Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 25/6/2020 12:54

Hopefully vaccine options will be available during 2021,
even if they could mitigate the more serious symptoms it would be a huge breakthrough. However, COVID does not look to be burning itself out and the
view expressed by some that warm weather would make it disappear now looks risible.
It's now very warm in those US states where cases are rising rapidly.

[gary1966] 25/6/2020 07:20

Unfortunately cyberian it comes down to individuals more so than it does governments and my observation of individuals is not that great.

[cyberian] 25/6/2020 00:41

I like the quite positive vaccine development announcements yesterday...rather promising with Imperial's novel approach and those at Oxford...fingers crossed. Personally think the global efforts will succeed which along with other drug treatments will rescue us from all the doom and gloom merchants. The key issue in Europe and the Far East is to keep the virus under control over the very near term...hopefully this will influence the rather cavalier approach in the Americas.

[hhhold2] 24/6/2020 15:33

Really like to see this below 250p again in the next few weeks,

the market needs to get all the skeletons out the closet (Ralph, Hughie,).

[wba1] 24/6/2020 15:16

My view of Tulloch is coloured by my background in underwriting. It is obvious from his record when he was running Canada that he either does not understand risk pricing or (even worse) is one of those CEOs who always prioritise top line growth (presumably having read the various papers purporting to show that the share price (at least in the short term) responds more positively to volume than profit. No doubt this is true until the market starts wondering where the profit is.

I agree completely with cjac39 about the need to look externally for talent. Since Richard Harvey they have promoted inadequates following a civil war (Moss), replaced Moss with a safe but uninspring external choice (Wilson) and then looked internally to a man with a poor record (Tulloch). And all the time they have driven away what little talent they had internally, from TidJane Thiam (overlooked in favour of Moss, became CEO of Credit Suisse) to Bridget McIntyre (Patrick Snowball's protege who went on to run RSA in the UK). Whether that they both came from minorities in management (African and female) had anything to do with it some may suggest - I could not possibly comment.

I see the divi decision as a side issue (but indicative of management weakness). The far bigger issue is sorting out management and structure/strategy. But I also agree that staying invested at this level is a no brainer.

[wadders5] 24/6/2020 13:58

Bought a batch to trade with without messing with main holding.
See if i can make a quick £1k profit.
So get ready for it to tank!!!

[ftime] 24/6/2020 12:29

I disagree, its more a case of if the dow says drop, the FTSE says how low!

[igoe104] 24/6/2020 10:51

Yep, when the DOW says jump , the ftse says how high.

[linton5] 24/6/2020 10:41

Just hate the ftse being the puppet of allmarkets 🍌🍌🍌

[eurofox] 24/6/2020 10:22

At last - a few stops being knocked out

[cjac39] 24/6/2020 06:19

wba prob. better placed than I on tulloch given his background. my grumble is in a small part on the divi which was annoying but somewhat understandable given pra actions.

my main grumble is the seemingly incoherent strategy around capital allocation. they have a somewhat random collection of businesses around the world that dont really make coherent sense as a collective. they need to narrow down and concentrate on where they have market leading businesses.

in the uk they clearly have an excellent franchise which they could do much more with if mgmt wasnt distracted with asia, France, etc. they could and should also slim right down in terms of headcount.

they need to stop internally promoting and bring more external people in with fresh perspective as they did with munro.

ill wait for the divi in q4 and the eventual retrace to above £4. if at that time its still yielding >7% and that looks sustainable its prob worth holding more but if they reduce the divi then prob thats the end (and it may not get to £4)

[salver2] 24/6/2020 01:07

The presumption on this board is that the management team are not really up to the job broadly because of the pulled dividend- which showed weakness and the lousy share price - cjac and wba are possibly best to answer this question - what is Tullochs reputation within the industry -remember though their results in Feb or March weren’t bad at all - quite encouraging in fact but you wouldn’t think it - should we maybe give them the benefit of the doubt till August and then judge from there - or am I being too nice ??

[cjac39] 23/6/2020 22:17

blimey id close out and be long gone if this went up 70%. im holding for divi restart and mkt eventual renormalisation of value of divs then im gone. ultimately a great uk business surrounded by less good offshore businesses , an incoherent strategy and a poor management team. not a value trap and mispriced for sure but not a team nor co i would back for value compounding

[salver2] 23/6/2020 17:17

More to the point why would you only hold it if there’s 70 percent upside - I never understand the point of these analysts

[cjac39] 23/6/2020 15:27

must be depressing to be an equity analyst and tip something 70% over the market price and on the day it barely moves.

[adelwire2] 23/6/2020 14:36

477p nice... DJ Futures looking promising

[eurofox] 23/6/2020 13:42

This redemption is probably a smart move, demonstrating financial strength, ability to refinance at lower rates, etc. Although I was hoping to get another bite at lower prices, I suspect that given the European PMI figures to day, we have probably seen the last of really low prices. Still have my core holdings intact and will not trade above 255p - its not worth being out at the moment.

[spud] 23/6/2020 13:32

FWIW:

Berenberg today initiates coverage of Aviva PLC [LON:AV.] with a hold investment rating and price target of 477p.

spud

[spud] 23/6/2020 13:31

Aviva To Redeem GBP500 Million Of Luxembourg-Listed Notes (Alliance News) - Insurer Aviva PLC on Tuesday said it intends to redeem GBP500 million of ...
Alliance News23 June, 2020 |

(Alliance News) - Insurer Aviva PLC on Tuesday said it intends to redeem GBP500 million of 5.9021% fixed-floating rate direct capital instruments.

The London-based company intends to redeem the instruments in full on July 27 at their principal amount, together with accrued interest. Aviva also will cancel the listing of the instruments on the Luxembourg Stock Exchange.

Shares in the FTSE-100 listed company were up 1.8% at 279.62 pence each in London on Tuesday morning.
By Tapan Panchal; [e-mail]

spud

[adelwire2] 23/6/2020 12:12

That's a bit better

[eurofox] 22/6/2020 17:19

... that is 70% sold from the offer (i.e.sell orders) at lower and lower prices!

[action] 22/6/2020 17:08

70% buy today.

[eurofox] 22/6/2020 16:55

looking for next buys at 240p ish

[gary1966] 22/6/2020 16:47

Share price has closed marginally below the 20DMA which has offered good support for nearly a month. RSI is falling and has a little way to go. 50DMA would be the next line of support at just below 255p. This would also enable the gap to be filled at 262.2p but may then open up the gap at 239.5p to be targeted. FTSE not being able to push through 6308 is also putting a lid on general markets presently as well.

Interesting times.

[cjac39] 22/6/2020 13:34

yes theyve linked 2020 bonuses of senior people to restarting the dividend