Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[spcecks] 30/9/2022 11:12

That’s confidence.

[waterloo01] 30/9/2022 11:05

And another. Nice bit of confidence from the top folk.

[spud] 30/9/2022 11:03

Aviva announces that Amanda Blanc, Group Chief Executive Officer and PDMR, purchased 25,704 ordinary shares, at a price of GBP3.893946 on 30 September 2022.

Aviva announces that Douglas Brown, CEO of UK & Ireland Life and PDMR, purchased 115,723 ordinary shares, at a price of GBP3.88857 on 30 September 2022.

spud

[coxsmn] 30/9/2022 11:00

CEO just bought 100k's worth

[cjac39] 30/9/2022 10:30

no probs tourist - what happened this week was truly remarkable and completely surprised me but as the dust settles its so clear what happened. bit like 08 it was the pesky VAR models at fault and simple structural flaws like bank counterparties not accepting gilts as collateral under swaps with pension funds.

what i find funny (i can laugh even though im down a ton this week) is that people think the market has some sort of persona. eg "the market is saying it doesnt like the truss plans and the market is saying that interest rates need to rise to 6%"

whilst technically correct, fwd rates did imply 6% base rates, it was not a functioning normal market. p funds were dumping gilts to raise cash which spiralled so it wasnt a liquid 2 way market ascribing price discovery. it was a completely distorted liquidity driven market.

time and again people think market levels are some sort of real thing when in this case it was totally artificial.

but i agree with above comment. everyone feels the effects somewhere when rates move up 300bps in 2 days but systemically insurers are the most liquid players out there and overall rates up is a good thing.

[cfro] 30/9/2022 09:38

Volatility in the LDI market caused this, the BoE has actually helped rectify it.

If you believe governments are going to fall then buy Gold otherwise buy Av. I am sure the latter will be a far better bet!

[bothdavis] 29/9/2022 20:39

I agree......Putins main aim now appears to have been achieved....loss of faith in Governments, stock markets dropping, ...............

[dope007] 29/9/2022 19:13

Truss? BOE, FED, ECB, Putin, caused this. Not Truss

[waterloo01] 29/9/2022 18:16

Second that. I sold out of Lgen 1st thing today but my Av. shares will remain in tact. The amount of exposure and the level of cash they have, really should protect them, and they should do well in a high interest environment (hopefully).

Truss is turning out to be serious liability.

[tourist2020] 29/9/2022 17:21

cjac many thanks for your extremely informative posts during the past couple of days. This thread is my go-to resource for understanding WTF is going on ....

And for all, just thought I would post this link which I found useful.

[spcecks] 29/9/2022 15:19

I think the dividend will be safe here what do others think.

[spud] 29/9/2022 15:17

topvest - That is exactly what I do. I treat my portfolio as an annuity and concentrate on maximising the resultant yield. I think some are too fixated on their day to day portfolio valuations.

However, I do try to buy as low as possible in my chosen stocks so as to maximise the bang for subsequent buck.

spud

[topvest] 29/9/2022 15:06

I've picked up a few today in my ISA at just below 375p; good income stock long term. Assets are being sold globally today. Its starting to look fairly bleak so probably about time to start investing a bit of cash, although the US is still holding up. Isn't it painful though at the moment being an investor. For what its worth, I try to look at my dividend projection rather than portfolio values in these markets!

[mo123] 29/9/2022 15:05

For Aviva and M&G, the UBS team said both have "low" US dollar shareholder asset exposure, "some" interest rate hedging and "no LDI".

[eurofox] 29/9/2022 14:37

Assets across the board being sold - even RIO and BHP finding it difficult to avoid the liquidation - and suppose the LDI problem exposed by BoE action is actually a problem across the world that is only just emerging - it might explain how in spite of all the headwinds over the last 15 years, equities have defied gravity.

[1robbob] 29/9/2022 12:23

Whilst I am having a blast......sorry

LDI's in effect are the direct result of Regulator, BoE, HMG and Accountants'
insistance that Pension Fund liabilities being included on Companies Balance Sheets.

Hence the interest by Companies in minimising the negative impact of the variations in Pension Fund Liability valuations on their balance sheets and P&L Accounts

In the 'Good Old Days' Pension Funds were completely seperate from the Company.
Companies in effect had no liability to fund any Pension Fund shortfall

[1robbob] 29/9/2022 12:16

Dope007
I never said that the BoE could/would go bankrupt, I said 'restructuring'
....In fact only individuals go bankrupt
BoE don't have a license to print money, the Treasury (aka HMG)only have that power

DEEKER
QE started way before Covid back in 2008 to smooth out another 'Crisis'
Thereafter the politicians, with BoE conivance, could not resist the opportunity
to artificially reduce interest rates both long and short term (and screw savers!)

Shame they didn't raise shedloads of long term cash at the artificially low rates of close to zero?
...perhaps the BoE was the only buyer, even then

[deeker] 29/9/2022 11:38

Totally agree. Although steps had to be taken to try and control spread of covid, shutting down global industry/supply was always going to create a financial mess for years to come

[dope007] 29/9/2022 11:29

BOE like the FED can't go bankrupt since they have the license to print money. CB's control the economy and not the government. Hence we have an illusion of democracy

[1robbob] 29/9/2022 10:30

A tongue in cheek thought !!!
.....Don't laugh it could happen

The BoE is long of circa £900bn of Gilts and Long Bonds, as a result of the outrageously long use of QE
These are financed by loans from the Treasury, interest payable at LIBOR!!
....so they lent long and borrowed short...idiots

As a result, the BoE is facing a substantial capital loss and an ongoing
annual loss, as LIBOR interest payable will vastly exceed the income received on Bond holdings

Incidentally the Treasury financed the Loan by printing the money!!!!
.....So the last decade, and lots more, of annual budget defecits has not been financed by debt - it has been financed by printing money

I know this is an outrageous suggestion
But as the BoE finances are likely to need a significant restructuring, at the same time they might as well cancel the Gilts held by the BoE.
This would reduce Government Gilt Debt from £2.2tr to £1.3tr a 41% reduction
......politically tempting

PS: I totally agree with those who have suggested that the currency fall started with the failure of the BoE to at least match the Fed's rate rise.

[cfro] 29/9/2022 10:01

Absolutely correct that we are now learning what the true effects are of shutting the world down in covid.

It is not demand related but supply related and the war in Ukraine is obviously making things worse. Once supply chains get back to some sort of normal then inflation will quickly fall right back and then interest rates can settle.

[geckotheglorious] 29/9/2022 09:18

Skinny,

Spot on.
:)

[gilesy911] 29/9/2022 08:52

Love it ??

[dope007] 29/9/2022 08:36

@Gecko. Very true on the supply chains