to do.

[billytkid2] 03/3/2017 13:30

It isn't just COC buying recently. There will be lots of other investors seeing COC purchases and activism as a short term catalyst for the share price. They will likely sell on a BOD win.

[winnet] 03/3/2017 13:27

If CoC lose the vote then it's natural to assume we'd go back to that level. That's not spreading fear that's just being logical and rational.

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Sorry don't get the logic. Must be me being thick.

For the price to fall you need more sellers than buyers. Assuming COC lose, the only way that the share price falls back to the previous level is if COC sell down their holding.

Assuming the BOD fans hold.

If COC sell their holding down, then yes you are right. However, it is my thinking that they will either try again [and buy more] or reach some sort of status quo with the BODs (like a seat or two on the board).

Now, encouraging people to sell now, takes their vote away and effectively gives it COC. Trying to suggest the price will fall on a COC loss, to me, isn't logical.

[billytkid2] 03/3/2017 13:12

Winnet I think it is fair to assume we will see a decent drop if the BOD win. The stock was trading at cash value before COC turned up. In the absence of fresh news on the assets a lot of short term investors that have bought over the last few weeks will exit.

[loglorry1] 03/3/2017 13:12

winnet as WShak says anyone selling is likely selling to a "for" voter here.

I think you are using Trump'esque language like "spreading fear". Nobody is doing that. Before CoC came along the share price was down in the low 20s. What's lifted this is CoC's activism. I think that's hard to deny. If CoC lose the vote then it's natural to assume we'd go back to that level. That's not spreading fear that's just being logical and rational.

I could argue that statements like "CoC will run off with all the cash" is equally unfair and emotive.

[winnet] 03/3/2017 12:52

Theres been no RNS release to suggest JPM and Artemus have sold?

I'm sure they have an obligation to notify at below 5%?

Spreading fear that the share price will dive if COC lose, is not very fair.

For it to fall, COC associated holders would have to sell. I repeat, it's unlikely COC would cut their nose off to spite their face.

Another point to make is there is still another 7 trading days before the vote. At an average of 3 million shares per day being handed over, that could mean another 28 million shares or 8% of the vote still to change hands. Theoretically.

[wshak] 03/3/2017 12:29

Log,I think it's fair to say that anyone selling out today in fear of what COC will do is probably selling to someone who will vote in favour of their resolutions. Anyone supportive of the board should hold their shares if they are willing to take a hit in the share price if they survive, imho.As far as I know, BLVN management have no institutional support. Those that used to support them have sold out.

[winnet] 03/3/2017 12:28

agree Log, they are trying hard (both sides - particularly COC and the traders through the BBs) and i have no idea which way it way go.

Lots of 0.02%s could swing it. Say 1000 Pis control 2%. That's could be crucial.

But who knows.

Look at the referendum result! Another case of turkeys voting for xmas! It was 2% that swung it!

[loglorry1] 03/3/2017 11:51

IMHO more PIs who do vote will vote for the resolutions not against. A few noisy voices here won't make much difference. Any remaining institutions will vote for the resolutions. Bowleven may be spending a lot of money canvassing votes but I don't think that many votes will be swayed by that. From attending a couple of AGMs all the private investors there were furious with the BoD.

winnet XX,000 even if XX=99 is 0.02% of the shares outstanding.

The simple fact is that if BLVN felt comfortable of a win they wouldn't even be trying this hard. They must feel pretty tired having to do some work each day now. Just as well there are so many employees.

[durby] 03/3/2017 11:38

Is it me or there are a couple of folks on the other not so honest fella managed BLVN forum who seem to be on company payroll to post good things about KH when there is nothing good to say about him?

[wshak] 03/3/2017 11:29

Log,

I disagree.

This battle will be won or lost by the number of smaller holders who vote. Every vote is important.

[slipanchor3] 03/3/2017 11:29

A sleeping partner with no input and 40 employees, we probably know what KH was doing but what the hell was the rest of them doing.

[belo horizonte] 03/3/2017 11:27

Regarding the information black out if COC prevails, we suffered that for the better part of last year with Hart, then found out there had been another huge drop in cash reserves and very little in terms of reward for it. Exploration is a risky business but the shareholders expect an honest assessment of results with the same degree of publicity as successes are given. Recently we have had a flurry of press releases, none of which actually gives any confidence in the BOD going forward.
This vote is not an all or nothing. COC should have at least one seat on the board, despite the propaganda given out by the company to the contrary. The board needs a good shake up. By all means maintain a full board but vote off those that have let you down. Your choice who those people are. It seems to be a fairly obvious who has been given a fair run and now needs to go.

[loglorry1] 03/3/2017 11:20

winnet you wrote:-

because all you are doing is handing the shares to COC who keep buying pre vote. That's what they want. DONT DO IT

Assuming you have say less than say 1 million shares your holding is largely immaterial to the outcome. You may like to take this as a moral stance but as I said the correct trading strategy given this view would be to sell as explained above.

If you are a large holder and can influence the outcome then things change a bit but I don't believe many private investors, including me, are in that position.

At the end of the day its about making money and not about supporting your beliefs.

[winnet] 03/3/2017 11:03

If you hold this view the correct trading strategy has to be to sell now and if KH wins buy back cheaper

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because all you are doing is handing the shares to COC who keep buying pre vote. That's what they want. DONT DO IT!

It doesn't follow that the share price will collapse if the BOD win. I cannot see why COC would sell their holding down. IMO

[loglorry1] 03/3/2017 10:54

Guys I think we've covered this before. Many don't trust CoC as a better option but all agree the current lot are terrible. If you fall into that category your best strategy is to sell into the recent strength. Why would you hold for the vote in the hope that KH and crew win and the price dips back down. If you hold this view the correct trading strategy has to be to sell now and if KH wins buy back cheaper. If CoC win you'd have got out and avoid your perceived risk of them stripping the cash out of the company.

I really don't understand why someone with a small number of shares who supports Hart would hold going into the vote. Le_comm has realised this by the sounds of it.

It seems to me that those holding now are "hoping" for a better option than Hart which is not CoC. I simply don't believe that is one of the options here.

Log

[donpatrol] 03/3/2017 10:36

I`m not a fan of the current BoD but I would be very afraid of what COC getting control of the company. It would mean a complete information blackout, they could do what they want with the assets and cash. No-one to police them, what would be stopping them stripping the assets and cash by other means that would not return the value to the share holders -- nothing.
The spin that they are going to sit and wait for Etinde to realize its potential is just BS. No way are they going to have their money tied up for the next 5 - 10 years waiting on Newage/Lukoil to decide to do something with the asset.
Nope, they will firesale, and the PI is in for a royal screwing.

[sivadnoj] 03/3/2017 10:24

Wshak - I'm sure he is right. My comment was a tongue in cheek observation on BLVN's tendency to keep issuing RNS's to save their skins.

[winnet] 03/3/2017 10:22

Shak - Bow have been involved in discussions so this journos comments seem wrong... They were involved in a recent OCM (Operating Committee Meeting) on Etnide and AFAIK will form part of the technical workshop to discuss this Guinea idea.

"The Cameroon government and Etinde joint venture partners agreed at a recent OCM to convene a technical workshop to discuss development options for Etinde, including gas-to-power, FLNG and the potential to process Etinde gas and associated liquids production in Equatorial Guinea."

[le_commissaire] 03/3/2017 10:19

hernando

The problem with that first sentence is that i posted a hit list of the BLVN board over a year ago and have repeatedly called for 80% of the gravy train old school chums to be given their marching orders.

That is the elephant in the room for COC supporters in that they do not understand that pi's, hnwi's, uhnwi's and ii's that will vote againt the resolutions in whole or part, also do not wish for the current impasse and excess feathering and poor decision making of the existing BoD to carry on.

In simple terms, both the COC supporters and the BoD supporters actually want the same changes but from 2 very different angles.

While i have repeatedly scourned the BoD and basically lost patience recently, i also do not believe that the answer is to divy out the chests and make merry with non )&G investments (whoever is a director of them), nor do i think that this asset raid will result in anything other than every other strip i have seen over the years.

Good comment earlier saying that the BoD have sleepwalked into this as they have and if they lose the company then they have only themselves to blame, but COC or anyone of their ilk is not the answer. You do not cut off the nose to spite the face.

As i said in a recent post, the likes of Wshak, Log etc who have experience with BLVN as either ex or current shareholders have my respect for their views, but conversely winnet and others on the BoD support side are equally experienced with the companies past.

All my views like theirs are merely my personal opinions and none of us can tally the result, but for me i have never liked this type of approach and have seem many good asset rich companies be ripped apart like a rotting carcasse.

I personally feel COC will take the vote and even though i am no longer a shareholder after my recent tranche sale, i sincerely hope that all the promises will be fruitful for any remaining shareholders post CoC.
Normal people with pensions, families, young investors... should be respected by whoever is in control which is why when we float the CBM company this year i will be personally replying to every single shareholder no matter what the level of enquiry.

I am no saint but there is a level of governance that Hart and Co have completely disregarded and it may be their coffin nails as a reward for that.

[cyan] 03/3/2017 10:19

I agree winnet. My hope for a third way is unlikely to happen ahead of the vote. Ideally I would like to see a bigger , competent company take us out.

[winnet] 03/3/2017 10:15

The only people voting against the resolutions will be true KH believers. There won't be many of them.

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I don't think this is true at all. There may be many people willing to vote KH out, but i cannot see an equal number voting to hand control to COC.

But i don't know, i have no inside track.

[wshak] 03/3/2017 10:14

sivadnoj,

He's right. BLVN are no more than a sleeping partner in Etinde. They have no input at all.