Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[peart] 30/4/2021 11:53

I remember you saying that Investographer, I'm a buy and holder too. Say, in a few years if they were paying £3 a share in dividends (wishful thinking perhaps, I know), that would be very nice indeed....

[investographer] 30/4/2021 11:02

I agree, it was all rehashed stuff. Now the share is a bit more popular, a few more pump & dump merchants will be here. Not bothered, as it creates more liquidity. To be honest, I have always stated that I plan to hold this for a very long time & look at is a dividend earner for me & my family. These are once in a lifetime stocks

[peart] 30/4/2021 10:09

Ryanc106 and Investographer - I nearly mentioned you two as well in my post of yesterday - 1281 - as we've all being saying similar stuff or agreeing to similar stuff for months now. I might be wrong but I feel perhaps the twitter poster might have been reading our posts and then re posting our opinions. jmho.
Anyway, it's been an interesting year and over the next few weeks I think we'll see if we are consolidating for a while or moving onwards and up over again for another 12 months. Again I might be wrong (and as said before) but I feel that recently forward earnings from Finncap and the £10 million plus comment by William Hindmarsh, have been playing things very conservatively or down in light of the share offloading plan. I think if the earnings are cracking and the fwd EPS soon is ahead of estimates etc., that that might have been the case. We will see, and obviously it is only my opinion - we will never know for sure...
Let's hope the fun continues! There's no guarantees in this game.

[investographer] 29/4/2021 18:20

Ryan/ Peart- seems like we have been ages now- what a life changing share!Great management

[ryanc106] 29/4/2021 17:18

As ever Peart, we think along similar lines!

Coffee can share

[peart] 29/4/2021 14:27

Sounds very similar to posts I've made about BOTB months ago - even the comparison with Fevertree and 300p EPS! As such, I would definitely concur with the arguments made in this twitter post!! I'm not wanting to sound clever here, just stating the truth. £100 - £120 /share in 12 months is not unrealistic, but it's all about the upcoming earnings and FWD EPS estimates - that will drive the stock or not.
I also thought it an interesting comment that not many institutional brokers are even aware of BOTB. Slater investments addition to the share register will help with that and cracking earnings in a few weeks.
I predict another good year for BOTB from here.....

[n0rbie] 29/4/2021 13:55

Great analysis in that thread!

[jimmygee2] 29/4/2021 13:30

Thread on Twitter by @stocks102 who believes a £100 share price possible in 12 months

[this tea tastes of chicken] 28/4/2021 18:41

The start of "the new financial year" will be on 1 May 2021.

[solooiler] 28/4/2021 18:24

does anyone else keep an excel of their gram follower increases each week? they have been absolutely dire since the start of the new financial year

[investographer] 28/4/2021 18:12

There is no reason why this can not triple in a couple of years providing they can maintain this growth & margins. May have to properly go International for that (USA) & broaden their competitions

[ryanc106] 28/4/2021 17:15

Update next week presumably?

[serratia] 26/4/2021 13:24

Further analysis -

In the above the admin contains the wages and they are not increasing at the same rate as revenue. I subtracted the wages from the admin to get closer to the advertising spend. This I would expect to be more constant as they seem to be very good at matching advertising to revenue. The figures for the ratio of revenue to admin less wages are -
2017 - 3.87, 2018 - 4.19, 2019 - 3.61, 2020 - 4.12, 2021 H1 3.65 (Assumed 2.5% wage increase this year). ie pretty constant so they're matching advertising to revenue as they grow.
Also when they pushed the growth in H1 it didn't result in a significant fall in the ratio so the advertising budget was well spent.
In H2 they've backed down the advertising spend which shows in both my figures and FinnCap's so likely to be back over 4.

[serratia] 26/4/2021 12:59

Another analysis -

One way of looking at the effectiveness of their advertising is to divide the revenue each year by the admin which contains the advertising budget. I would expect the ratio to rise as new customers add revenue and existing customers keep playing. If they were over paying for advertising the ratio might not rise.
The figures - 2017 - 1.99, 2018 - 2.22, 2019 - 2.4, 2020 - 2.81, 2020 H1 - 3.12. This shows a linear progression in the ratio indicating that they're controlling/matching advertising to growth.

[stepone68] 26/4/2021 12:16

"I disagree with the big marketing budget comment. All it takes nowadays is a one promo vid from an influencer and the thing could go viral."

Do you have an example where this happened? I don't deny that influencers play a role - my daughter has the juicer to prove it, but I think you are over-simplifying. Not sure teenage girls are really the market for BOTB anyway.

Also, you are wrong to think that using influencers is a cheap option.

[ryanc106] 26/4/2021 11:37

This is a coffee can share for me (provided nothing drastic changes) and my 2-3 year price target per share remains unchanged at £75-100

[farnesbarnes] 26/4/2021 07:17

I disagree with the big marketing budget comment. All it takes nowadays is a one promo vid from an influencer and the thing could go viral.

[peart] 26/4/2021 07:10

Sorry for lack of reply spann_703 - I've been very hectic of late - mind elsewhere! There are no guarantees in the stock market game, we have to rely on the management to find growth. If, as you suggest, web traffic is stabilising, is it temporary, are management happy with current traffic and are extracting more sales per customer, etc., - who knows? They have said that the growing database of customers is very valuable for other strategies/considerations. All will come out in the wash over time. We have a trading update probably next week, if history repeats and actual annual earnings in June. Those pieces of information will paint a picture. I think we have good managers in this company.

[ccraig69] 25/4/2021 20:35

These sites in my experience on traffic are not very accurate

[solooiler] 25/4/2021 20:01

it already is international. thats why you have 20% of players international... If you want to do a specific market you need a big marketing budget

[investographer] 25/4/2021 19:59

Been here since last April circa 4 quid a share, my largest investment.I have been told that 80% of players are from U.K.Just see where the winners come from. There are a few European winners now. Still plenty of growth in the U.K. to chase, then Europe, then rest of the world.Personally, I would like them to take this format to USA. American football for example. That would be the game changer

[spann_703] 25/4/2021 17:03

Not one response to my post #1259.

Surprising, as this board contains some articulate and considered posters who have struck me as willing to engage in debate. I'd like to think this isn't a blinkered forum, where only posts of great optimism and eternal hope are welcome.

To the regulars Pearce, TTToC et al -you discourse very eloquently and often as to the progress of the company. Where do you think continued growth is going to come from?