Biffa Share Discussion Threads

[watwungyi] 17/12/2006 23:25

Guys
Watch out for the announcement that new landfill site in NIreland (Cottonmount) is open. This would boost the revenue. Opening expected at the end of this month. Perhaps the directors already knew the latest and started accumulating their shares.

[warranty] 15/12/2006 20:03

Understandable that the price would fallback a little but agree 300p should be a good support level now. I'm not really fussed short term as these are tucked away for the longer run when I'm expecting the first number to be at least a 4 and the yield around the same.

[watwungyi] 15/12/2006 13:49

pmorrell,
I only have limited understanding of technical stuff. But what you said sounds reasonable. All the directors buy at average market price of ~287. So expectations are that it shouldn't go below ~300. But fundamentals are sound. The financial strength and profitablity of the company should be clearer after full year result.

[pmorrell] 15/12/2006 13:18

I think we have a support level here now of 300 with 310 being the resistance. Its had a few goes this week at cracking 310. May stay in the 300-310 range until after xmas when the sellers and profit takers have gone. Would be nice to think that once over 310 it will move up to around 340

[watwungyi] 15/12/2006 11:03

Profit taking inevitable. But look at the volume. Very thin.

[warranty] 14/12/2006 23:23

Agree rogerl,which is why I'm holding tight.

[rogerl] 14/12/2006 16:51

I suspect that many of the recipients of shares after the demerger are unlikely to want to hold shares in a waste disposal company, having previously having their money in a utillity, hence the market has had and may still have plenty of sellers who want out and as the price increases most of these will disappear. As this happens the share price will rise as increasingly those attracted to smaller companies move in. I can see no logical reason for those interested in BIFF as an idependent company to sell at this stage of the game so I expect the price to gradually rise as the sellers dry up.

[warranty] 13/12/2006 21:04

Can't see that patricktrfc, I think we're probably at or near the current high for now unless of course we get real rumours of a bid.

Having said that I don't see us falling much below 300p again either so maybe we've set a new floor for the next upswing.

Hope you're right though just the same.

[patricktrfc] 13/12/2006 12:26

Pife


If you look at the RNSs the directors have been buying in for cash I believe. Also broker Seymour Pierce has said in yesterday's Telegraph that they are a sitting duck as a takeover target.

That's why I bought in yesterday, think it will finish 2006 at at least 3.40

P

[pifedayo] 13/12/2006 10:58

I see that AMVESCAP are in for a tad over 10% and that the Directors have been buying in - probably options.

Does anyone know if they are in the running for a major contract as rival Shanks have also risen sharply lately?

[hollington] 12/12/2006 14:01

Well done watwungyi, you got to the point of what I was saying earlier in my comments,but you got there in your own way (which is the best way).

[watwungyi] 12/12/2006 13:49

So we might not see this below 300 level, except perhaps when the entire market is down severely. If it eased back to 300, my advise is just buy.

[watwungyi] 12/12/2006 13:46

By 2010, if its operating growth grows steadily at modest 7.5-8%, and no new significant amount of shares are issued, the enite enterprise should have ~£2500 million. And if we take it's weighted average cost of capital(debt+equity), (the calculation is based on following assumptions: this is relatively less riskier thread and I take it's beta to be 0.7, if you look at unilever of similar defensive stuff you get beta between 0.5 to 1, and uk economy inflation remains more or less the same level for the same period, which i think is possible, the weighted average cost of capital is about 7.46%. So if you discount it back to four or five years back which is where we are now, you get something like ~500 at least. So I think this is a great great stuff to own for years to come. I have overweighted this in my portfolio.

[watwungyi] 12/12/2006 13:34

yes hollington.

[hollington] 12/12/2006 13:21

Watwungyi,Perhaps my estimate of 450+ in two years is a little on the conservative side?.

[patricktrfc] 12/12/2006 09:34

In for 3000, hoping for a nice Christmas bid or a steady rise to 340ish

P

[rogerl] 11/12/2006 16:00

watwungi- assumptions look OK to me, chances are someone will bid in due course IHO

[watwungyi] 11/12/2006 14:51

But are my assumptions founded?

[watwungyi] 11/12/2006 14:51

If operating profit rises modest 8% annually and become steady to 5% after say five years. I estimate this share is discounting 86%. That means it should have a fair value of at least 500p. Even then I am excluding investment income and finance income and work out solely on core operations.

[rogerl] 11/12/2006 14:25

some pretty hefty buys going through.

[watwungyi] 11/12/2006 14:04

Biff stated its net debt £352M. But does anyone know what interest rates they are paying? I am trying to work out as much detail analysis of this company as possible. I'll post it afterwards if any of you wants to have a look.

[watwungyi] 11/12/2006 13:59

ex dividend date i think is 29th December.

[onlyonestorm] 11/12/2006 13:52

The directors have declared an interim dividend of 2.1 pence per ordinary share
to be paid on 2 February 2007 to shareholders who are on the register at 29
December 2006. The cost of the interim dividend will be #7.3 million.


Stormy

[retroz3] 11/12/2006 13:48

Hi

Anyone know when BIFFA goes ex-dividend?

[hollington] 11/12/2006 13:34

As I said up and down along the way.If you fear a market shakeout these will suffer just like any other stock .Biffa is a very mature buisness,but as you say watw early stage plc.I take your point about gearing but this should come down over the long term.I'm in for the long haul and that in my opinion will be the best way to fully realise maximum benefit.