Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[roundtheworld] 28/9/2022 12:58

Cjac

Are you adding at these levels?

[eurofox] 28/9/2022 12:58

thanks cjac39

[cjac39] 28/9/2022 12:54

i can only think its the us quant funds woken up again. time and again when asset prices fall they think insurers are levered 7x in the annuity space so they must be losing capital. MTM accounting just does not apply to annuities whether it be bond prices falling from yields or interest rates. overall its irrelevant in annuities so long as ratings don't worsen materially.

[roundtheworld] 28/9/2022 12:53

Spud

You can’t argue with that price! Well done.

Euro fox - Even better.

[eurofox] 28/9/2022 12:50

cjac39, How do you see the impact of all this on MNG since you considerably increased your position

[eurofox] 28/9/2022 12:45

got order filled at 374

[muscletrade] 28/9/2022 12:43

@cjack39..many thanks, much appreciated.

[hubshank] 28/9/2022 12:38

I think no have cairn / Capricorn right - working off small screen difficult to cross reference

[hubshank] 28/9/2022 12:37

Is this anything to do with their involvement with Tullow oil and Cairn/ Capricorn

[cjac39] 28/9/2022 12:34

MT - i dont see it personally but clearly they are all very exposed to property predominantly through the equity release mortgage market. however short term prop movements are pretty irrelevant - a sustained long term decline is what would matter.


interest rates moving up sharply in general would be good as it shrinks their balance sheets which lowers their risk capital requirements. in GI books interest rates and spreads will cause losses but the duration is lower so whilst meaningful (and only av not lng mng) not existential.

general asset values declining obvisaouly not good in net assets and asset mgrs.

but the sharpness of the move today is not fundamental I would say.

[spud] 28/9/2022 12:33

Well I got my 375.

spud

[boxerdogz] 28/9/2022 12:31

Dear BOE we need interest rates to normalise, lets say 6-7%

[roundtheworld] 28/9/2022 12:31

174!!!

Who would have thought.

[action] 28/9/2022 12:30

The way it is going our government is playing roulette with country future. B4 that ECB used to screw us now it is our own. You too Brutas then fall .....uk

[123trev] 28/9/2022 12:30

It’s always been obvious that a Liz truss government would be a disaster it’s in no way up to the task of dealing with the current situation not that it’s her fault entirely but this needs more attention than pork and cheese her inexperience is a clear red flag to markets

[shrout] 28/9/2022 12:27

I saw Michael Fish on Newsnight a few weeks ago. He came across as a broken, doddery old fool. I don't think he ever recovered from that ridiculous hurricane blooper..

[muscletrade] 28/9/2022 12:24

@cjac39...The big question for those not as knowledgable as you are on the technicalities... is what are the further risks to the likes of Aviva, Lgen, M&G and Phx. The first three are still off 8% and change and Phx is not far behind.This despite US futures improving quite a lot in last few hours etc, although sterling still hovering around 106 to USD

[tuftymatt] 28/9/2022 12:20

I do.
I also remember a certain Michael Fish became more famous that month too!!

[skinny] 28/9/2022 12:18

October? - who else remembers October 19, 1987? - I'll get me coat....

[cjac39] 28/9/2022 12:06

cyberian - no its in l&g because its an asset mgmt product they are in in a large way not because they are life insurer. other big players are for eg schroders. therefore I don't think its a balance sheet risk of the insurers but I'm not so familiar with how non recourse the LDI fund structures are. i suspect its the inv banks sitting behind them that are on risk for the collateral not being supplied but p funds who will default.

its really a similar failing to 08 where they size liquidity around var models and forget that real yields used to be 1-2% going back 20years plus and therefore liquidity needs to be able to deal with low rates.

i remember the same conversations the other way around when people said look at japan and rates could hit zero and were laughed at.

[cyberian] 28/9/2022 11:30

cjac39....last night the Times on line Business Section were saying that LGEN were heavily exposed to lending to funds in the LDI market and on Sunday were calling in those on margin. I wonder if AV. are in a similar situation or less exposed...failing to meet margin calls sets off selling other instruments including liquid equities to raise cash. Still think it will take some time to sort out this mess caused by this arrogant Tory Party...again next weeks's Conference speeches will be a torrid time...how can that xxxx Reece-Mogg and others give rallying calls and cheers for Truss and Chancellor?

[123trev] 28/9/2022 11:19

Probably see a little rally soon before a crash to 6500 late October setting us up for a dire 2023 depending on what the big guns use to fleece the retail investors.

[geckotheglorious] 28/9/2022 11:10

Not this year Smurfy, suspect it will worsen over Winter.

October crash anyone?