Biffa Share Discussion Threads

[blindfaith2] 11/12/2006 11:21

Wat - I fear that this is showing the normal trend of a good private company going public insomuch that the share price is soaring and the profit taking will appear pretty soon.

After all a quick 10 - 15% or so is handy money to make in a couple of weeks so I would expect a nasty dip before longer term investment wins the day and a steady healthy trend forms which I hope will be upwards !

[watwungyi] 11/12/2006 10:02

Slow and steady rise. But I expect the price to dip a bit as there might be profit taking. Or some notice and jump in the band-wagon and push the price ever higher. Perhaps it's good to hold I think. Any suggestion?

[watwungyi] 10/12/2006 23:52

Thanks for reminding me to look at the report, hollington. But can I ask you if you have noticed the company's definition of gearing? They use (debt/debt+equity) which gives them a low gearing of 36%. But conventional definition is (debt/equity) and that gives staggering gearing of 57.1%. If you don't believe me and care to work out yourself, check the balance sheet. So what justifies management's use of different definition of gearing? But even if I take 57.1%, I still think it's ok for a company like Biff in the early stage and has definite growth potential. But we should ask why they choose to use unconventional defn? We are putting our money there, can't take anything for granted.

[watwungyi] 10/12/2006 21:56

I believe Biff is a good one to invest in this environment. But it's always healthy to be skeptical or cautious. No management is prone to error. But last week directors purchase seem to me a good sign at least if the directors decide not to exercise options in the first year and buy at market price to convince the shareholders that their priority is shareholders' interest.
But slight caution here; some of Biff's division is in industrial sectors and any economic downturn could be a cause of concern. But it seems to diversify its portfolio. Let's just our fingers crossed.

[luderitz] 10/12/2006 18:49

Like some others I did have a fairly negative feel In my water about the market next year which Bolton's comment seemed to confirm. However Biffa do seem to tick some relevent boxes (just started to look at them) so will continue to look at them.

[watwungyi] 10/12/2006 13:21

Yeah, it's a dangerous time to be careless. I still don't understand why Corus is still take-over target considering global economic slow would reduce demands for base metals. Americans've been complaining about Chinese devalued currency which they blamed for trade deficit which constitute -6%of GDP. And current theory is that they've been trying to reduce the gap to 1.5% and that would require devaluing dollars to 50%. But then wait, it doesn't come without any side-effect. The devalued dollar means eternally optimistic shopoholic easy-going American consumers will demand less from its trading partners. Or demand more from market less espensive than its current suppliers(mainly China, Jap and Europe). So I am expecting a slight slowdown in current export to US from these three regions and a slight increase in certain areas which had been producing cheaper than those. Perhaps India, Vietnam or some presently-emerging markets.
If I remeber correctly, when dollar dropped like a stone in March April, gold and base metals rallied. Then Fed had to make suggestion that they raise interest rates and that followed May-June selloff. I wrote recently to GSK holders that the shares will not come back to 1500 level until at least next year this time. But I now think the shares could go even lower. So I would put my money in low gearing utility stuff like electricity and water and waste management like Biff for now. Not even pharmas are safe, except perhaps SHP which is a specialist drug company. But I like investing in this environment. It really is cool. Unlike 2003-2006 where an idiot can put his money anywhere in FTSE 100 and can get good return around 20-30% a year.

[luderitz] 10/12/2006 00:06

If Bolton's proved right then I don't think It will be just miners/insurance and financials that will suffer IMHO.

[hollington] 09/12/2006 17:48

In two years time we will see If I am correct,and saying "totally enjoy being independent" never, never, not in a million years stopped anyone from taking a pop at you.I stick with what I said, 450+ or take over,oh and who is katie price and asparks?

[theband] 08/12/2006 23:21

your silence condemns you..........as i thought, you are katie price and asparks in disguise as an old fart.

[theband] 08/12/2006 22:53

hollington, i out you as a serial ramper in the old fart disguise

[watwungyi] 08/12/2006 21:47

I don't think take-over is any likely in forseeable future. They just demerged from strent and ceo sais on bloomberg that they 'totally enjoy being independent'. But it's a good stock to hold for sure.

[watwungyi] 08/12/2006 19:19

They must have been waiting for the result to come out.

[watwungyi] 08/12/2006 19:17

All the signs are very good. Directors are simultaneously buying at market price.

[watwungyi] 08/12/2006 15:44

300 is very close guys.

[beaudelaire] 08/12/2006 14:34

Fair enough roger1 -
There is a good logic in your investment decisions.

[rogerl] 08/12/2006 13:49

beaudelaire-
no I am happy with 315 for qdg, I may revise upwards (or sell) if it breaks 315 with some conviction. I agree with anyone who says I am not setting aggressive enough targets but my aim is to achieve a year on year growth on my total investments of 10%. I am retired so as long as my SIPP beats annuity rates I think I am ahead of the game.

[beaudelaire] 08/12/2006 12:26

roger1 -
It looks as if QDG is only short of 7.5p to achieve your target.
Do you mean 415p by March ?

[rogerl] 08/12/2006 12:01

watwungyi- Thanks for that I am not keen on the business that Debt are in but am interested in Vietnam. The only other aim stock I have is QDG for which I have a target of 315 by March.

[rogerl] 08/12/2006 10:22

beaudelaire -
Clearly would have been good to take profits yesterday and buy back in today, so I would have more shares for the same original investment. Unfortunately I am not a trader. My investment style is to have a clear idea why I am buying a share and only sell if the basis for that idea changes or looks fairly certain to change. I also set target prices with time scales. Will usually sell when the target is reached or when the share under performs against my target. If a share outperforms my target I usually set a new target on the basis of following gains and cutting losses. In the case of Sola it has overperformed against my target by miles (I originally set a target of 300 for next March, I revised this to 400 before the recent rises so I am well ahead of target. I have not yet decided whether to raise this further as I await events so unless the share price drops to say 350 I will not be selling for a while.

This may not be the best way to make loads of money but it works for me.

By the way Biffa has just reached my initial target so I now await events for a week or two.

[watwungyi] 08/12/2006 10:16

To roger1
If you are interested in aim shares, I am looking two particular ones. They are investment trusts investing in Vietnam. I see Vietnam a real opportunity since Bush's visit last month. It's the fastest growing economy in Asia after China and India. An investment trust investing in Indonesia give +500% in four or five years. And Vietnam to me is a next big thing. There are two investment trusts VOF by vinacapital which has been rising steadily but premium is a bit too high. On the otherhand, they are well positioned and perhaps the first trust fund listed in Aim. Next one is VMH which I know less except it's premium is less than former. Lehman or Goldman Sachs also has OEIC for Vietnam. So something to think about.
If you are only interested in UK stuff, I think DEBT, DEBTS and Debt free direct are worth looking at. You know what's being found and reported about the level of debt in this country.

[beaudelaire] 08/12/2006 09:26

roger1 -
Remember what I said yesterday about sola.
Look at the share price now.
Wasn't it better taking profits yesterday ?