Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[spud] 12/10/2020 16:38

Suspect it's being narrow margin traded atm. spud

[linton5] 12/10/2020 14:15

You mean the mms are fixed with it,manipulated the right word sir

[leedslad001] 12/10/2020 13:05

We need to break this 300 it's only a number but people get fixated about numbers

[cyberian] 12/10/2020 10:47

A decisive push through 300p maybe just the tonic we need...not much to add.

[chinese investor] 12/10/2020 09:41

50p To 350p (my break even price) !

[linton5] 09/10/2020 16:33

🤯🥶🤔🥱9314;🤐ԅ80;🤫sums aviva up hahaha not even a trading share getting now that’s summin

[action] 09/10/2020 16:21

I bought on the news at 305p rather than sell on the news.

[yf23_1] 09/10/2020 16:01

Anybody think the large t/o today is the last of te seller ?

[wba1] 08/10/2020 19:48

Thanks cjac. I must admit I was thinking (and maybe hoping) that Aviva may have bought CDS protection on some of their corporate bond holdings before the sky fell and when the cost would have been much lower. But as long as they are not taking the risk of writing any we cannot complain!

[1robbob] 08/10/2020 12:47

Interesting the shallowness of the % daily movement in the FTSE in recent days.
Could be that Market Makers sense buying demand and so are reluctant to knock it too much; even when the news apears to be negative.
...or are they sensing a Brexit deal!!

[leedslad001] 08/10/2020 11:34

Your welcome

[ianood] 08/10/2020 10:50

Thank you mystic meg!

[leedslad001] 08/10/2020 09:54

Could get a retreat to 288 then bounce that's without news

[carpingtris] 07/10/2020 13:40

300p would be summit ;)

[whatsup32] 07/10/2020 13:13

It looks like at best we will tread water or drift lower until we have some news on disposals and Dividends

[whatsup32] 07/10/2020 12:39

Right now I’ll be happy with just 305p :)

[spud] 07/10/2020 08:22

Break 305p and it's a clear run to 400p. spud

[whatsup32] 07/10/2020 08:07

£3 again

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 06/10/2020 23:04

Any insurer is down, along with the rest.

[ianood] 06/10/2020 19:42

wba1 & cjac39
As ever many thanks to you both for excellent information.

[spcecks] 06/10/2020 17:04

wba1 Thanks for sharing much appreciated.

[cjac39] 06/10/2020 15:53

hi wba - i worked for a while in credit derivs in 2000s. what was going on then is unlikely to ever happen again in terms of the extraordinary leverage being created in cdos and fin gtees via rating arbitrage so i woudlnt worry too much if u see an insurer mention cds or even clo which are more benign.

when funding markets are very dysfunctional like after gfc and again in 2012, buying bonds and hedging with cds can be good thing to do otherwise known as negative basis, where you basically get paid a funding spread. however at the moment its not that interesting as you pay away most of the bond spread over swaps to buy protection. therefore i doubt they have much. from time to time insurers may take out macro credit hedges like tranches on broad credit indices but at the margin again.

most insulation to spreads comes from insurers have a matching adjustment portfolio where they can back annuities with credit of same duration and then spread movements arent counted but transition risk and default is.

a complicated topic but suffice to say aviva are prob more worried about rating downgrades than spreads moving

[eurofox] 06/10/2020 15:30

Perhaps negative interest rates for corporates will change all of that

[1robbob] 06/10/2020 15:28

Re Reserving
In my experience across all quoted industies it is a complete 'black art'. CEOs always manage to find a reason for over providing in good times and over releasing in bad times.

[edmundshaw] 06/10/2020 15:21

Thanks wba, that is great information.

I guess the insurers can claim that due to the uvprecedented nature of the fallout from this and next year the standard methods of reserving are not reliable and must be buffered generously...