Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[smurfy2001] 28/9/2022 11:09

Capitulation? Nah it hasn't even started.

Fact is September is the weakest month for equities.

[mo123] 28/9/2022 11:02

Will the mkt now force the BOE to put up int rates by around 1%?

[anthony100] 28/9/2022 10:59

Thanks CJAC and Skinny. I now see why these LDI pools are in trouble. Why though the read accross to this sector? Presumably declining surpluses and fear?? Phoenix claimed to hedge cash flows but is also under the cosh.

[cfro] 28/9/2022 10:57

Looks like divi's being re-invested here today.

Smells like capitulation in the markets and this could be a bottom now in.

[cjac39] 28/9/2022 10:47

i doubt they had time to have a committee. swaps margin calls at often T+2 so defaults would have happened pretty quick

[skinny] 28/9/2022 10:44

An interesting comment :-

"But it was not a decision made by the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, who were informed of the decision after it was made by the Bank’s financial experts.

It comes at exactly the same time as that committee had been committed to doing the exact reverse policy - selling government debts."

[cjac39] 28/9/2022 10:43

BOE restarting asset purchases at long end gilts. they said all along it wasn't inflationary and they think yields are too high. careful fighting a central bank in its own currency....

anthony100 big diff insurers vs p funds. insurers hedge mainly with assets not swaps and are super liquid. p funds under LDI use extensive swaps to gain int rate exposure as it leaves them with lots of cash to invest in predominantly illiquid infra equity, private equity and private credit alongside some other liquid stuff.

therefore as real yields rise they will have MASSIVE margin calls on the swaps which is truly systemic. we are talking 100s of billions which would blow up many p funds.

therefore BOE has no option but to step in and bring down long end yields.

amazing scenes that I haven't seen since 08

[skinny] 28/9/2022 10:40

12 month low is 361.20p (so far).

[spud] 28/9/2022 10:38

Order in at mid 370s. Just missed out this morning but I'm pretty confident that I'll get it at some point.

spud

[anthony100] 28/9/2022 10:34

I'm baffled. If insurance companies, LDI funds are hedged then falling gilt capital values should be neutral in effect. Is it just because one can pick up YTM gilts at 4.8 per cent versus the dividend yield on these insurance stocks that leads to these sector falls?

[wadders5] 28/9/2022 10:18

Got mine now as well

[skinny] 28/9/2022 10:17

I'm only looking to reinvest the return of capital here - good luck to those buying at these levels, I'll think I'll wait for now.



:-)

[stoopid] 28/9/2022 10:05

Got in at 389? Good entry point or catching a falling knife as mentioned below??

[eurofox] 28/9/2022 09:57

muscletrade - yes, keeping tabs, and it is going to be interesting when YTM is bigger than blue-chip dividend rates

[watfordhornet] 28/9/2022 09:54

Yes - received mine into HLFor once pleased they do not reinvest until 11th of each month

[engelbert1969] 28/9/2022 09:52

Just as long as most of this fall is irrational Skinny. Back in at 386 but just with the divi.

[skinny] 28/9/2022 09:28

If you want a salutary lesson in catching falling knives - just go back on this thread ( and many others) 3 or 4 days (40 odd posts) - I've been there before, and was tempted here yesterday - AV down another 30 points (7.2%) as I type.

Prices can always go lower in an irrational market - and there are some very irrational falls AGAIN today.

[muscletrade] 28/9/2022 09:21

@eurofox. presumably you are monitoring TR28?
Im seeing running yield of 5.616%

[uppompeii] 28/9/2022 09:13

She should have waited...

[wadders5] 28/9/2022 09:08

Any HL users received their dividend yet?

[mo123] 28/9/2022 08:21

If I remember right Amanda was buying around 380?

[eurofox] 28/9/2022 08:15

70 per cent cash here, but too early to jump in yet . 6 year gilts about to hit 5 per cent YTM.

[uppompeii] 28/9/2022 07:44

No idea. More by luck than planning I'm about 35% cash, though thinking I'll need that to help the kids with their mortgages when theit fixed terms run out, help the kids with their fuel bills, and cover myself for all the increased costs everyone is suffering.And hopefully divi's won't be affected.

[cyberian] 28/9/2022 07:33

PM has to get rid of Kwasi to try and save herself...her Party Conference will be a disaster next week. I always said that the stupid Party members who voted her in over Richi were crazy self indulgent idiots and what a price we are all going to pay. Whatever, the key issue is what can they do to reverse sentiment/confidence...they can hardly call an election as the Tories would be slaughtered. I have nothing constructive to say so better close down.