Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[spud] 28/9/2022 07:23

Looks like Kwasi has broken the train set. Scary times ahead I guess. For those with spare cash, it's a no brainer, but at what price do you keep pulling the trigger?I'm wondering if the new incumbents at #10 really know what the hell they're doing.spud

[eurofox] 27/9/2022 16:12

More fun tomorrow then - foreign capital exiting before further losses for the £ - gilts have now resumed downward path with 6-year YTM now at 4.68%.

[wadders5] 27/9/2022 13:25

Dividend pay day tomorrow.

[scobak] 27/9/2022 08:23

clear as mud then.

[eurofox] 26/9/2022 17:04

My bad, typo on the T28 which should have read TR28. The main types of gilts are those with straight forward nominal terms and those that are index-linked. There are also issues of Green Gilts. All of these are described on the Debt Management Office (DMO) government web site.

[nerja] 26/9/2022 16:54

Euro fox can you help don’t know much about gilts but what does the T , TN, TG, Tr mean in for them? Tia

[eurofox] 26/9/2022 16:45

Not too worry to much about B0E pushing interest rates, the gilt market is doing the job for him - 2-year T24 showing YTM of 4.4% already, and 6-year T28 showing YTM of 4.49% - if TR28 goes to par then I'm in, but have to admit I may be tempted earlier if any of them show YTM > 5%

[smurfy2001] 26/9/2022 16:34

Sure we can beat him up about it but Bailey isn't the only voter at the end of the day.

[1robbob] 26/9/2022 16:27

Andrew Bailey left a lot to be desired at the FCA
Unfortunately he is now being found out at the BoE
Provarication and inaction as ever

Undercooked the rate rise last week
Then leads the Market today to believe there to be an immediate further rise
only to give a meaningless statement 'won't hesitate etc....'!!!!.
Understandable not wanting to appear to be panicing.....but to do a 'Grand old Duke of York' is much much worse

The Fed has stolen a march on other Cental Banks in decisively raising interest rates.
However, most other Central Banks have cottoned on and follwed the Fed...except for the BoE

Monday's announcements by the Chancellor has not helped sterling but the biggest culpret is the BoE for undercooking interest rate rises

[cjac39] 25/9/2022 17:46

thanks buzz. i think ill stick with my own choice of words. i didnt double down i quadrupled down. bonds vs eq is interesting and depends, for me on personal circumstances. i like buying bonds at 70-80% as the inevitable cap gain is tax free (qcbs) and id never buy a bond over par for same reason. however ive compounded 25% yoy for 5 years inc this year punting on ins equities which you woukdnt get in bonds so horses for courses

[buzz24] 25/9/2022 12:54

cjak39, I think you mean quadruple UP and not down as the latter would suggest selling rather than buying the shares and hence the problem of a forum which can lead people into different directions.

If you can get 5 percent or above in fixed rate bonds why risk money on buying shares to get the same value and risk the shares tanking as they tend to do? Yep getting some capital gain is excellent but we must recall that Aviva went down to around 225p not that long ago and that is the price that is worth buying at and the market is still highly sceptical on MNG...They are the masters not individual share holders but each could be wrong but generally its not the market and imo the BoE are far too slow and behind the curve on interest rates and still are. Rates will get back to longer term values ie above 5%..

[cjac39] 25/9/2022 10:27

all getting exciting now though whatever your views. having followed eurofox's endeavours for a couple of years I have zero doubt as to the authenticity.

its simply amazing the moves we are seeing in rates at the moment but my personal view is that mkts are completely overreacting. you don't get to carry productivity with huge nominal debt loads and afford interest rates of 5%. the debt overhand is too extreme and for me , despite people saying its a new era, the inflation phenomenon is temporary and the housing market and commodity markets are rolling over at an incredible pace.

as to what it does to aviva I would say on balance it will be positive. higher interest rates are more comfortable than lower for insurers in general terms (I've explained the detail before) and I don't think, unlike MNG, that they've hedged out the low interest rate effects.

however I have taken the recent mkt falls as an opportunity to quadruple down on MNG rather than aviva. both equity and now also bonds as I think they will start buying them back and its an easy tax free gain as a QCB

[eurofox] 24/9/2022 13:24

Please yourself, I am genuinely pleased at the action we are seeing, especially as it begins to get the distortions of leverage out of the market. In fact I'm disappointed that I didn't leave more of my capital longer in the market and tend to make the mistake of going risk-off too soon, but when you get a day like Friday (and no doubt a few more to come) that will correct itself.

[klotzak] 24/9/2022 12:58

Eurofox, I doubt the authenticity of anything you say. Surely nobody comes on here to boast how clever they are? That would be a trait of poor interpersonal skills. Surely you are that type of investor?

[jubberjim] 23/9/2022 16:37

Sold half remaining

Went for the old favourites lgen mmg and good old phnx got my abdn today


My pubs and breweries are taking a beating

Not so much cash left but love the mayhem at the moment

Have to raid wife's piggy bank at this rate but she loves me more importantly she trusts me so onward mercenaries

Starmer and co are laughing up their sleeves.Job done

Waiting now on New York and far east to carry on sets us up for interesting weeks ahead
Stay safe good luck

[tuftymatt] 23/9/2022 15:45

Good work eurofox.
Based on buying a few shares, I am hoping that one day I look back on today with fondness too.

[eurofox] 23/9/2022 15:41

I must be the only delighted person on this board - fantastic trading day and given I'm still 63% cash, may find some gilts at 6% yield by Xmas - roll on

[geckotheglorious] 23/9/2022 11:45

Everyone got a tax cut.
Basic rate of income tax cut.
NI rise due rolled back.

Cutting high rate tax from 45% to 40% makes little impact in the big scheme of things.

Corp tax cut too.

But an end to cheap energy prices(shouldve cut the Green levies for starters) means many businesses will be going bust this winter/early 2023 and paying no tax at all so their corp tax rate irrelevant.

[goodpick] 23/9/2022 11:43

A political mis step - cutting taxes primiarily for the rich.

All sounds a but naive too.

[cyberian] 23/9/2022 11:31

What a mess, a terrible mini budget and the UK Government borrowing costs have just climbed to very high levels never seen such movements in a single day previously. Truss will prove a disaster, and so are those that voted and followed her reckless plan. Sorry but very disheartened.

[tuftymatt] 23/9/2022 11:10

That and US futures too = a major risk off day!!

[p0pper] 23/9/2022 11:07

I take it the market don't like the mini budget lol

[jubberjim] 23/9/2022 05:16

At what time will the chancellor be making presenting hi s mini budget

I don t know about anyone else but I am starting to feel uneasy as to how the markets are shaping up

Will try and stay out until things calm down or better news appears

Batten down Be good

[1robbob] 22/9/2022 12:37

Makinbuks
I totally disagree

What is the point of a Solvency Ratio if you consider that an 80% excess of that level to be inadequate

The BOD of AV adopted the 180% target level in the full knowledge of the inevitable relaxation in B2 rules.

I contend that the level of interest rates post 2008 has been unrealistic
and hostile to insurers such as AV and the general order of credit markets
Savers have been subsidising borrowers

Some form of normality is at last being restored

Personally I expect the AV Sovency Ratio to be circa 230% at the year end ie £3.85bn surplus over 180%
Say Dividend cost £900m, a further £1bn debt reduction and £650m share buyback(5% of equity) = £2.55bn would still leave the Solvency Ratio at 197%

...a 10p Special would reduce the ratio by less than 4% !!!

Nothing wrong with a difference of opinion!!
Lets agree to disagree