Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[3ootuk] 03/7/2020 10:49

PIs aren't going to determine the outcome here due to the majority ownership.
As more people run projections now there's a potential bid, we can see how the share price might pan out over the next few quarters. Bid or no bid many PIs expect a good 25-50% upside in a well managed growth company. The share price just reflects PIs buying relatively small lots and the small free float available.

[ryanc106] 03/7/2020 09:51

Morning all,

Yep I've just done a dummy trade for my shares and was offered 1550 for 6000.

The max I could buy was £25000 worth @ 1692.

Interesting.

[investographer] 03/7/2020 09:32

Virtually no trades showing, but is ticking up to all time highs.Can still sell 5000 shares no problem, but can not even buy 100 shares.Could be some progress being made with the sale of the company now that the last two months financial figures have been passed on to potential suitors

[peart] 02/7/2020 21:50

I think it depends upon what is agreed, dividends can be cancelled up until the day they are paid.

[investographer] 02/7/2020 20:29

If an offer comes, they will still have to offer a dividend?

[peart] 02/7/2020 19:40

Barring no other news...

[peart] 02/7/2020 18:14

A week to go for a nice dividend to look forward too....

[mr roper] 02/7/2020 16:58

Decent jump at the close there.

[stepone68] 02/7/2020 11:37

Hi All. It was a trade though, right. So someone must have sold them to the buyer. I wouldn't read too much into it.

[ryanc106] 02/7/2020 10:50

It was a delayed publication buy from the 30th June as Roper says.

[ryanc106] 02/7/2020 10:47

Nope you're right Investographer, it was a worked buy @ £15.20 so £136.8k.

[investographer] 01/7/2020 19:56

My mistake!

[mr roper] 01/7/2020 19:53

Trade from yesterday though. More likely a sell.

[investographer] 01/7/2020 18:39

A delayed 9000 Share Buy popped up. That is GBP 136k worth, not punt money ; )

[clanger66] 01/7/2020 13:50

They are running a midweek game now and it's only been run recently. I sometimes play when the email comes in to remind me. They also do a lifestyle competition where you can win watch's, bikes etc. This is a a much lower entry fee and is in the form of a question. Not a spot the ball.

[serratia] 01/7/2020 13:45

The actual figures my spread sheets throw out over the past 4 halves. Revenue /customer £46.2/42.7/39.7/38.9. I've used this half as £38. A slight drift down would be expected as some will slow down after not winning a super car over time.
I could make a case for an increase in profits this half not a decrease as I think I read they're running a mid week game as well. If 20% of players play both games I'd probably be looking at a £30 target but as yet it's an unknown how many are playing both. I have to wait for the half year figures much later this year.

[ryanc106] 01/7/2020 13:32

There's not many businesses that can say they spend £2 to get £30 back! That's a serious sign of quality. I'd worked worked out something similar myself and came to a v similar figure so it's definitely ball park for sure.

If they do show any price weakness I'll be backing up the truck again.

I'd be surprised if the price got smashed though as it's still only valued at 22 x 2021 earnings (Which are probably light in themselves and will more than likely be exceeded)

It's really good value even after the recent rises imo

[serratia] 01/7/2020 13:12

A little further detail. If you take the revenue generation process in H1 last year as 1, in H2 they opened up pushing it to 3.3 in relative terms. H1 this year it's at 5.9.
As I said they can turn it up or slow it down, they've been as high as 8. This half they turned it up in mid May to push the rate up to 6, backed off for 6 days and it dropped back, turned it up at the start of June. Off again mid June, back on last week. They look to be aiming to stabilise it at 6 for this half which gives my previous price target.

[peart] 01/7/2020 13:07

Well done serratia, if what you're saying is correct then a knock out offer would have to be quite a lot higher than where we are today. 1/2 year is end October, so if we were at £24 then, the directors will need an offer that is substantially higher than that to make them interested.

As you say Investographer, there's not many gems like this around, and in my view, always an element of luck when I find one.

[investographer] 01/7/2020 12:32

Amazing research Serratia- I toi am very impressed with this company.Many of us are waiting to see the outcome here.If a deal comes through, it will be great, but I will find it difficult to find another gem like this again.If no deal is announced, I have funds waiting to buy at a discount to today's price. Unfortunately, the illiquid nature of this share, means it will get punished.

[serratia] 01/7/2020 12:17

There's a lot to like about this company. First they've got their revenue generation model working well. They said they'd examined different routes and picked the optimum route. This can be seen in a comparison of the cost to capture customers. I've looked at two other companies. One changed their model as it was costing £70/new customer. Another spends £36 to get a customer but only achieve £28/customer revenue. BOTB spend sub £2 to get £30 revenue.
In addition enough information is available to predict forward the operating profit. My spread sheets have been within 5% of actual on the last three forecasts and I've back tested it over 5 years figures.
We are only 61 days into this half year so they can up the rate or slow it down but as it stands using the ratio to cash generation they been given in the past predicts a share price at the end of this half of £24.
It looks to me that they can work it to a particular target and that's where they are today.

[peart] 01/7/2020 11:08

Perhaps there is a good offer on the table and BOTB is waiting to hear on one or two possible counter offers - this type of stuff could be making matters drag a bit. Obviously all speculation, but fascinating all the same to shareholders.

[peart] 01/7/2020 11:01

If some outfit/s really want this company they are going to have to stump up a decent offer in the short order, in their own best interests. If, say this drags on through July, BOTB, could early August announce hopefully a cracking first quarter which then only puts the pressure on, as another potential bidder could then come in with a higher counter offer, and trump the original front runner, who say is dithering on terms or whatever...

It really depends on who wants it, how keen they are, and whether or not they are prepared to pay. I wouldn't have thought it would take too long to make offers for this company, it's not too complex, but non disclosure agreements have to be signed, accounts and projections etc. have to be forwarded to the interested parties. Then Oakvale Capital may bring in other interested parties to which the same procedures apply. Meetings need to be had etc., etc. before offers can be possibly made and then considered by BOTB.

Whilst we don't know, I'll be feeling less confident of an accepted offer coming in if we are say at 13th July with no news. In saying that something will happen on 15.7.20! It's all speculation, but 13th July is 4 weeks since earnings and I feel that is a sensible and fair time for things to be concluded with this matter one way or the other. ( I appreciate that the 28 day rule does not apply here)

In the meantime shareholders have a nice 20p/share dividend to look forward to next Friday!

[ryanc106] 01/7/2020 10:04

You’re right!

Well if Alexa website traffic/rankings are anything to go by, it seems they have got off to a flyer.

Their ranking is massively up over the last couple of months.

Interesting!

Hopefully not too much longer to wait to find out what’s going on.

[investographer] 01/7/2020 09:49

The rns stated that the interested party was not subject to the 28 day rule.So unfortunately, could drag on for quite some time.I hope the new financial year has got off to a flyer - May & June, that would really help their case.