Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[edmundshaw] 28/9/2020 11:36

Vitamin D study in Spain: could that be a game changer re: COVID??

If hospitalisation means near certain cure with no ill effects, infection of all but the most vulnerable will become a less pressing issue, as long as there are (non-ICU) wards to accomodate the numbers...

[edmundshaw] 28/9/2020 11:32

DB is actually looking ahead with its price target. Congratulations!

[mo123] 28/9/2020 09:44

DEUTSCHE BANK RAISES AVIVA TO 'BUY' ('HOLD') - TARGET 375 (350) PENCE

[martindjzz] 28/9/2020 09:18

I’ve bought in for the first time today with my normal position size. AV specific factors seem quite compelling, but beyond that we are entering a very hard market for general insurance and premium rates are rising fast across many property and liability classes. General insurance profitability should surge.

[whatsup32] 28/9/2020 08:18

Showing early gain to 290p. We may get over £3 if it continues like this’ll is that just too wishful

[whatsup32] 27/9/2020 20:30

Life insurer LV in takeover talks. Will be confirmed Monday . FT

[wba1] 26/9/2020 22:55

I am slightly surprised at Allianz emerging as front runner for Aviva France as I recall hearing both Bate (the current Allianz CEO) and Diekmann (his predecessor) being rude about the difficulty of aligning French business practices with the Allianz model. However, I guess the suggested price does make it pretty irresistible when, like Allianz, you have access to funds well in excess of the combined price for all the Aviva companies on the block. I am guessing that Allianz will also be very interested in Italy. As a rule of thumb Allianz like to be in the top 3 in any national market, and buying Aviva Italy non-life would pull them closer to Generali in second spot in non-life(from their current third). Not sure of the implications of buying France as the deal seems to be more complex.

The interesting thing with France will be if others enter the auction. Allianz will want a bargain.

[edmundshaw] 26/9/2020 21:17

More or less agreed on COVID there. I don't think it will be around for long as a serious drag on the economy - I see a number of ways it can resolve, and am more concerned that Rishi gets it right on that score.

I agree that France is the most likely next disposal assuming good enough offers come along. One at a time is probably best for a couple of reasons... but if the price is wrong having a second string to the disposal bow could be handy.

[cjac39] 26/9/2020 14:17

That would be impressive timing. I think the Singapore sale was previously discussed a few years ago so the timing of that was prob easier. Running a new process from say July when ab was appointed I would guess would take many months. Filling the data room and can take weeks alone.

Given differences in businesses and how annoying french regulators are and it’s scale it doesn’t surprise me France will be first. But I’d be amazed if they tried running two large processes in synch. France first. Then Italy. Then Poland would be my guess.

Getting something signed in 4 months that large and regulated would be good going but not impossible.

Still though it will be material value upside.

My point on covid was not to have another disagreement ES more that mkts are still highly impacted and therefore high beta stocks like insurers still v impacted. As the second wave becomes a second puddle (it’s not second anyway just first and seasonal effects) then mkts should finally understand and rerate beaten up financials

[1robbob] 26/9/2020 12:36

Could be a very busy couple of months for Aviva.

Presumably AB will be hoping that most, if not all, of the disposals will have been agreed by 26th November. Then the future Dividend policy can be based on the reshaped group.

[edmundshaw] 26/9/2020 12:20

Should be a good update. Seems like Aviva has been making serious progress, so should have some good things to say!

[1robbob] 26/9/2020 11:51

A date for our diaries:

Operating update - third quarter 2020 26 Nov 2020

Presumably this will include the much awaited Dividend announcements re
the (delayed/deffered/cancelled !!) 2019 Final and 2020 onwards

[spud] 26/9/2020 11:03

Let's not forget the B word! spud

[edmundshaw] 26/9/2020 10:45

cjac, some people don't think COVID is done yet, but time will tell and for myself I do think the story is at least 50% through now, just a matter of time. And the market is supposed to look ahead, right? So from an investor standpoint we do not have to argue about COVID unless you are worried about trading the exact point of the lows, IMO.

[spud] 26/9/2020 10:02

Far simpler and more attractive to buy a more compact and streamlined company with bags of cash (as AV is becoming) than a dysfunctionally cash poor (relatively speaking) one.spud

[heialex1] 25/9/2020 23:31

Yup. U.K. market has been lagging, Sterling hasn't recovered from its Brexit hit... on that note, and not to start a fire storm, brexit doesn't really seem to be doing much good, does it... the rest of the world will keep buying valuable U.K. companies at discounts...

[cjac39] 25/9/2020 20:40

That’s an interesting side point - it seems quite clear that PE and US buyers are casting around beaten up UK stocks. William hill is the start of this. Aviva is not immune from this even at its market cap. Now Covid is done (pls don’t post cases as counter factual) I expect an acceleration of this trend

[1robbob] 25/9/2020 19:38

I do have my tougue in my cheek here!!!!!

Of course I fully understand the Maths...but I stand by my suggestion
Traditional buy-backs through the market never work. Too small to make a lssting difference just a waste of shareholders cash
...and as you point out it is in the company's interest for the share price to keep
falling whilst buying back the shares!!!!...so short the shares to the Company and buy them back later.
No thanks

If France alone is going to realise circa 25% plus of our Market Capitalisation
One would have thaught that the potential buyers might think of buying the entire Company

Offering to Buy-back by Tender 20%-25% of the equity that would make a difference !!. Perversely the share price would rise and almost certainly insufficient stock would be tendered...perhaps!! but the price momentum would have been established

AB really does have to think outside the box to bring about a lasting change in the markets' view of Aviva

[cjac39] 25/9/2020 18:11

I’m not sure about that 1robbob

It’s better for shareholders to acquire shares at the cheapest price possible. Think if some selling shareholders were happy to sell shares for 1p and aviva cancel them. If they bought 1 share and there were a total of 11 shares and a nav of 20 then you as a shareholder have gone from owning 1/11 of 20 to 1/10 of 19 (1 of cash is gone) so your nav ps has gone from 1.81 to 1.9. As you raise the price paid that profit declines. So pay the lowest price under nav to acquire the shares for sure. Creating an artificial price like this would be transitory if mkt doesn’t believe it’s right price but still profitable if nav is £5

[1robbob] 25/9/2020 17:26

I would reiterate an earlier post of mine

When the asset sales are complete, if the share price has failed to recover, I do think that AB should consider a Tender Offer to buy back shares at around 400p (ie significantly higher than the share price but lower than the asset value per share)

.....But definitely not a market share buy-back programme which only rewards short sellers and is proven to have no effect in improving the share price