Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[cyberian] 25/1/2023 09:43

eurofox....HAPPY? I added like you on the recent fall and looking for further progress.

[tuftymatt] 25/1/2023 09:37

Yeah great news today from AV. and as a holder of DLG too I hope they are sitting up and taking notes!!

I think DLG has a strong brand and there is still a place for it but they have to get their house in order PDQ

[engelbert1969] 25/1/2023 09:23

Superb from Av. Just what I've been waiting for

[cjac39] 25/1/2023 09:22

And with life to come which should be better. Looking forward to personal lines preso as not seen one of those

[yump] 25/1/2023 08:32

Bit embarrassing for DLG, although more exposed in various ways - apart from the winter !

[mj19] 25/1/2023 08:17

Aviva, an insurance group, said it expects full-year group combined operation ratio of 94.6%, consistent with the guidance it gave at its 3Q trading update in November, while weather experience for the full-year has been broadly in-line with its long-term averages.

[salver2] 25/1/2023 08:10

Clearly unaffected unlike Direct Line -this statement excellent from Aviva will pile pressure on DLG management

[mister md] 25/1/2023 07:55

Yes that only affected DLG ;-)

[cfro] 25/1/2023 07:34

Largely unaffected by December's icy weather then.

[skinny] 25/1/2023 07:06

Aviva plc UK Personal Lines briefing and 2022 General Insurance update

Aviva plc ("Aviva" or the "Group") is today hosting an 'In Focus' investor and analyst briefing on its UK General Insurance ("GI") Personal Lines business. The event, which commences at 10:00am (GMT), will be hosted by Charlotte Jones, Group CFO, and presented by Adam Winslow, CEO UK & Ireland GI, and Owen Morris, MD UK GI Personal Lines.

Today's presentation will focus on Aviva's leading UK GI Personal Lines business, which has strong and profitable growth opportunities in attractive market segments, particularly Retail and High Net Worth. Our customer-centric business is diversified across both products and distribution with deliberate, targeted brand segmentation. With its strong performance track record, it makes a key contribution to Aviva Group, providing cash generation, operating profit, access to customers, and capital diversification. This is underpinned by excellent technical foundations, including in data science and machine learning.

Full year 2022 General Insurance update

Aviva's GI businesses in the UK, Ireland and Canada continued to trade positively over the closing months of 2022, demonstrating the clear benefits of our diversification across GI products and geographies.

For full year 2022 we estimate a Group combined operating ratio of c.94.6%(1) , consistent with the guidance we gave at our Q3 trading update in November. The Group's dividend guidance and outlook for capital returns remain unchanged.

We continue to price appropriately for the high inflation environment, in particular in UK Personal Lines, responding at pace to emerging data and trends.

At a Group level, weather experience for the full year 2022 has been broadly in-line(1) with our long-term averages ('LTA'), and marginally above(1) LTA in the fourth quarter. Over the course of 2022, weather experience in the UK & Ireland was only marginally above LTA (+0.4pp(1) ), whilst it was below LTA in Canada (-0.9pp(1) , with no fourth quarter weather events). In the UK we have been focused on supporting our customers during and after December's freezing weather, for which we estimate a cost of c.GBP50m.

UK Personal Lines presentation arrangements

Today's presentation and analyst Q&A will be live-streamed on www.aviva.com , and a recording will be made available on the website shortly after the event. Analysts are invited to attend in person. Presentation slides will be released on Aviva's website shortly before the event.

-ends-

[cjac39] 20/1/2023 11:22

hi 1rob - yes definitely. the way the capital works for s2 and indeed before that in s1 is you add up all your risks individually be they credit risk, interest rate risk, lapse risk, or other insurance risks and then you make up a covariance matrix which frankly is a dark art not really based on anything real to diversify between them.

this stands for any risk whether it be life, gi, operational or otherwise and creates offsets between risks of probably like 30-40% in the case of GI vs Life i would estimate.

so massive risk offset for aviva for sure. but also, btw, i would think commercially it is beneficial to them as well as they really struggle to make decent ROEs with the drag from the heritage business which runs at 6-8%. the only chance they have of getting to their target 12% is from building up other business lines or if they were better at capital allocating from building out a decent SH proprietary investment business like the US guys do or LGen. however with their track record in m&a i guess thats not something we should hope for!

[1robbob] 20/1/2023 10:40

A question for cjac

In the past you have suggested that there were merits in retaining GI as it softened the impact of Solvency 2
Does this still apply after the proposed S2 reform (if implemented!!)?

[whatsup32] 20/1/2023 08:46

Not sure she needs it.

[cjac39] 17/1/2023 06:37

its so poor reading how these pra idiots make headlines about increased risk and failure citing equitable. theres so much wrong with what they say not least that equitable came from a time when insurers didnt mark their bs to market nor value the guarantees properly.

so much has changed since then and the pra has driven enormous increases in capital despite risk management getting better. Solvency1 and the ICAs regime was fit for purpose. solvency2 nigh on doubled life insurance capital at the direct expenses to the consumer. moreover the ridiculously bureaucratic internal model regime costs insurers tens of millions.

if you add up the costs to consumers and wasted expense it will likely dwarf any potential cost of failure of a life company

zero fault regulation is to blame not a weakening of the rules. kudos to the govt standing up to them

[whatsup32] 16/1/2023 18:49

‘Bank of England says shake up of insurers rules increase risk’

[whatsup32] 16/1/2023 18:43

‘Insurers braced for battle with U.K. regulators over city reform’

[buzz24] 16/1/2023 16:22

Apologies...you know the company I mean..;)

[1robbob] 16/1/2023 14:34

buzz24
Whats all that about RSA!!!

Interesting that L&G is performing as badly as AV
...with no GI

[buzz24] 16/1/2023 14:01

Didn't RSA say in their 3rd quarter results, the divided was not affected? ie people could have bought or held the shares based on that statement. Isn't that a case of miselling?

Also to take into account is that people are poorer now and will cut back on non essentials and insurance could well be one of them?

There is no reason why based on Aviva's fall in the share price pn that day of RSA results, Aviva could have said they have no intention of cutting any dividends which are in fact based on a wholly misplaced cancelling of the share issue and may continue with that policy too?

[eurofox] 16/1/2023 13:53

Also, Health insurance is probably increasing rapidly as the NHS fails the nation

[cjac39] 16/1/2023 13:08

ive been trying to work out whether its a problem or not and its hard to say. looking at the RSA results makes it look quite scary as they took a 63mln hit and from what i can tell their UK personal lines business is only about £500mln NWP but that is based on historic reporting so might be out.

avivas business is many times bigger than this overall but i cant find anything telling me how this splits out into diff personal lines and therefore what the scale of the issue could be.

however, overall, the UK GI biz is only 10% of overall profits so could go to zero temporarily and wouldnt make any difference to the longer term valuation of aviva.

one off hits like those seen in motor dont really change the overall picture as insurers annually reprice anyway to make back any short term losses so i think the market has it right.

also, i would imagine H2 has been a bonanza for aviva in sourcing credit assets at nice wide spreads for the BPA book and their Q3 results were strong anyway