Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[p0pper] 17/6/2020 08:51

Eurofox, don't think negative rates will make a huge difference, may just as well be negative now they are so low.

[eurofox] 17/6/2020 08:34

Negative interest rates will be a turning point for dividend stocks and the dividend will return

[cjac39] 17/6/2020 08:26

Nonsense. Retail flows are close to irrelevant vs quant funds nowadays. I’d buy that in small caps but not ftse100 stocks. Cash waiting on sidelines, investors buying in, etc are all jingoistic nonsense statements that have limited impact now in computer driven markets

[hhhold2] 17/6/2020 08:00

Articles written recently state that naïve investors have piling in & have helped pump up the market while funds are sitting on the sidelines with their cash waiting & watching for the 2nd crash that is supposed to be coming,

either way it will be interesting to see what happens over the next few months.

[cjac39] 17/6/2020 07:35

its good to hear that im not going mad in my own lockdown. like eurofox ive invested nigh on 80% of my spare capital now in insurance companies like av. there will be no second wave and the virus was never exponential. restart the divi in q4 and this will be > 350 and more

[cassini] 17/6/2020 01:47

PS: Something like 25% of the 'excess deaths' in the UK are unaccounted for in terms of any connection with Covid-19. I did hear TV news trying to suggest that there was some direct link but perhaps the record keeping wasn't up to scratch in these cases. Not that I pay much heed to TV news these days if I want an objective view of what's happening.

I have another suggestion - these unaccounted excess deaths are people who either did not seek medical/social help for non COVID-19 medical/social complaints because of the lockdown or their existing hospital waiting times grew even longer and they died as a secondary effect of the lockdown. I have no evidence for this, it's just a suspicion but any enquiry into the Lockdown ought to examine the collateral damage done by it not just to the economy but for other health/social problems.

[eurofox] 16/6/2020 23:14

I have taken the view the lockdown was totally over the top for some time and that is why I have been pouring money into Aviva because it has suffered a price drop that is also totally over the top.

[gutterhead] 16/6/2020 22:32

Used 30 of the beds in 4000 bed nightingale pop up hospital. Total over reaction and sending old back to care homes to free up beds didn’t help.
Cancer detection was halted also. That’s a time bomb.
Tory panic to show they are the NHS party and hold onto voters.
Whichever party was in power couldn’t win....the post-mortem will last for years

[cjac39] 16/6/2020 21:42

Just think about it though. Run the scenario that all the modelling stochastic idiots with their predictive models got it wrong. It’s entirely possible they did as their models are full of unknown assumptions. So we’ve locked down on some statistical distributions that are entirely theoretical. Sounds good?

[cassini] 16/6/2020 21:17

CDC in the USA said in May that the mortality rate for those showing symptoms was 0.4%. However, one third of people are asymptomatic when they have the disease. Overall then, the mortality rate is 0.26% - worse than a bad flu year (~0.2%) but not by much. It does spread quickly though so there can be a lot of sick people simultaneously straing the system.

As cjac inferred, in the UK 95% of those that died had one or more pre-existing co-morbidities (diabetes, asthma, heart disease etc).

The whole thing went over the top when Boris was presented with that computer model from Imperial College claiming that up to 500,000 could die. Up 'til then he was pushing 'herd immunity'.

Sweden's lockdown - well there wasn't one really except for no mass events - resulted in a slightly lower pro rata death rate than the UK.

I agree with cjac, if this thing is honestly analysed the reaction was over the top. I expect though it's in a lot of people's interests not to analyse it too closely... of course, the government had to do something to reduce the death rate to an 'acceptable' level, but considering the profile of those that died, only the vulnerable need have gone through lockdown. Let's hope that the next time this happens the government/nursing homes/NHS etc have their act together.

[cjac39] 16/6/2020 20:46

Omg this whole thing is doing my head in. Yes it’s a bit nasty and multi organ. But this applies only to people with metabolic issues. Some bad outcomes I’d admit but no more than two of the worse influenza outcomes in last ten years. And by the way in the U.K. it’s blown through. We will look back on this and feel embarrassed at how we have panicked about this whole thing.

[eurofox] 16/6/2020 20:42

is this the vaccine we have all been waiting for?

[spud] 16/6/2020 20:25

I guess that can't continue indefinitely!spud

[whatsup32] 16/6/2020 19:50

US banks paid nearly twice as much in dividends as earned. FT

They must be laughing at us. :)

[eurofox] 16/6/2020 15:45

we need weak holders to bail out now

[hhhold2] 16/6/2020 15:30

Maybe a double top coming, market still a little to much to soon maybe,

hard to see much more upside as the money printer might get turned off at some point, maybe when China has unloaded the USA dept USA will stop with the printing,,

would like to see this a bit cheaper,

[wba1] 16/6/2020 12:28

adelwire2;

Be careful who you choose as your top management. Not sure how long you have been looking at this board but you will find a long history of questioning the merits of the Aviva board.

[3ootuk] 16/6/2020 11:20

Has Nationwide been a beacon of light though? None of them can afford to pay savers a decent interest rate, and there's no loyalty required to get a mortgage from any of them.

[adelwire2] 16/6/2020 10:16

And the significance??

[dr biotech] 16/6/2020 10:00

Really the whole carpet bagging movement of demutualisation was a disaster. Most of the building societies would have been better off remain mutuals (halifax/Northern Rock/B&B etc). Whilst I made a few quid myself it wasn't a lot as I was a skint student and the short term gains made by the account holders has been to the nations detriment.

I can't think off the top of my head of a demutualisation from that period that lead to a stronger market leading company, with better customer service.

[wba1] 16/6/2020 09:08

The LV situation shows what can happen when you get the wrong management. Way back in 2005 a bunch of carpetbaggers ousted Malcolm Berryman as CEO (who took them from marginal to a decent player), thinking they could ride the demutualisation scam (they even failed at that). And from what I knew of LV then and LV now, I reckon the operation was worth more when Berryman left.

The trajectory of LV is almost a smaller example of how Aviva has lost value over many years, albeit that Aviva was cursed with inadequate senior management whilst LV was cursed by outsiders with an agenda of personal enrichment.

[adelwire2] 16/6/2020 08:44

3 pounds would be great?!?