Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[peart] 07/8/2020 12:33

Ryanc106 ??

[ryanc106] 07/8/2020 11:30

What Peart said haha

[peart] 07/8/2020 09:33

Either a blow out offer will come or the buyers have been unrealistic bargain hunters whom management have quite rightly brushed to one side.

[peart] 07/8/2020 09:30

Whilst the small companies area can be very risky with several investments perhaps going bust, and the odd few not doing much, when you hit a good one, which this appears to be, the returns can be utterly amazing.

[peart] 07/8/2020 09:28

And as I've touched on before, say £0.9 EPS this year and fwd £1.5 for next year are not unrealistic, this stock could easily be trading at £30 this time next year, maybe a lot higher, as a decent track record will have formed by then.

[peart] 07/8/2020 09:24

I agree, it must be a knock out min £30, otherwise BOTB seem to have hit upon a formula where it is up up and away for a while (a few years at least probably). I saw the video of the chap who won the very smart Merc plus £100k cash, plus £20k cash and he was clearly blown away, saying this is second only to winning the national lottery etc. That has to have potential, and it can, I'm very sure be like a snowball, with it being easier for BOTB to get bigger, the bigger it gets. It's also quite difficult for anyone else to jump on the bandwagon as as the brand gets recognition more and more people will trust it, hence building the barriers to entry for others.

I might be wrong and anything in business can happen, but I see this as a minnow that is now in its breakout period and is going to be a bit like Fevertree, one of the darlings of AIM. It is also now a pure internet based business and profitable growing companies of this type eventually do trade at quite a premium.

[ryanc106] 07/8/2020 07:34

I agree steptoes. I’d be more than happy for any FSP to fall through so we can continue on our growth trajectory.

If an offer is accepted must be knock out... min £30

[steptoes yard] 07/8/2020 05:51

Whilst the prizes are very appealing, the biggest winners will be the shareholders. I'm personally hoping the FSP doesn't complete and that the Board can simply continue that combination of resetting the dial and upping the marketing game which are the key tools to this "licence to print money" of a stock. Very few companies have a CROCI like this one.

[investographer] 05/8/2020 21:48

Web traffic has nearly doubled in two months Https://www.similarweb.com/website/botb.com/#overview

[investographer] 04/8/2020 19:09

The prizes just get bigger & better, car plus 120k cashHttps://youtu.be/ns4a9Csr7vM

[jlstocks] 02/8/2020 18:18

While waiting for the FSP outcome, don’t forget it’s mega prize week on BOTB. Entries close at midnight (Sunday). I’m in :-)

[jeff h] 01/8/2020 14:48

youtube subscribers being added at a rate of knots - 1,500 in June but 6,500 in July.

[mr roper] 01/8/2020 11:32

I entered one of the comps for the first time last week. I can see what the fuss is about. Far more appealing than the national lottery.

[serratia] 30/7/2020 21:13

Over the years they've been given a share price in relation to sales/profits. It is possible to derive these figures ahead of the results. This half they seemed to have settled on a target which equates to a share price when the half year results appear of £21.
Then a bid approach appeared and they increased the customer capture/revenue generation. Now at the end of Q1 the figures indicate if maintained through H2 a target of £25 - 26. They put their foot down after the bid approach and July's figures would target a £32 price. This is probably a push to sway the deal price and I wouldn't expect that level of drive to continue during the rest of the half.
Maybe they were just pushing it to back up their price target. My guess is they're asking for £25, maybe more. If the deal drops away I'd still be looking for £20 at the end of H1 so will add on any drop following a failed bid.

[someuwin] 30/7/2020 20:15

I keep seeing adverts on the TV / Internet etc for BOTB so presumably the number of players must be increasing.

Good for profits and shareholders. But as someone who sometimes enters the competitions, it strikes me that the more entrants playing, the less your chances of winning. i.e there's more chance of someone else getting closer to the ball.

Just an observation.

[ryanc106] 30/7/2020 20:03

Agreed! Getting a bit boring now!

Not selling though, think it’s a fantastic business!

[peart] 30/7/2020 15:44

I'm in agreement Mammyoko and too am ready to be surprised....

[mammyoko] 30/7/2020 13:37

A formal offer would have to be announced promptly. I would think it is perfectly possible to stretch the FSP until they decided it was opportune to announce that discussions were terminated.

A similar situation occurred in SAG in 2018. They announced that they were in a FSP on 21st Sept 2018 and then announced that they were terminating the FSP on 14th December 2018. During that near-three month period there was little if any indication that an offer would ultimately emerge. Every situation is different but I am starting to feel that the length of time that has passed cannot be explained by the complexity of the accounts or the prospects for the business model. It could, perhaps, be explained by discussions over terms with one or more potential bidders but I would (cynically) expect some form of price movement that reflected that.

So the lack of announcement means that no formal offer has been received. As time passes I would have thought that the likelihood of an offer decreases.

I am ready to be surprised and hope that I am. But it is starting to feel a bit stale.

[peart] 30/7/2020 13:03

Mr Roper - I don't doubt that you're right on this point, personally I'm unsure of all the rules of an FSP. However, management have said they have multiple parties involved, and they have recruited Oakvale Capital to assist. I think it's realistic to assume that if talks were called off/were really almost over that the exact timing of this could be stretched to suit management. i.e. the two main bidders have called off for whatever reason, and so has the last, third, realistic bidder. Oakvale are still waiting to hear from someone , who is deemed a non starter but is still going to revert. Between management and Oakvale, under this type of example things could be legitimately stretched, and even then the non starter could end up coming up trumps.

[peart] 30/7/2020 12:51

mammyoko - I would agree that your plausible interpretation of what has possibly happened is a possibility and I think there are many others, we simply don't know. I would have thought however that indicative prices would have been discussed before BOTB announced the FSP, as surely management need to reasonably know that someone is serious before announcing a FSP. We all know that with the share price at £12.50 pre FSP announcement that £15 is derisory, so as I'm typing this my thoughts are evolving and I think that your scenario is unlikely. Perhaps with £25 instead of £15 and I think this might be more realistic, with William and Rupert rightly wanting more. None of us know - we'll all just have to wait and see what happens....

[mr roper] 30/7/2020 12:44

If talks were called off it would need to be announced immediately as its market sensitive information

[mammyoko] 30/7/2020 12:36

On that basis would expect to get an announcement on Monday, 10th August after they have closed the books for July

[mammyoko] 30/7/2020 12:34

One plausible interpretation here:

Only interested parties were PE. They wanted to buy on a forward pe of 20 based on projected earnings of 70p so offered only around £15. William and Rupert called off talks weeks ago but have been holding on until July results are out. Then they can announce that they didn't receive any offers that properly valued the future potential of the business. And, at the same time announce that first quarter trading has been strong and that earnings will exceed forecast.

Some loose holders could then sell this down to £10 which would equate to, say, 12x revised estimates of 80p 2021 eps. That would represent good value for a growing, cash-generative business but one that is, now, unlikely to attract a premium for a possible sale. Earnings could then exceed forecasts for the year and hit 100p and the multiple should increase to 16x leaving them at roughly the level they are now by the end of the year. Provided market conditions don't deteriorate significantly or they go ex-growth.

Any comments?

[3ootuk] 30/7/2020 11:07

Bradford T&A newspaper has the Keighley Mercedes winner in it as a main story.
Good free publicity/product placement.
Big BOTB logos.
Should bring in more punters.