Bidstack Share Discussion Threads

[angel333] 30/7/2019 14:29

Hi stoaty1. I would tend to agree with you.
The Board of Limited comprises of 3 people.
The Board of Group has 6 directors.
Not entirely sure what the difference between Limited and Group are at present?
A fair few advisors, but so long as they deliver introductions then that can work.
All looking okay for me.

[stoaty1] 30/7/2019 14:21

Angel333, your comment about leadership teams failing to execute is so true. However, if there is a team that is likely to execute, then the Bids board/management must be right at the top of that list!

[angel333] 30/7/2019 14:07

I am enjoying this board more than most. maybe it is so active simply as the opportunity is immense.

Statements like 'I think £5 is cheap, if this pans out' do make me laugh.

It is a true enough statement but no different to '5p is too expensive, if this fails to pan out'

Just the word of caution... Opportunity abounds, but most leadership teams fail to execute and deliver than succeed.

[hazl] 30/7/2019 11:58

What is the future for digital advertising within gaming? What opportunities have yet to be capitalised upon, and what new technologies will be developed?

'There are a lot of opportunities that have yet to be capitalised on and with cloud-gaming services on the horizon we expect more opportunities to present themselves.

Being able to accurately measure both the watching audiences on streaming services and the impact of advertising on this secondary audience is something that would be hugely valuable. The ability to buy space directly via a channel or in-game at a peak time when a major influencer or esports team will be playing a particular title is something that would add immense value for brands.

In terms of new technologies, the big shifts are likely to come from 5G and cloud gaming but advancements in AR could also transform location-based AR gaming. What was started by Pokemon Go and recently updated with Harry Potter Wizards Unite could be taken to a whole new level with upcoming releases such as Microsoft’s Minecraft Earth. The opportunity for brands to create adventures within a universe like this could be huge'

[hazl] 30/7/2019 11:58

At least we have some helpful posts come from it.
Worthwhile posts.

[mcfly79] 30/7/2019 11:51

I'm also a VRS shareholder.

BIDS and VRS are very different but with both you really need to have done research and understand the business to know where they are going and why they justify the current market cap.

Anyone looking at either company for the first time would think they are massively overvalued.

[global nomad] 30/7/2019 11:50

Excellent post mcfly, very clear and detailed, thanks.

[sja123] 30/7/2019 11:48

Oh dear....I did try and warn you about superg1!

This company is barely one year old and putting in place new technology never used at scale before. It has risen from around 6p to today's 33.5p, consolidated for a month or so with no news....it has put together one of the most talented and focused advisory boards I have ever seen....

I couldn't give a monkeys about revenue in year one personally....but each must make their own judgement on that....you don't build leading edge companies with disruptive tech within the overlap of two massive areas, gaming and advertising, by worrying about the first years revenue stream.....they are too busy making a land grab IMO...

I'm looking at a minimum of five years investment here....and am over the moon with year one....and looking forward to the years to come...

Having a realistic time-line for investment takes away much of the day to day worry IMO....

Ignore superg1.....he will gradually wear you down....its what he does....

[zagrosfold] 30/7/2019 11:47

I like that you said "fact" in your last sentence. You obviously see the light :)

[ayl30] 30/7/2019 11:44

Good debate here, keep it going in the constructive vein. I am a holder and it is my single biggest holding, I know it's risky but I also understand the potential if they get it right. I like to see a degree of challenge to otherwise hyped up comments, it brings a sense of reality into the posts, something that is lacking on boards like VRS where posters trash any questioning of the fact that they are all going to be millionaires once the orders arrive!

[stevoc1964] 30/7/2019 11:40

Great post, McFly. Wish I had written it.

[mcfly79] 30/7/2019 11:34

superg,

You raise some good questions on the numbers. I asked them myself when I first researched the company.

FM2018 was the testbed for Bidstack’s technology. FM19 was where all billboards were given over to advertising and fill rates have been pushed (FM19 was released on 2 Nov 2019). We’ve been told that virtually all of the £0.3m revenue arose post floating in mid Sep.

I think the annual run rate for FM advertising at the end 2018 was over £1m. The installed base of FM2019 has increased since (especially with it going onto Xbox game pass for PC recently). So perhaps £1.5m-£2m revenue for 2019.

Dirt Rally 2 sells mainly on Console (PS4 and Xbox One). The 100-200k figure you are picking up is for steam (which is PC only). The game received very good reviews and, in line with previous Dirt games, I expect it to sell over 1 million copies across all formats. Especially given Codemasters’ deal with NetEase to distribute the game in China.

GRID should sell at least 1-2m copies when it launches later in the year.

FM and GRID will also feature as launch titles on Google Stadia in November.

Whilst there is some programmatic selling of Ads, all of the blocks are not yet in place, and I believe a lot of the adverts are current sold in direct arrangements with brands (landlord type arrangement – selling ad space in a certain game for a certain time).

Based on these 3 games and the currently selling arrangements I don’t think the £5.9m would be hit.

However, everything should change when they are fully imbedded into the programmatic system and the programmatic ad money is available to them in Q4.

James has spoken about working in parallel with Game Developers and the Advertisers and getting to a place where things can be announced together (new games and contracts with ad agencies). There cannot sign games if they don’t have the brand spend and the systems set up to serve the adverts. I appreciate that trust in James and the company is required here.

Even ignoring potential new games coming online, the move to a fully programmatic basis will substantially increase the ad spend in existing games.

I agree that Broker’s note are often useless and the Peterhouse note is now very out of date. It does have a few useful bits of information though (which must have been guided by the company to some degree). It predicts that billboard space sold (ad fill rates) will only be 5% in H2 2018, rising to 13% in H1 2019 and 19% in H2 2019.

The 25m potential impressions per day figure in the prospectus is correct. It’s simple maths based on play time. It’s just the number of billboards available to show ads. Asia is not the largest market for FM, Europe is (and is also popular in the Americas). I don’t have the figures in front of me but let’s assume 10m of the potential impressions are for Asia. Therefore, the 1m impressions per day achieved in Asia in December in 2018 would represent a 10% fill rate, ahead of forecast.

This shows the opportunity when programmatic ad spend is up and running. The fill rate and revenue per impression is expected to increased considerably if Bidstack can establish in-game advertising next to other forms of digital advertising (both in the programmatic systems and in the minds of ad agencies). The programmatic fill rates for other types of digital advertising (web site, apps) is very high, sometimes approaching 100% and certainly over 50%. Just think about when you open a website – there is always an ad showing and it’s normally targeted.

The revenue per impression should also go up with the real time bidding for all of the ad space through the programmatic systems (which will allow the ads to be targeted and far more valuable to brands).

The company still believe they will hit full year forecast. To do this they are expecting a large step up in revenue in Q4 when programmatic is fully online. What’s more important to me than the 2019 revenue is the run rate at the end of the year. I’m hoping for a run rate of well over £10m per annum.

Ultimately it comes down to whether the company can get everything working programmatically and convince Ad agencies and brands to accept in-game as a new category. If they can, then I believe the figures will become very large from that point. If they can’t then they may still make reasonable money but won’t justify the market cap. From my research and discussions I believe it will work. Both sides (Games and Advertisers) want it to work and Bidstack is best placed to make it work.

[fudgerella21] 30/7/2019 11:28

Tr1s. Does anyone else find it interesting that we've had no Trl announcements? This must be on a fair few radars by now. There have been many large buys over the last month or so, and regular 25k, 50k and 100k transactions going through. I just find it alittle odd, that noone as taken a slice largest enough to warrant a Tr1!!!

[chessmaster10] 30/7/2019 11:28

To be fair, I think superg1 is raising perfectly valid points.

I've been burnt on AIM before for believing the story, but the company not delivering on the numbers. There is good reason to be cautious. At some point Bids has to demonstrate that the great ideas translate into great revenue and profit.

There's every chance that H1 2019 won't be on target, just look at the numbers that Superg1 has laid out. There is room for doubt there.

BUT.

A significant part of the investment case here is based on Hype, Hope and Potential as JW says.

The target market is immense. Bidstack have first-mover advantage and have assembled a heavyweight team, and they're moving quickly.

What if an RNS were to drop announcing a contract with EA sports for FIFA? That would be transformational.


So, that's the risk. I won't be surprised if H1 2019 is a miss results-wise, with the share price taking a hit. But at the same time the share price could rocket quickly on the right news.

So, you pay your money and take your choice.

[richardjohn10] 30/7/2019 11:23

Its a start up tech company. Previous revenue isn't too relevant to me.Upcoming news and future revenue is important.

[hazl] 30/7/2019 11:22

'Attention – We recently commissioned an independent study into attention and found that in-game ads outperformed digital display advertising across all of the games we tested. This is because the audience is engaged when they play and can’t block ads, scroll past them at speed or be distracted by other devices. There will be new ways to reach engaged and captive audiences through other mediums and it’s down to advertisers in those fields to discover them.'

JD

[moneygenxyz] 30/7/2019 11:14

I mean I’m expecting 0 revenue.

Timing of revenue is irrelevant. I just know that over it’s lifetime it has potential to generate significant revenues.

If it means I can get more at a lower price later, great!!!!

That’s why I bought in at £20m

That’s why I’d suggest you walk away SG.

Start ups aren’t for you.

[hazl] 30/7/2019 11:14

'Bidstack Appoints Former Grapeshot Chief Technology Officer To Board
(Alliance News) - Bidstack Group PLC said Tuesday it has appointed Derek Wise, former chief ...
Alliance News
2 July, 2019 | 2:16PM
Email Form

(Alliance News) - Bidstack Group PLC said Tuesday it has appointed Derek Wise, former chief technology officer of advertising technology startup Grapeshot Inc, as a non-executive director.

The company also announced the immediate departure of two non-executive directors, John Taylor and Lindsay Mair, who have been on the board since November 2017. Taylor and Mair have stepped down "to pursue their other business interests", Bidstack said.

Wise was part of Grapeshot before it was acquired by US business software maker Oracle Corp, and is now vice president of Contextual Intelligence at Oracle Data Cloud. He joins Bidstack with immediate effect.

Bidstack Chief Executive James Draper said: "Given the attractiveness of our technical offering we have been looking to add a board member who has had experience of building and scaling borderless enterprise technology which has then been acquired by a major Silicon Valley player.

"Derek's technical background at the highest level of gaming, coupled with his intimate knowledge of the contextual understanding of data, is a perfect blend for us and his work as chief technology officer of Grapeshot eventually led to its acquisition by Oracle."

Shares in the company were down 1.7% at 31.21 pence in London on Tuesday afternoon.'

[hazl] 30/7/2019 11:13

We each of us know that it is futile judging new firms by the usual parameters
and fundamentals cannot be applied at the early stages and indeed aren't applicable.

[2prsimo] 30/7/2019 11:11

Is he still prattling on about revenues and placings? Tedium personified

[moneygenxyz] 30/7/2019 11:10

1 million impressions per day for asia ALONE.

I.e 4% of 25 million worldwide for FM.

Makes sense given that the games are western targeted, but shows the potential.

[hazl] 30/7/2019 11:09

WHAT HAS CHANGED...IN THE LAST 12 - 24 MONTHS?

'A lot! We have seen the continued growth of esports and the success of key titles such as Fortnite, Fifa 19, Red Dead Redemption 2 and Call of Duty: Black Ops 4. This has seen the gaming industry become worth more than video and music combined, with a value of £3.86bn – more than double its value in 2007.

The most savvy account planners recognise the opportunities presented by in-game advertising. They’re able to look beyond the misconceptions of the average gamer stereotype being a teenage boy holed up in his bedroom and recognise the diversity of the 2.5 billion global gamers that they should be addressing – 50% of whom are female.

The introduction of 5G and cloud-based gaming services – which is a console free, subscription based approach to gaming – are set to diversify that audience even further in the coming year to 18 months.'

[superg1] 30/7/2019 11:07

So back to my original first thoughts.

Revenue missed in H1 and H2 but to a much greater degree than I thought. Costs higher as they already have 50% more staff than suggest in the note and the number is climbing. High grade highly paid staff going by comments

Which all equates to fund raise post the market seeing the forecast was way off.


All my opinion of course based on details and figures out there reported by Bidstack and Peterhouse.

Peterhouse 25 mill impressions. Update same games 1 mill (for Asia)
Peter house based on 42 games, current run seems to be 9, some low level.

If they using 25 mill as the multiplier for 42 games then discount it, it comes out as a massively different number to 1-2 mill x 9.

Hey ho I know such numbers are a waste of time for the herd as it's all fiction of course. The note is right, spot on as are the pumps of beating expectations H1 but facts are not off course.

Peterhouse staff forecasts

27 by December 2019 and 30 by December 2020

45 already I understand and climbing.

So revenue looks like it will miss by a mile and costs gone up considerably to that forecast.

We'll see when the news drops.

[global nomad] 30/7/2019 11:05

Thanks for the repetitive warnings, we'll bear them in mind when we make our investment decisions.

[arab3] 30/7/2019 11:01

Just like vrs from 1.80. to 70p , bet you saw that one coming !!