Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[pete160] 22/10/2018 22:55

Splitting an investment between av. and vod, I reckon you'd average 7%+ and also have a reasonable 'guarantee' (do they exist in the stock market?)You'd also have 2 fairly diversified businesses both geographically but also generationally (av. better for savings and pensioners, and whilst vod more in tune with youngsters on mobile and data). Happy retirement!

[dr biotech] 22/10/2018 22:47

I reckon the total div for the year will be closer to 30p - yield of over 7%. Recent announcement is trading is inline with forecast etc.

I could retire if I can get a guaranteed 7% on my investments. This is now my largest holding, have to hope the CEO and brexit situations are resolved positively, whatever that may be..

[alphorn] 22/10/2018 22:25

Yield tonight per HL 6.52%.

Writing a 420p put gives 8-9% pa. yield.

May be the budget is going to hit the insurance industry???

[alphorn] 22/10/2018 15:16

Very tempted at this level but will wait a day or so until the TM situation is clearer.

[marksp2011] 21/10/2018 10:23

LGEN and PRU are being hit too
In fact all the financials and all the fund managers

It is counterintuitive as rising rates will help the banks and insurers

market falls hurt the fundmanagers as the AUM on which they charge will fall.

There are a number of irrational falls at the moment

[danielbird193] 19/10/2018 18:49

Very useful intel, thanks. Always frustrating when a top 10 holding plummets like this but I think the underlying business is sound, I'll be holding on and may consider topping up.

[essentialinvestor] 19/10/2018 17:30

CC, thanks for the information.

[cc2014] 19/10/2018 16:56

Multiple sellers on L2. Seemingly a fairly aggressive sell program and another party who kept taking out swathes of the bid to sell their shares.

I am struggling to understand why the selling is so aggressive. I can see it on Lloyds too but the market is absorbing a large proportion of it there. I can't see it on RBS.

I am beginning to wonder if there is a large player in trouble this week. The selling on INTU has been quite bizarre too. Like someone wants to sell at almost any price which is odd with a bid proposal around. They would get a much better price by being a little patient.

We will probably never know what's going on. If the seller stops on Monday it should bounce fast to at least something higher than where we are.

[tfergi] 19/10/2018 16:47

Not a million miles away from a 5 year low !?!? WTF

[whatsup32] 19/10/2018 15:45

Boy are we getting shafted. 478 to 418 in a month. Down 15% or .60p in old money.
Sod it

[cc2014] 19/10/2018 12:50

Christmas in two months time. Surely it won't be down here by then?

[essentialinvestor] 19/10/2018 12:44

Skinny, are you seeing under £4, or too in learning to say? Thanks.

[essentialinvestor] 18/10/2018 13:41

Decided to wait until the next update to buy, probably a mistake!.

[stewart64] 18/10/2018 11:49

Another "Foolish" article...positive this time.



Tend to agree with the Fool re. a 7.5 p/e with a fat dividend covered twice as slightly odd.

You will always get some bod justifying these low values. Remember a time when the Market misaligned bond prices and war stock was trading at 28p or a 12% yield. Plenty of doomsters justifying that. In the end it more than tripled plus the 3.5% yield and was redeemed by the Government at a quid par.

[essentialinvestor] 18/10/2018 10:56

If Brexit is going to be so marvelous, it's amazing how
almost any UK domestic focused stock that may be affected by the process has been hammered.

Lloyds from 89 pence to near 56.

If anyone thinks the market has it wrong, there are bargains glaore about.

[fangorn2] 18/10/2018 10:48

That'd be your perception.

Plenty of people find my posts useful and have said so..

That you don't matter little to me geezwoir.

[edmondj] 17/10/2018 21:43

Sorry to reiterate Brexit but so it appeared on Tuesday's FT Alphaville when discussing insurers. Were UBS simply rude to overlook Aviva in their buys, or there might be a reason?
(BE is Bryce Elder, by the way.)

BE
UBS on insurance. Sure. That'll fill some time.

BE
It's negative on UK life because of bloody Brexit.

BE
The Brexit timetable is closing in with key dates approaching The UBS house view is that a deal will be reached, but even in this instance UK parliamentary support remains uncertain and risks remain. In this report, we assess the potential implications to UK insurers. We highlight balance sheet and operational exposures across life and P&C, with valuations implying the risk of an adverse scenario is not fully priced in. Our interactive model illustrates sensitivities to key risks, namely credit ratings, property exposures and claims inflation which are under-appreciated, in our view. We turn more negative on the UK Life sub-sector owing to balance sheet risks, downgrading from our second most preferred to fifth.
11:37 am
BE
Life insurers are balance sheet businesses with leveraged business models. We illustrate that an adverse Brexit scenario resulting in a UK credit cycle would impact on Solvency II ratios via higher capital requirements. This would lower solvency by ~6-38ppts, in some cases leading to ratios falling below the self-imposed floor levels indicated by management (L&G). Further, the impact at entity level is proportionately higher and could leave buffers thin, impacting cash remittances if impacts proved prolonged. More illiquid markets, where insurers have been increasing allocations (0.4-1.9x TNAV), could see large negative valuation swings. The implication of this for dividends in an adverse Brexit scenario is under-appreciated and not priced in, in our view
BE
For UK P&C insurers, we find few jurisdictional issues from Brexit, with companies able to write EU business via EU subs; costs and capital fungibility would see marginal impacts only. The main dynamic, in our opinion, would be any potential impact on claims inflation via GBP weakness (imported parts inflation), potential tariffs or labour shortages. For UK motor, companies have a good track record of passing on higher claims costs and, given the sub-sector trades with pricing, higher claims inflation may not be a bad thing. Balance sheet risks appear lower than for UK life, but we note DLG and RSA have UK infrastructure and property exposures. Saga looks more insulated with a low risk balance sheet.
BE
So, they like : Allianz, Prudential, Saga, Swiss Life, NN Group, Tryg and Baloise.

[pete160] 17/10/2018 21:33

I just posted my thoughts /concerns over on the lgen boad but the questions regarding insurance exposure/ pension tax cuts and Italian bank debt exposure might equally apply to aviva.

I've been in and out of av a couple of times over the past 5 years or so and was on the point of pressing buy again when they first fell to 520 and then 500 in the past few months. Have had a lucky escape thus far (although I bought vod instead, so not sure that was the smartest alternative!).

My other concern with Av is that (another) boss has just left and quite suddenly (like the last one did). Commentators seem to put this down to the redeemable irredeemable issue but my concern is either that there is something else causing the weakness or that the new boss (when they find one) will kitchen sink the accounts to clear the decks.

I'll ask a question here, is av a better buy than lgen at present, and why so?