Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[r ball] 27/8/2013 21:36

hmm. bkg tend to quietly get on things. expect price to rise on any news. maybe there has been some rotation out of bkg to Psn nod tw. which offer better value. as always: no reason to sell.

[bamboo2] 27/8/2013 20:17

Re, the chart, this is looking quite volatile and toppy, it's possible a head and shoulders is forming, if it is, there is a likely target of 1950-2000, (depending on neckline) that could be a great entry or topping up point.

[mozart999uk] 27/8/2013 18:28

Melody 999 . . . With you on that one!

[nw99] 27/8/2013 11:28

Yes dir buy makes sense

[badtime] 27/8/2013 09:29

bit more director buying

[nw99] 19/8/2013 10:54

Bought more today on this small dip

[melody9999] 18/8/2013 23:58

Personally I find one of the most difficult things is to buy more on dips. The trouble is, if you don't get the bottom of the dip, you then have a larger position and you are rapidly seeing your profit dwindle. Now what do you do? I find it easier to buy more of a rising share price.

One other golden mantra for me is not to buy more of any losing positions. ie do not average down.

[bigbigdave] 18/8/2013 06:38

London house prices 'poised to soar 40%'

The capital's surveyors stoke fears of a housing bubble as critics round on the government's Help to Buy scheme

SURVEYORS have predicted that London house prices will soar 40% over the next five years, renewing fears that government policies are stoking a property bubble.

The upturn in the housing market is putting the government under pressure to rethink its controversial Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme, which starts in January. Critics say further taxpayer support could pump up prices to unsustainable levels.

Bovis Homes, the FTSE 250 housebuilder based in southeast England, will underline the recovery this week with a bumper set of results. Deutsche Bank, its house broker, has forecast a 47% leap in operating profits to more than £20m for the first half.

The latest evidence of a potential bubble in London comes from a poll of members by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics), which was not released with its latest housing market report last week.

It found that surveyors in the capital think prices will jump an average of nearly 8% a year over five years - nearly double the 4.2% expected for England and Wales.

"There is no doubt that with the current dynamic in London, and if prices rose 40% over five years, a property bubble would be a risk, although I would be more worried if prices were out of line with supply and demand," said Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at Rics.

"The scope for a bubble outside London is more limited. We have had a long period of static or falling prices and we are only just starting to see them recover because of the availability of mortgage finance."

Rubinsohn emphasised that the 40% prediction was the view of surveyors rather than his central forecast, though he said "these are the people on the ground and they have been up with events".

Ministers played down the risk of a bubble last week, with Eric Pickles, the communities and local government secretary, insisting that housebuilding would pick up to meet the rise in demand.

www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Economy/article1301857.ece

[r ball] 17/8/2013 17:13

aileron:yes see your point re: stop losses. I was nearly stopped out of BKG when the price fell to £7 ish compared to my first entry price of around £8 ish. BKG is one of my best performing investments and is the result of a lot of research. I also have a soft spot for QED and TRY. I reckon QED could reach £1.50 by June. as for BKG I see no reason to sell and is a file away in a bottom draw kind of company. a bit like BATS, which I've held for 24 years!

[aileron] 17/8/2013 16:51

For myself I doubled my position during the dip (now closed) and opened a spread bet (still open). Volatility can be used as an advantage.

[miata] 17/8/2013 10:30

That the MD and spouse added to their £26million+ shareholding convinces me of the upside.

[r ball] 16/8/2013 21:42

i always get jittery after a big price drop? do you sell or increase your stake?

personally i find it best to increase my holding as a share reaches a new high as it demonstrates that your original decision was correct.

PS: why do so many investors average down and add to a losing position?

[choppa] 16/8/2013 11:36

MD and spouse buying yesterday i see.

[worsleybird] 16/8/2013 07:18

The combination of a high London and South eastern exposure and a programme to return a large slug of capital to shareholders means BKG still looks attractive.

The shares have admittedly already done well but a forward pe ratio of 13.1 times for the year to April 2014 is hardly excessive, especially as consensus estimates for 9% and 11% earnings per share growth for the next two years could prove conservative.

A prime landbank gives BKG a MASSIVE competitive edge, one that it will turn into cashflow and FAT dividends for shareholders. Between 2013 and 2021 BKG intends to return £1.7 billion, or £13 per share to investors. The first 15p payment was made in April and a further 59p will follow in September.

Such an ambitious plan does not mean boss Tony Pidgley is resting on his laurels. During the year to April 2013 BKG invested a further £315 million in new land, acquiring ten sites. Eight were in London, representing some 99% of the plots.

A trading statement is due early next month (2 September).

BUY £22.85
DATED 15 AUGUST 2013 SHARES MAG

[choppa] 15/8/2013 20:51

Yep there it is. The divi yield alone makes it a buy imho. I'll be adding on weakness like this

[melody9999] 15/8/2013 20:19

For those of you with reasonable time horizons, then buying around 2000p and holding for 8 years will give you a 65% return.....based on BKG dividend commitment as below:

Second interim dividend payable September 2013 59p
Balance to be paid by 30 September 2015 (first milestone) 360p
By 30 September 2018 (second milestone) 433p
By 30 September 2021 (third milestone) 433p
Total Return to Shareholders 1,300p

This assumes that the share price shows no growth between now and 2021 of course!

[badtime] 15/8/2013 20:17

camt see rates going up this side of an election (wasnt it only last week or week before the new governor of the boe was talking about a few years yet of low interest rates)...dips should provide some buying opportunities

[miata] 15/8/2013 19:47

With the rise in U.K. house prices this year, house-building stocks have been on a tear. But the sector dropped 6.2% Thursday on investors' worries about the prospect of a rise in interest rates, which the new Bank of England governor has tied to falling unemployment. While a rate rise would dent still fragile home-buyer sentiment, there could be gems in Thursday's demolition.

Conditions have rarely been so good for house builders. Consumer sentiment is improving, while government-backed shared-equity programs have rejuvenated mortgage lending. Whereas first-time buyers were all but locked out of the markets in the wake of the financial crisis, lending to property virgins rose 30% year over year in June, making it the strongest quarter since 2007, according to the Council for Mortgage Lenders. That suggests transaction volumes, which are still about 40% below peak levels, could start to pick up as each first-time buyer entering the market tends to set off a chain of sales.

At the same time, house prices are rising, while land values aren't. Banks still aren't willing to lend to many of the smaller developers that bid land prices higher precrisis, which has reduced competition in sales. As a result, big listed builders have been adding to their land banks at knockdown prices, which promises years of juiced up development returns. Taylor Wimpey TW.LN -5.31% says it has been buying land on which it will make record 20% operating-profit margins.

Of course, the ever-rising share prices seen in the first half of the year couldn't stay as a one-way street. At 1.5 times forecast 2013 net asset value, down from a near historic high of 1.7 times on Wednesday, based on Numis Securities estimates, house builders' shares still look vulnerable to shocks.

But investors could be hard pushed to find a better deal elsewhere. For example, Taylor Wimpey at 12 times forecast 2014 earnings looks like a good value considering it is expected to generate 27% earnings growth. And a slower-growing builder such as Berkeley Group Holdings BKG.LN -6.42% at 11% also offers a nearly 4% dividend yield.

[worsleybird] 15/8/2013 19:13

It's a buy in today's shares magazine.

[choppa] 15/8/2013 17:01

Whats the reason behind the drop? Seems a braod sell off in the housebuilders today.

[r ball] 15/8/2013 16:43

its happened before. that's why you have 15% stop losses.

[miata] 13/8/2013 10:06

Year Ending Revenue (£m) Pre-tax (£m) EPS P/E PEG EPSGrth Div Yield
30-Apr-14 1,511.37 323.95 173.89p 12.9 1.5 +9% 82.50p 3.6%
30-Apr-15 1,637.35 362.54 193.66p 11.6 1.0 +11% 238.50p 10.5%