Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[whatsup32] 30/9/2020 13:26

If only it wasn’t ‘fool.com

[spud] 30/9/2020 11:59

Here’s why I think the Aviva share price could be set to double
Alan Oscroft | Wednesday, 30th September, 2020



Insurance company shares tend to be more volatile than the FTSE 100. Both in times of exuberance and in times of gloom. Aviva (LSE: AV) is a good example. The Aviva share price has fallen 32% in 2020, compared to a 22% drop for the index. The shares are only around 286p now, after starting the year above 420p.

Prior to the arrival of the Covid-19 pandemic, Aviva was already struggling a little. Investors weren’t too happy with the lack of impetus from top management. They just seemed to be happy muddling along and paying dividends. But the rest of the industry was working towards greater efficiency following on from the financial crisis.

As an Aviva shareholder, I didn’t object too strenuously to taking the dividends. But the Aviva share price performance hasn’t impressed me much. It was lagging the Footsie even before the 2020 crash. Some of the cash being handed out as dividends could surely be put to better use, aiming for longer-term gains.

New chief executive

Amid the pandemic chaos of 2020, we’ve seen some very positive moves from Aviva. And you might have missed their importance while seeking to avoid the depressed sector altogether. The key move was the appointment of Amanda Blanc as new CEO in July.

As my Motley Fool colleague G A Chester has suggested, her rapid investment of £1m in Aviva shares was a big vote of confidence. At today’s Aviva share price, she’s down a little, but I think she’ll do well from those shares over the long term.

Under Blanc’s leadership, Aviva has already moved to sell off a majority stake in Aviva Singapore. The sale, to a consortium led by Singapore Life Ltd, is expected to conclude by January 2021. It will raise £1.6bn, which will do some good for the balance sheet.

More changes to come?

I’m expecting more in the way of restructuring under the new boss. And there might be a short-term need to redirect capital. To that end, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Aviva dividend rebased when it’s fully reinstated. Analysts currently forecast something close to the pre-pandemic levels and, on the current Aviva share price, they suggest yields of 9-10%. So there’s room for something less than that while still providing a decent yield. And, under a new boss is often the best timing for such changes.

Even with a rebased dividend, I’d still see Aviva as one of the best buys on the FTSE 100 right now. We’re looking at forward P/E multiples way down in single digits. Forecasts suggest something between 5 and 5.5, which I think offers plenty of upside. The shares are trading at a hefty discount to net asset value too, which lends further support for a potential bullish resurgence.

Can the Aviva share price double?

Brexit is still weighing heavily on financial stocks, and I don’t expect them to get back to index-average P/E ratios of around 14 for a while. But something around 10 or 11 wouldn’t be stretching at all, in my view.

I could easily see Aviva shares doubling in price over the next 12-24 months, and still looking like decent long-term value.

spud

[ianood] 30/9/2020 10:52

pally12 - Have I missed something, what is the relevance of this article to Aviva?

[bothdavis] 29/9/2020 21:35

Errrrrrr....whole market was down today!!

[linton5] 29/9/2020 18:36

Getting that way dope a long long way to go and suffer

[dope007] 29/9/2020 18:06

Quoted on the UK mkts is the only excuse any stock needs to be valued at stuff all

[essentialinvestor] 29/9/2020 17:11

For you knowledgeable people, is there a reson the motor insurers were
down sharply today?.

[1robbob] 29/9/2020 10:09

Just on the savings point; some of us may be a tad older than others!!!

From memory in the early 1970s when inflation hit near 30% savings rates were circa 10%...a net loss in real terms of 20%

Currently inflation at say 1% (but probably approaching zero or deflation!) and interest rates at zero..net loss in real terms of 1%

In the intervening years, I would guess that on aveage real interest rates have been circa zero throughout

[1pencil] 29/9/2020 09:35

I expect to see more of these headlines over the coming months pushing markets higher, at least that's the theory.

Not sure on the 'active' management bit though, generally high ego based fees coupled with shabby performance.

Savings are dead – should you pay for an 'active manager' for your cash?

Top savings rates disappear within days – and it is only going to get worse

[carpingtris] 28/9/2020 20:57

Or buy some supplements for those of us too lazy, lol

[1pencil] 28/9/2020 20:22

Mushrooms..

..put some regular mushrooms out in the sun for 15 minutes or so, these little vegetables synthase vitamin D similar to human body.

[whatsup32] 28/9/2020 17:55

Nice start , hopefully breach £3 tomorrow . Would be nice to get more interest in French sale , possibly more bidders?

[leedslad001] 28/9/2020 17:16

All in good time it won't be when us pi,s want it will be up to the big boys

[cyberian] 28/9/2020 16:04

We were at nearly 310p just recently so why can't we breach that level again?

[samwn1] 28/9/2020 15:49

Do you get Vitamin D from California Syrup of Figs?

[edmundshaw] 28/9/2020 15:30

Camp coffee? I hated the stuff... and not the only one. As I recall there was a bottle of it collecting in our larder for about a decade...

[eurofox] 28/9/2020 15:14

I'm wrong about being able to call it that and get it now ... Google shows it on Amazon!

[eurofox] 28/9/2020 15:10

Well cyberian, you can probably also recall Camp Coffee from those days (they couldn't call it that now) which was a concentrated liquid in bottles, which if I remember rightly had something like chicory in it.

[whatsup32] 28/9/2020 14:46

My target £3 end of day getting closer

[eurofox] 28/9/2020 13:48

Cod liver oil contains most of what is needed ... and is not new as a supplement ...I remember as a child, just after world war 2, having to take it by the tablespoon!!

[cyberian] 28/9/2020 13:40

Very good posts on Vitamin D which clearly has some benefit with Covid-19 but "edmundshaw" your second paragraph is absolutely KEY and should be carefully noted. WELL DONE posters.

[cjac39] 28/9/2020 12:51

hmm that sounds very interesting - i will take a read of that