Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 18/6/2014 08:36

Disagree, note of uncertainity in that statement IMV only.

[chinese investor] 18/6/2014 07:18

No Surprises !

[montyhedge] 17/6/2014 20:10

Crest Nicholson record profits today, Crest HQ 2 miles from Berkeley HQ, come on Pidgley knock on Crest's door and bid.

[dr_smith] 17/6/2014 17:51

If you are referring to digital look forecast of 3% EPS growth for y/e apr 2016, I put this down to incomplete data - various consents and planning permissions required before planned dev's can be included in forecasts. IMO :-)

[luckymouse] 17/6/2014 17:32

I might be wrong but looking at the declining forecasts looks like its going to fall a bit on finals

[r ball] 15/6/2014 06:42

90p interim dividend. so expect next weeks dividend to be @ £1.25-£1.45with an acceleration of the divide stream.

[dr_smith] 14/6/2014 20:49

Hi Ricky - region by region inflation rate shown here (scroll down a little bit for chart:


..and I take your point - London and its commuter belt is a different market so different considerstions required.

There has been so much great press recently for property sector, yet has dipped for a while now, so I'm guessing it needs the next round of property co IMS/results etc for market to realise the profits on the horizon with good EPS figures to ram point home.

[rickyvader] 14/6/2014 14:30

Both points taken and I think it will prob bounce back a bit on Monday. This is my largest amount in a share, so I'm hoping it keeps on going for a while. I'm from the north and the property market is completely different to London.. As a property developer myself I'm buying a few buy to let's as I think it will start rising around here over the next 5 years. That said Berkeley is top end London developments so not sure what my point is!

[werty5] 14/6/2014 11:00

Interest rate rises or the threat of them is only a short term problem the fact is there is a shortage of homes in the uk esp in London and the SE and someone needs to build them.

[dr_smith] 14/6/2014 10:26

So let's see, we can have status quo with flat house prices, or demand for new homes, increased sale value of circa 6-8% p.a. less higher interest rate of say .25% and gosh, we are making 5.75-7.75%, that is an extra profit to usual profit margin...and avoiding boom and bust. In my book I know tincey wincey interest increase doesn't mean demand for new houses goes away.
I'm happy here and will wait patiently to say to 'told you so' to the short-sighted sellers...All IMO. :-)
So Ricky, they are kicking their own butt, they are the ones to miss out on future gains, where are they going to put the money with like low risk and similar gains - seriously, where?

[rickyvader] 14/6/2014 09:43

Well we got our butt kicked on friday. Guessing the interest rate rise comments didn't go down too well

[dr_smith] 13/6/2014 09:15

My own strategy is likely similar, looking for long term growth, but taking advantage of short term opportunities, though I don't have fixed cut off points, more a set of calculated figures to balance along with gut feeling.
As you say, each to their own, with main thing being able to sleep at night without worry.
Sector recovery temporarily on hold today with warning on interest rates.
I read this as a stabilising influence to avoid boom and bust,so good for me as a long term holder, but with sector share price prices down today market seems to be led by short-termers spooked by their own shadow. All IMO :-)

[werty5] 12/6/2014 19:03

Yes I expect 20% on BKG will take a year or perhaps even longer because I got my timing wrong and brought at what now seems a bad moment. However I remain bullish on the sector and expect to see a nice recovery, in fact that recovery could already be happening. However 20% does not always take that long I got a nice easy 20% on Trakm8 recently and that happened within days. But please note I only look to see if I think a share has the potential to reach 20% quite often I take 10% or 15% if I think the share is running out of puff. More importantly perhaps is I never take more than a 10% loss. Just what I do and it might not suit everyone just need to find what your comfortable with. Anyway enough of my waffle good luck all.

[dr_smith] 12/6/2014 10:17

Werty5 - I aaume your 20% is over longer than 1 year.
FTSE350 has few co's lowish risk (so excludinging mining etc) offering >7% p.a. forecast and most of the smaller co's carry the cost of 2% spread on buy/sell (so would have to look to >9%), so few co's out there to pick.
BKG is obviously on that list.
12-18 months ago there were many more offering >7% p.a. forecast, but I think QE has done this, though once QE is unwound, they'll re-appear....IMO :-)

[werty5] 11/6/2014 23:15

R Ball and everyone has a plan and if it works for you then great. My 20% target is by no means always reached in fact more often than not I take profits before hand. But when I look at a share I check out the price history etc... and the mood of the sector to see if the potential of a 20% upside is there. Must admit I got my timing wrong on this share though.

[r ball] 11/6/2014 18:38

wertyI only try for a 10% gain. always run profits and keep 15% trailing stop loss.

[werty5] 11/6/2014 08:07

6% gain does not seem like much I always aim for at least 20% why not start to move your stop loss up to protect your margin? But at the end of the day only you can make your decision and a gain is better than a loss. Although 6% hardly seems worth the risk you have taken. Good luck.

[30003000] 06/6/2014 14:54

Bought a couple of weeks ago and showing 6% gain - so much for e-savings and cash ISA's Do I sell?

[chinese investor] 06/6/2014 13:24

Looking Good !

[doe808] 30/5/2014 12:55

Anybody got any further details on the next dividend payment?

Bonus due in a few weeks time- hoping we remain around this level until then!

[miata] 28/5/2014 08:00

Number 6 The Tower, should provide future cashflow.

[r ball] 20/5/2014 17:05

Indeed. Once the price has stabilised I reckon that it could be due a bounce. I'm waiting in the wings a bit.

[essentialinvestor] 20/5/2014 14:09

BKG and BWY are my sector pics FWIW.

This is not the sector to be in (short term) if you think markets
are about to go in to correction mode.


However with BKG you have Finals in under 4 weeks and if the MCX stays around
these levels, BKG will not be available at anywhere near this price IMV.


You pays your money and takes your choice.

[r ball] 20/5/2014 14:03

Indeed. No chance of a bid. BKG is very much a focused money making machine. They are a concertina company (growing and shrinking in line with the industry cycle). At the moment they are shrinking (land bank not being replaced).

BTW: I have a bit miffed by the dividend policy.

A capital return would be more tax efficient for small shareholders. But then again, as least you know what you are getting into when you buy the shares.