Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[solooiler] 24/2/2021 08:32

???
My quibbles are as ever that this is a company where most people lose what they put in. A demerit good that should be heavily regulated. I hope the upcoming gambling act review fixes this

The statistics on web traffic are VISIBLE. 1.7m in january down from 2.8m in August and a overall falling trend throughout.

Sorry, that is just what the numbers are. If this has peaked from covid then the numbers could get worse from here

[3ootuk] 24/2/2021 08:31

No buy quote on HL, but you can sell.

[mammyoko] 24/2/2021 08:29

Good luck trying to talk this down. Seem to remember a similar attempt from you back in the summer. FinnCap will want to see clearer outcome for 2021 before making forecast for 2022.

[solooiler] 24/2/2021 08:21

They have not even hard launched the app yet so that is not true. Website viewership has really reduced from the height of lockdowns. Finncap are stupid to not give next year numbers ..... For obvious reasons. If that 1.7 becomes 1.5 becomes 1.1 by the end of 2021 then the financial gearing will reverse quite quickly I would have thought?

The august peak was 2.8 not 2.4 so 1.7 is already a lot worse

[boros10] 24/2/2021 08:20

I have been tracking website visits for a while. It peaked at 2.4m in August, dropped back in the following months before hitting 2.1m in December. In January it dropped back to 1.7m but this is still significantly higher than the 700k visits in February 2020.

[mammyoko] 24/2/2021 08:18

Nothing on the offer. Given the extremely low free float, can see this being squeezed back up now that focus can return to the fundamentals

[mysteronz] 24/2/2021 08:16

Probably all on the app!

[solooiler] 24/2/2021 08:13

Web trends have also been slowing. 2.8 million visits in august 2020 is only 1.7 million in january 2021 explains the finncap 2020 forecast not showing further growth

[pastybap] 24/2/2021 08:13

Not surprised there's no stampede. 400p (quoted) spread is utterly ridiculous, and a disincentive for anyone with less than a 1yr timeline.

[mammyoko] 24/2/2021 08:08

No great stampede for the doors. Why sell at 15x historic earnings? No real news today - just confirmation of what was already widely anticipated.

[solooiler] 24/2/2021 08:05

Not if covid benefited this and real run level is much lower

And it is a website where most people punt money and lose it. A demerit good so to speak. Gambling act review that is keenly looking at revising the gambling act 2005 should be soon and i hope cracks down on maximum spend.

[mysteronz] 24/2/2021 07:54

Even if those EPS are right (they will be light imo) then we are looking at a PE of just under 20.

Bargain for a capital light cash cow.

Not even including cash balances.

Should be 50% higher even if you that take that EPS estimate as gospel

[peart] 24/2/2021 07:41

Do brokers provide their updates etc. after detailed discussions with the company, or are they based upon their own research with limited company involvement? I'm unclear on this one. I guess it's the former as a house broker, but EPS of £1.252 and div of 44p seems a nonsense to me. We've already had 40p! (Unless it's 40p we've had plus 4p of anticipated final div with no mention of another special with it been "special") Also the revenue having surged to £22m is going to be £44m for the full year according to Finncap est, implying zero revenue growth in the 2nd half from the 1st. I think that is highly unlikely - it just doesn't make sense to me. Is this all a case of under promising and over delivering....

[solooiler] 24/2/2021 07:32

But is 2020 boosted by covid? Finncap not doing anyone any favours by not giving a forecast for 2022. The price target is also stupid. This is either cheap with big upside or expensive with big downside, i dont think it is fair value. Nobody is buying this for a measly 10% return with this spread

They need a new broker

[peart] 24/2/2021 07:30

I strongly suspect the company will beat these estimates. I just can't see such a surge in the 1st half, to almost stop surging and plateauing in the 2nd half. 60p 1st to 65p 2nd - just doesn't make sense to me. Still very good regardless.

[shanklin] 24/2/2021 07:25

Finncap this morning, 2021 revenue £44m, EPS £1.252, Dividend 44p.

[mammyoko] 24/2/2021 07:24

FinnCap forecasting eps of 125.2p and target price of £27

[valustar1] 24/2/2021 07:23

Finncap update. Forecast this year now eps 125p. Target price £27.00. No mention of forecast for next year

[peart] 24/2/2021 07:22

Great news that we've got the FSP behind us and a great trading update - all strong. I think most long term holders sensed this was coming, with details confirmed by William Hindmarsh today. What aroused my curiosity was he mentioned cash balances are in excess of £10 million. I guess they are quite a lot higher than this figure currently ( 13.5m??) - perhaps some careful management of information/expectations going on?? We'll see at the year end, just a hunch.... FWD EPS estimates from Finncapp will be coming soon - agreed.

[shanklin] 24/2/2021 07:21

Thank you serratia

I guess the remaining question is what 2021 base the 2022 20% revenue growth would be base on.

With the near trebling of revenue in H1 2021, and hopefully some growth on that in H2, that number is a bit up in the air.

[valustar1] 24/2/2021 07:12

Hopefully we will get a Finncap update this am

[mysteronz] 24/2/2021 07:11

Great news, lets get some good forecasts in now so we can see how undervalued this still is.

Great to see the company not look for a quick buck and reference future benefits for shareholders

[3ootuk] 24/2/2021 07:10

FSP ended. I'm sure any really interested party could still make a bid, but the Board seem happier to keep going as they are seeing as their approach is working extremely well atm.

[serratia] 23/2/2021 17:56

A personal view - Markets don't like uncertainty. Revenue over a number of years has been growing at 15 - 20%/year. If one year they grew at say 30% and the next 5% a natural question would be has it gone ex growth even though the end points are similar over 2 years? The market would be wanting near 30% again so would probably drop its rating.
A strong achievable growth would be my aim. In H1 they pushed things to show what can be done re the bid interest and importantly even though the advertising spend rose gross margin held in the 60% region so they managed the ticket price well.
Admin rose but at a slower rate than GP so OP rose to a higher percentage on sales. So very well managed. They look to be pulling back the growth rate in H2 vs H1 but its growth from a higher base so I'd still see a good EPS growth.
From other figures I see a pretty constant ratio of growth to advertising over the years. Apart from H1 they look to have a balance spending on advertising. Over the last 8 sets of results £x advertising gave £y revenue so they seem to be able to control their growth rate quite tightly.
The figures I see show them increasing/decreasing advertising on a monthly basis to hit a particular level of progress which has led to their 15 - 20% growth rate. If I had to guess they'll look for say 20% revenue increase in 2022.
Their H1 increase in advertising spend didn't result in a drop in margins so they weren't losing out by 'overspending'. I just think they're looking for good constant growth and are working to that end.

Just my view.

[shanklin] 23/2/2021 15:04

Serratia

Per your posts over the weekend, you obviously see BOTB targeting a specific level of growth on an ongoing sustainable basis.

Do you have any view as to why they have chosen this growth rate please? Is it associated with a growth rate in advertising spend beyond which the increases in revenue/profitability are below what they are targeting?

Just curious.. ...whatever they are intending, its obviously going well :-)

Thank you, Martin