Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[1robbob] 04/10/2022 10:22

cfro
>> 'Thats why the directors have been buying heavily'..
The other reason the Directors bought last week, was that it was their last opportunity to buy before entering the 'close period'
Nonetheless, ogres well for a positive Q3 statement on 9th November

[cfro] 04/10/2022 07:50

L&G's update was a wee bit more than just good, it was brilliant.

I suspect AV. also in L&G's position with no balance sheet exposure. Thats why the directors have been buying heavily..

[uppompeii] 04/10/2022 07:34

Good update from L&G today.

[mountpleasant] 04/10/2022 07:07

Bitter sweet

[123trev] 04/10/2022 06:36

What’s the view on the lemonade strategic partnership?

[1robbob] 03/10/2022 12:43

I don't think I have ever seen such significant share
purchases by Directors of a major FTSE100

[spcecks] 03/10/2022 11:51

Don’t blame them have been adding more on the dips myself.

[coxsmn] 03/10/2022 11:47

Directors have their Dysons out hoovering up shares

[cfro] 03/10/2022 10:46

More director buying. This really has the directors confidence now.

[uppompeii] 03/10/2022 10:03

I'd like the 15% fall back now please.

[ianood] 02/10/2022 23:19

Yes and he seemed ever so slightly anti the UK!

[engelbert1969] 02/10/2022 20:13

Not necessarily my view gco. It's the view of Lawrence Summers ex US Treasury Secretary as he describes in the video

[gco1133a] 02/10/2022 19:35

Well I think you are totally wrong Engelbert. Firstly B of E has actually bought very little in way of Gilts so far, the announcement was enough to calm the market. Secondly no way do they want a disorderly market to return and so they will work with Pension funds to smooth exit from this situation and if that more than two weeks so be it.
Overall the rise in gilt yields is good for pension funds, the issue was the unprecedented rise in yields in one day.

[engelbert1969] 02/10/2022 18:54

Interesting video Smurfy, thank you. My sum up ... Bank of England can't be market maker of last resort for ever. Macro economic issues need to be fixed in this 2 week breathing space.

[smidge21] 02/10/2022 16:55

The Consultants loved LDI and aren't able to call time on their usefulness

[eurofox] 02/10/2022 16:03

The clear blame is with Pension Trustees who weren't up to the job - anyone taking on increased leverage buying gilts on margin with interest rate swaps must want their heads testing given it was always obvious that gilt prices would decline quite quickly as the QE was unwound and a liquidity crisis could quite easily establish itself. Next are the advisors that induced this behavior.

Finally there are the bankers who sold these swaps (did no-one learn from the 2008 crisis when many small businesses were sold swaps to protect them against interest rate rises when it was patently clear interest rates were going to go down, and were then adversely affected by swaps blowing up?).

It is the regulators that have been asleep at the wheel - that is where the incompetence arises.

It was also obvious that hedge funds would amplify the effect, as they successfully managed to do last Monday and Tuesday.

[topvest] 02/10/2022 15:49

Thanks - yes all very concerning. For me Truss is to blame. Incompetence and inexperience. Sunak was the wise one!

[smurfy2001] 01/10/2022 16:23

Global Market Risk

[engelbert1969] 01/10/2022 15:25

This includes an explanation of LDI which helped me ...

[cfro] 01/10/2022 12:57

It's now likely that we may start to see inflation fall over the next few weeks. So a future base rate at 6% is most unlikely.

The UK gilt market is already ahead of the curve and i suspect that gilt prices will most likely start to rise again and yields fall as evidence of falling inflation comes through.

The inflation in the system has been caused by the covid shut-down and the war in Ukraine along with a rapid increase in money supply (ie. not demand driven). Once that washes through the system and supply chains slowly get back to normal then inflation will also fall back.

[buzz24] 01/10/2022 11:21

I must add that buying gilts at around 5% seems a good idea with a guarantee payment from HMG if you could buy them around par and better than getting 2 or 3 percent in a bank say? I take it the insurance companies could gain or lose by selling their stocks of gilts and I'm new at this but has the BoE just confirmed they are supporting the gilt market? IE guaranteeing the payouts?

[coxsmn] 01/10/2022 11:06

6% is more like the long term average

[buzz24] 01/10/2022 11:05

Didn't know about gilts but seems most stockbrokers buy and sell them and the graph shows a huge decline in prices this week but none under par at the moment. 6% is available and payable twice a year is it? but the prices are over par. But that sort of HMG guarantee seems very good unless for the very first time in history they fail to pay? As you said timescales are very important as to the extent of the gilts.

[buzz24] 01/10/2022 10:37

[...]

ie the interest rates in the eighties was a lot higher and lasted for quite some time too..Its only recently we have seen the very low rates and whether that will become the norm we don't know but 6% is certainly possible and even higher...