Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[skinny] 17/10/2018 11:56

Comparing the FTSE 100 now with 1999 is a bit like comparing apples and oranges.

The companies/type/sector etc making up the index have drastically changed.

This is from February 2015, I can't (easily) find a direct comparison between now and then :-

[porsche1945] 17/10/2018 11:41

I have to stop buying anything listed on the ftse, trying to stock pick in a market nobody really wants to buy into, its below wher it was twenty years ago, take out a couple of miners and oil and its in freefall even with a trashed currency. Brexit just destroying any confidence, could go on for years as no deal a disaster and any other deal likely to be damage limitation exercise, probably best to just stick to buying good US tracker funds. This stuff in the ftse, some of it pays decent dividends but whats the point if your capital always being eroded. UK just a self harming basket case.

[tfergi] 17/10/2018 11:02

Getting hit again....

[stewart64] 16/10/2018 20:45

I wonder whether the low share price can survive the annual results on some of these ( ie stay low). Aviva is on for a p/e of 7.5 assuming things hold up in the next few weeks ( and we have not heard anything to the contrary) and a book price of 88% if they don't manage to extend the capital from 2017. It's share valuations but not as we know them Jim.

[yf23_1] 16/10/2018 18:09

All defensive high yields are being hit together with bonds, its just a reversion of strategy as of higher interest rates. Its the short-term growth vs value recently been given a push in possible recovery in productivity and it'll blow over as interest rates will remain low.

[alphorn] 16/10/2018 17:43

I think that the future is indeed bleak as we speak. It could easily become a self fulfilling prophecy. Then it will be difficult to turn around.

[stewart64] 16/10/2018 17:38

As Dr Biotech says they are meeting their revenue targets. Doesn't really stop here, sentiment down on House Builders and other domestic sectors...Taylor Wimpey on a covered 11.5% fwd dividend at p/e in the sevens. Really to justify these valutions the wheels have really got to start falling off the wagon, probably a few months ago.
Can't think of a historical parallel to the present situation of prices marked down because it is assumed we are heading into the abyss off record profits...anybody?

As I have mentioned before without the oily and tech props the FTSE 100 is in recession levels of 2003 and 2009 once you factor inflation.

[essentialinvestor] 16/10/2018 17:18

Would view underwriting as unlikely, they do however compress margins
in any sector they enter.

In any case it's more of an observation re recent sector weakness,
it may not be valid.

[dr biotech] 16/10/2018 17:06

Yeah, if its on the internet it must be true. Not forgetting that article is about a year old and not backed up anywhere else, other than vague reports of another comparison website.

Not saying that they won't sell some tagged on products such as warranty insurance, but Amazon make their money by generally cutting out retailers with higher fixed expenses - don't know many insurers with high street facilities or their own decent websites.

[danielbird193] 16/10/2018 17:04

Interesting article - I can see them setting up a user-friendly "front end" but, like Dr Biotech, would be highly surprised to see them take on underwriting risk.

That said, if they choose to do so then all bets are off!

[essentialinvestor] 16/10/2018 16:26

hxxps://www.globaldata.com/amazon-posed-to-disrupt-uk-insurance/

More than rumors, they are recruiting.

What form that may take is the unknown.

[dr biotech] 16/10/2018 16:23

Why would Amazon want to go into insurance? Thats been spouted about a few times but without any sort of evidence. They may want to set up a comparison website - but google did that where did it get them? There are already multiple sites available and more comparison sites won't make a big difference to the writers. I highly doubt Amazon would want to underwrite, given the capital and regulation required.

[essentialinvestor] 16/10/2018 15:36

DLG should not be impacted by any negative Brexit sentiment.
So these falls may indicate something the market is becoming
more cautious on. Potential threat of Amazon entering the sector..?.

[danielbird193] 16/10/2018 14:54

Pretty awful price action over the past few days, but the worst thing would be to sell out now. For some time now this has been an absolute bargain on a number of measures, and is even more so after the recent falls.

It's a shame Mark Wilson is leaving as I think he's done a sterling job as CEO (pref share debacle notwithstanding). The nomination of a suitable successor would be positive for the share price, as would some reassurance on current year trading.

In the meantime the worst possible course of action would be to sell at the bottom.

[whatsup32] 16/10/2018 14:19

I bought in about 3 weeks ago at £4.78 and it’s been down pretty much everyday since. still no wiser as to why it’s dropping.

Held at 4.30 so maybe we’ve seen bottom

[skinny] 16/10/2018 13:38

We had an update at the end of November last year, otherwise its 7th Match for Full year results.

[dr biotech] 16/10/2018 13:01

True, but AV have said they are on track to meet expectations...

[essentialinvestor] 16/10/2018 12:34

RSA warning hammered sector sentiment.

[mj19] 16/10/2018 12:32

I bought this at £5 so what joy this is. Will I ever see £5 again

[essentialinvestor] 16/10/2018 12:04

Heading under £4?.

[skinny] 16/10/2018 10:47

16 Oct 2018 UBS Buy 430.20 575.00 535.00

[stewart64] 12/10/2018 21:00

Life assurance sector really taking a pounding in this correction ( the one the broker's hate..Legal and General..spared the most). Carnage also at Standard Life. Guess they may buck the trend in the retracement...let's hope.

[tim1478] 12/10/2018 20:21

Looks good value. I think some of the fall might be due to the unexpected resignation of the CEO Mark Wilson, who is very good. Could be difficult to replace.