Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[spud] 14/1/2023 12:40

Pop. I'll monitor. I'm not up for banning anyone unless it's in the best interests of the board. spud

[topbun] 14/1/2023 11:52

I see the idiot and his many handles has moved on from LGEN now.

[yump] 14/1/2023 11:31

If you’re a chart believer then 440 is support and so is 400 ish.

Not difficult to pick one its a binary choice and totally depends on whether people and/or algorithms make the levels self-fulfilling. Enough snake oil has been massaged into trading over the years to make it work except when the unexpected happens

[p0pper] 14/1/2023 11:21

Morning Spud, as you know this Trev bloke has absolutely destroyed the other board, along with one of the LGEN boards, please keep him off this one.

[salver2] 13/1/2023 21:40

What a lot of nonsense - nobody can tell anything- especially someone with a handle calledTrev

[1robbob] 13/1/2023 19:13

smurfy2001
MA50 ?

[smurfy2001] 13/1/2023 18:41

MA50 supporting price for now.

[marksp2011] 13/1/2023 12:27

Whatsup23

DLG issues are two sided.

there are claims and there is premium and reinsurance - the art is the balance between them. RI costs money and comes off the bottom line.
Any fool can write business and generate big GWP numbers, whether that makes any money is about risk management. My view is that DLG risk management failed.

They didn't reinsure enough?
they wrote business they shouldn't have?
They premiums were too low?

Some combination of those.... inflation was easily seen as was the used car prices

the size of the miss isn't small.

[skinny] 13/1/2023 12:24

Cjac39 & marksp2011, thanks for the informative posts.

[kasamavic] 13/1/2023 12:16

My building and contents in December with AV was £450.Shelia's wheels did higher cover for £150.

[spud] 13/1/2023 11:40

I now pay £117 following my renewal in December (£53 less than my renewal quote and £16 less than my previous years). I've a substantial property and it offers great cover.

Interestingly, its 25% of my motor insurance (Tesla).

spud

[whatsup32] 13/1/2023 11:06

If Direct Line are having issues it could be that it’s not isolated and may effect the sector as a whole.
Their quoted areas of concern freezing weather for home insurance, water can cause massive damage.
Freezing weather on the roads , more accidents.
Car repairs more expensive, inflation issues and value of older cars rising
Hot weather issues with subsidence . As an example I’m paying around £300 for home insurance contents included . Ridiculously low given potential of huge claims , same for car insurance. I’ve never made a claim. But do shop around now .

Another area of concern , as people get poorer higher chance they make claim fraudulent or genuine.

Not trying to pour cold water on Av.

[cjac39] 13/1/2023 08:46

very fair and hard to disagree with MSP. the perils of investing in complicated things where headlines dont correlate with results.

personally i try to keep to larger cos when it comes to insurance. its all well and good to think youve done well investing in sabre , just retirement or even DLG but if you are in a somewhat monoline product set you are of course way more exposed to what you describe.

as a case in point AV basically sailed through covid and teh attendant losses without too much trouble (i know they cancelled the divi which was board failing not biz model) owing to its larger diversified business despite taking huge hits on biz interruption, travel and lets not forget canadian dentists.

i do think you can somewhat lower these risks as well by avoiding overconcentration and more retail focussed businesses chasing mkt share. plus the prior year adj and loss triangles do guide you to issues.

on that note, i was incredibly surprised when i was looking recently at Avivas GI business to see they actually make more money in canada than they do in teh whole of UK & Ireland - quite a surprise and i guess a reason why they have kept hold of that business.

[masurenguy] 13/1/2023 00:25

Aviva's healthy cash position highlighted by Berenberg
Consistently high cash returns; exceptionally strong reinsurance pricing and very strong balance sheets are behind the broker's bullishness

Aviva is still in favour with Berenberg even after the curve ball thrown at the sector by motor and general insurer Direct Line’s profit warning this week. The broker notes that Aviva’s insolvency was 2025 in the third quarter and well above a target of 180%, with the result that share buybacks to be “regular and sustainable” over the coming years.

In the life and pension business, the group still sees strong trends in workplace and protection sales while the general insurance posted a 94.3% combined ratio and profitability has remained in line with this level of performance in the current quarter - a number below 100% equals an underwriting profit. One negative is IFRS 17 will lead to a drop in reported earnings, primarily due to a change in profit recognition of the group’s BPA business.

Overall, the broker is upbeat on the sector citing three reasons: Consistently high cash returns; exceptionally strong reinsurance pricing and very strong balance sheets. Against that are the risks of claims cost inflation; slowing property values and the new IFRS 17 regulations.

Even so, the broker has buy recommendations on every company it follows including Aviva, with a target of 540p, and Admiral (target 2,688p).

[cjac39] 12/1/2023 20:52

marksp i was interested in your comment that gi insurers destroy value. that would run counter to most inv themes of late and certainly s2 whereby its almost impossible to earn >12% in life va non life.

US non life and even european non life generally speaking provide better consistent bv growth so long as you avoid blow ups,ie diversify, but not too much and not retail.

capital requirements in life i had thought were too onerous to compete but interested if you think differently?

[yump] 12/1/2023 18:45

Related share info is very useful, especially relative performance after sector news.

Not too difficult to figure out if its a ramp or not.

[buzz24] 12/1/2023 18:29

I need to learn how to spell LOL...