Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 18/9/2018 16:07

Still more than £1 a share over the post referendum low,
would not expect under £4 outside a hard Brexit, or wider UKX bear market.

[dr biotech] 18/9/2018 15:59

I've added some here today to the SIPP. Assuming the final is 10% more than last year the forward yield is more than 6% - looks sustainable too. May suffer some Brexit wobbles along the way but looks a solid if unspectacular investment.

[danielbird193] 18/9/2018 14:34

Meanwhile Aviva's share price continues to drift and looks like incredible value based on price to book, price to free cash flow and dividend yield. I'm a happy long-term holder.

[fangorn2] 18/9/2018 14:17

Motley only had themselves to blame...their censorial nature became ridiculous.
Pointless posting by the end as you'd more often than not upset some poor little snowflake.

[stemis] 18/9/2018 09:26

It's a shame. It used to be the 'go to site' with excellent discussion boards and interesting small cap articles (I even wrote a few myself). I haven't been there now for a couple of years...

[edmundshaw] 14/9/2018 15:00

Wow. If you are going to use that level of arithmetical skill I don't think you should be writing articles about finance. Quite ludicrous.

[gateside] 13/9/2018 20:00

The 'fool' website does write some real poor articles these days. Often think they are just looking for some eye-catching headline.

[dr biotech] 13/9/2018 19:12

That’s an awful article

“ At the end of 2017, Aviva had a Solvency II cover ratio of 198%, with a capital surplus of £12.2bn....

City analysts believe that smaller peer Just Group, which is also a prevalent issuer of LTMs, could have to raise an additional £400m... The total size of the market is £20bn and growing. Just has around £6.8bn of LTM products
Aviva reportedly has a larger market share of the LTM business than Just, but the business is more diversified. Still, I estimate any change in capital requirements could result in the company having to hold billions in additional funds”

Just seems to have about 1/3 of the market, if AV has the other 2/3rds (it won’t have) then it’s additional funds would be 800m. Already covered by its capital surplus of £12bn. I know that’s too simplistic, but AVs capital surplus is way above Just...

[stewart64] 13/9/2018 14:47

A scare story about lifetime mortgages today relating to Aviva.

[pete160] 27/8/2018 22:39

Yet another story from the fool where the author has no position in the shares.Always amazes (irritates) me how they write piece after piece, week after week and very seldom have they actually put their money where their mouth is.

[grahamite2] 27/8/2018 16:12

Hmm - essentially a puff for something called Halma.

[losos] 13/8/2018 21:12

edmundshaw - "egregious pescatorial analogies" haha made me laugh, keep 'em comming :-)

[a0148009] 13/8/2018 19:26

exd 16.08.2018 9.25p.

[mo123] 13/8/2018 11:59

Someone interested in ESure, AV. also on a lowly forward PE.

[edmundshaw] 13/8/2018 10:59

With interest rates rising, pref shares are likely to get cheaper. Whether that drop will cover the cost of more expensive debt for Aviva (when deciding if and when to buy them at the market price) is a difficult one. I think the board have bigger fish to fry than to worry about that kind of detail right now... small fry and a potential can of worms (please forgive the egregious pescatorial analogies).

[quady] 12/8/2018 09:27

And as has been mentioned it's now an exercise 50% more expensive than the cancelation plan would've been. I dont think theyll be bought up until such point they no longer count as regulatory capital which is a few years off.

[edmundshaw] 11/8/2018 12:46

It's just that the price of prefs is arguably a bit depressed from the fright the board gave the holders (even though rising interest rates make a small fall in the prices reasonable). Buying back before a full recovery would be easy to attack.

[ianood] 11/8/2018 12:01

edmundshaw - I am not aware of anything preventing the Co's broker from being told to sit on the bid and slowly hoover them up for cancellation?

[danielbird193] 11/8/2018 10:50

I think buying back the prefs at market value would be an acceptable thing to do. Expensive, yes, but grubby, no. The only grubby thing was trying to force holders of "irredeemable" securities to wind up their holdings at a substantial discount to the prevailing market price.

I say this as an (ordinary) shareholder and do not, nor ever have, held the prefs.

[edmundshaw] 11/8/2018 10:08

Long term it shouldn't make a difference, but short term I agree Graham.

Perhaps Aviva could buy in the prefs at some point. But obviously it would look too grubby to do that any time soon... :-( ... -_-

[grahamburn] 10/8/2018 20:00

In my experience, buybacks offer private investors far less benefit than increased or special dividends, while buybacks offer institutional investors an easy route to realising some of the investment and give direct benefit to directors' bonuses via increases in EPS.

[quady] 10/8/2018 16:58

To point the obvious, £450m of that capital was to go on cancelling the perfs. Since that's not happening a special could be on the cards..... or just extending the buyback... minus the £15m compensation naturally. £400m would be a 10p/share special which seems plausible but I'd bet on extending the buyback. Happy either way tbh. With moving the payout ratio from 50% to 55-60% over the next couple of years the regular yield gets a superboost by cancelling shares (the AV buyback is cancelling them right?)