Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[gregsc] 07/3/2019 08:16

Similar to LGEN yesterday, good results and the share price goes down.

[tfergi] 07/3/2019 08:14

So with yesterdays drop we are over 3% down. Pretty unbelievable really, not much logic around now a days.

[rogerbridge] 07/3/2019 08:10

I was looking at rightmove, I do think it will rise, up I was told that the dividend was based on the share price before the share split.

[edmundshaw] 07/3/2019 08:08

...for now...

[tfergi] 07/3/2019 08:06

And so It drops....

[edmundshaw] 07/3/2019 08:05

Right now a share price of £5 and a yield of 6% looks reasonable; but in more normal times 6% yield is on the high side, so I am hoping with good strategic progress we shall see a share price of 600p+ in the medium term. £4.25 and 7% yield is a bit silly, so for me right now this is an overweight hold or buy.

[whatsup32] 07/3/2019 08:05

Legal and general have two buy notes today. I expect Aviva will have some late today or tomorrow

[smurfy2001] 07/3/2019 07:58

Fabulous dividend

[whatsup32] 07/3/2019 07:56

Happy with results . 7% yield in a solid company with excellent growth potential. This is good investing, I’m holding

[wskill] 07/3/2019 07:50

Very pleased that debt is being reduced that is the way an insurance company should be running the business .

Will increase my holdings now.

[oggyrocks] 07/3/2019 07:48

I think it's good. Dividend up 2% more than LGEN.(shs price underperformed LGEN by 10% in last 6 months)

Confident words from the new man. He seems positive which is what I wanted to hear.

Debt repayment slowing relative to last 2 years. Therefore more room for increased dividends going forward.

There was rumours of dividend being cut, so the fact that this wasn't and isn't going to be cut in the future is a massive positive.

I can't see this being anything other than a buy at 4.35. A really strong hold due to dividend yield (I will be holding long term now), and I think they are more confident than LGENs yesterday. (I hold both, but did sell some LGEN recently and bought more Aviva.)

I anticipate trading range for next 6 months of 420-500. This is my estimate.

[zangdook] 07/3/2019 07:40

ok, this is clearer. 'moving to a progressive dividend policy' frees them to increase the dividend by less than EPS. OTOH if EPS falls we still get the dividend maintained. An insurance company thinking like an insurance company.

"In light of our results and the strength of our financial position, we have increased our total dividend per share by 9% to 30.0 pence (2017: 27.4 pence). This is the fifth consecutive year of significant annual growth in the dividend, with the 2018 level representing double the level paid for 2013 (15.0 pence).

Having achieved our 50% dividend payout ratio target relative to operating EPS‡,# in 2017, this year we have increased the dividend payout ratio to 51.4%. Looking forward, the Board of Directors has decided to move from a policy targeting a pay-out ratio tied to operating EPS to a progressive dividend policy. This change will afford the new CEO greater flexibility to implement his strategic agenda while protecting the current dividend per share for our existing shareholders."

[mj19] 07/3/2019 07:39

Aviva announced FY results: "Group adjusted operating profit, increased 2% to £3,116M (2017: £3,068M) while operating EPS rose 7% to 58.4p (2017: 54.8p). IFRS profit after tax was £1,687M (2017: £1,646 M), leading to basic EPS of 38.2p (2017: 35.0p)." Meanwhile, the Co proposed a final dividend of 20.75p per share, bringing FY dividend to 30.0p per share (2017: 27.4p).I am still in at £5....

[rogerbridge] 07/3/2019 07:38

Solid results, nice dividend for the ISA.

[villarich] 07/3/2019 07:26

Yes solid results but I'd say just above expectations given the bump on the dividend. I disagree with the comment about paying off debt being boring. Cash is king and paying off debts means they'll have £900m more of the green stuff which they're clearly earmarking to support the progressive dividend policy. They are opting for steady dividends rather than lumpy special divs.

[zangdook] 07/3/2019 07:23

"We are moving to a progressive dividend policy. Moderating the rate of dividend per share growth will enhance our flexibility to repay debt and invest in business improvement. The future trajectory of the dividend will reflect performance against our strategic objectives."

Cutting through the waffle I'd say they're trying to put a spin on the fact that the rate of dividend increase has slowed, but 9% is more than respectable.

[dr biotech] 07/3/2019 07:22

Consensus forecast vs actual

Operating profit £3.157 billion vs 3.116
Earnings per share (on an adjusted basis) 58 vs 58.4

Best to say results are “in line”. Must admit I don’t fully understand their financials


Future plans to pay down debts, boring but makes sense. Dividend 30p, means the yield is nearly 7% and is in my view sustainable

[waveneygnome] 06/3/2019 20:42

Share buybacks are great.......just look at standard life share price since they started their buybacks.

[imagining] 06/3/2019 18:27

Indecent market action today though! Any surplus cash following tomorrow's results would provide an opportunity for further share buybacks at these artificially low prices. Positive vibes on future growth etc from new CEO would also go down well.

[whatsup32] 06/3/2019 17:33

All on tomorrow. After positive results from L&G and share price going down can only cross my fingers.

Having said that , decent company. Decent dividend , decent sector,

[smurfy2001] 06/3/2019 17:23

Disappointing day but still broken out on my chart.

[whatsup32] 06/3/2019 13:11

Looks like I’m the smartest here having paid 4.78p :)
Comfortable in holding and positive about results tomorrow.


Since Aviva is interest rates sensitive. I have this question to ask. Goverment have said if in the event of no agreement Brexit then U.K. will have no tariff on goods arriving into U.K. (excluding some items like cars)
For U.K. to have a balanced trade ,GBP will have to drop in value to assist U.K. companies to export.
This would imply interest rates will be held low so as not to inflate sterling’s value.

Any thoughts ?

[danielbird193] 06/3/2019 13:11

Thanks oggyrocks - the difference in dividend yield is a good indicator of the disparity in valuations between the two companies.

Also worth remembering that the price to book for LGEN is 2.22 and the comparable figure for AV. is 1.05.

I think they're both great companies, but everything points to Aviva continuing to be undervalued compared to L&G. At some point this valuation anomaly will correct, and I'm happy to hold on while it does so.

[alphorn] 06/3/2019 12:51

I am also quite bullish on Aviva. My positions have a much lower strike price than the share price today and am expecting to bank the full premium.

[oggyrocks] 06/3/2019 12:41

Personally - I think LGEN at 286 were on 6% dividend. This for me is top end for them at the moment. They were recently at 2.20 and 8.5% (approx) which is much more appealing. Anything above 7% dividend for LGEN I would rate as a buy. (I bought at 2.55 9 months ago - picked up a dividend payment and sold at 2.83 so v happy with my return).

When I bought LGEN(9months ago) I also bought Aviva at 4.90. They have therefore underperformed LGEN by 10% in last 9 months.

The new chap in charge has already said that he is looking to increase share price as top priority over next 3-5 years. I would therefore read that he is not going to cut dividend, and should be looking to increase. I think that if we are at 8% dividend yield tomorrow, then we could see 5.00 in near term (giving yield at 5.00 of about 7%).

Being new, he has to be more positive in his words than LGEN were, otherwise he's a very dull appointment.

I have bought more Aviva shares today, and am optimistic of seeing 5.00 soon.

GLA