Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[creme de menthe] 25/3/2020 07:29

Tfergi
I am down similar but on that metric you should have half a million left, which should see you through.

[tfergi] 24/3/2020 21:47

Dr - I'm down just under £150 k total portfolio even after today. It's a harsh world

[cjac39] 24/3/2020 18:57

i caught up with co this week so herein a few public side highlights interspersed with my own views:

in underwriting:
- they have business interruption in commercial and similar in personal plus travel. much of these dont include interruption from being prevented from keeping business open or travelling. more damage or events whilst on hols. however some exposure in both but sounded manageable and they have reinsurance.
- expecting positive underwriting outcomes on many other lines eg car
- some mortality events will come through life inc death in service but again they extensively use reinsurance to manage risk
- offsetting impact expected in the £75bln of annuities they have inc av pension fund. i estimate its about 20% > 80 yr olds by reserves maybe slightly more. so could be 500-1500 type swing.
- overall underwriting effect could be neutral or modestly one way or other but i doubt significant unless longevity bump and combined ratio from other lines is bigger
- impacts from markets in line with given sensitivities therefore likely to be similar to what they recently announced. ie around 175-180 sii
- therefore still well capitalised and presently i would think still planning on paying divi of 30p (vs 220sp) in june but i guess it depends on where solvency is and views of pra
- valn is mental. sii net debt bs was 15bln at ye without any goodwill for gi business or life business and they made 2.2bln vs 8bln mkt cap.

[itsnotmeitsy0u] 24/3/2020 18:53

thanks grampa

[creme de menthe] 24/3/2020 18:46

The markets will face another difficult period when global employment figures come in. US next week 2 or 3 million unemployed.
Be careful.

[uppompeii] 24/3/2020 18:25

I stopped looking last week. I see a 3 year stretch ahead to claw it back. I'll leave my retirement investments alone and live off savings and likely some equity release for a short period in a few years...have you seen how flexible and cheap ER is now?

[dr biotech] 24/3/2020 18:03

Yeah, possibly my best day ever in terms of %. Only down 120k this month..

[whatsup32] 24/3/2020 17:58

Nice rise . Another 10 days like this and may break even

[spud] 24/3/2020 15:57

Dividend is fine imo.

spud

[chinese investor] 24/3/2020 15:36

Green Shoots !

[smurfy2001] 24/3/2020 13:53

Aviva did pay the divi during the recession hope it still happens but understand if not

[jasp3] 24/3/2020 13:49

Defend the divi - debt was lowering and plenty of cash - we should be fine....

[linton5] 24/3/2020 08:52

Trying to get more always a slow mover these days

[spud] 24/3/2020 08:18

I'd be extremely surprised if Aviva cancelled or even trimmed the dividend tbh having not done so before. https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2020/03/07/is-avivas-9-dividend-yield-safe/spud

[linton5] 24/3/2020 07:20

I'm in the same boat creme aviva have never let shareholders down before if genl can give shareholders 20% at time of statement surely aviva can so many shareholders rely on this for everyday living and class av as a trojan of dividends like rdsb

[creme de menthe] 24/3/2020 07:12

There goes my income for 6 months.
No govt handouts for me though!

[sr2day] 24/3/2020 03:50

bound to cancel final div of 20.4p.everybody is taking advantage of the situation.ITV 5.4p,GFS 6.11p,MICROFOCUS 46.66p,MKS 7.10P,all cancelled .others will follow.so divs are out of the equation.

[gateside] 23/3/2020 21:41

No new cases in Wuhan for 5 days!

[carpingtris] 23/3/2020 21:17

Cases in Italy and Germany look to be slowing which is good news.. but we cannot be complacent.. China is having an uptick in cases imported and looks to now be isolating HK.

It's undoing the lockdowns so we can all return to normal life that'll be hard work to control without mass tests and contact tracing.

[wba1] 23/3/2020 20:31

I should have mentioned (in my post above) that Aviva paid over £5 billion for Friends Provident 5 years ago. That now forms just one part of the Life and Investors part of Aviva (along with the old NU operations). Whilst I accept that Aviva probably overpaid for FP, even a significant reduction in the paid price would suggest the merged operation should easily support a value of £5 billion for that part of Aviva.

Now is the time to keep our nerve (unless you aim to trade or have a short timescale).

[hhhold2] 23/3/2020 18:52

wba1 thanks for your informative reply, fair value meaning under current market sentiment even though we have not seen things fully unfold & no capitulation yet even though the recession is now going to happen,
when things turn around their could be unknowns come out of the closet also so I'm in no rush to buy shares & convert my cash, its going to get ugly & this could be the chance of a lifetime , Aviva exposure is what I'm interested in & how they will bounce back from what is going happen when companies start folding & everything plays out. enjoy your evening.

[creme de menthe] 23/3/2020 17:59

Bbc says rate of new infections in Italy and Germany is starting to fall.
Also gold had a strong rise today.
In 2009 gold rose preceeding a general recovery. Might the same be happening at the moment, which would indicate the bottom is not far away?

[wba1] 23/3/2020 17:33

hhhold;
Lets distinguish between market sentiment and fair value. Fair value is best seen as a sum of parts. Aviva's market cap is £8.3 billion. Taking some of the parts;

* Aviva has just over £5 billion of premium in personal lines. Direct Line, which is almost wholly a PL insurer with a similar risk profile in PL to Aviva has £3.2 billion. Direct Line is capitalised at £3.1 billion. You would expect Aviva's PL business to be valued at least the same as Direct Line. So that is £3 billion.

* Aviva also has circa £4.5 billion of commercial lines business. Generally CL business is more profitable than PL business (as it is for Aviva) and should be valued at least as highly as a PL account. So I would expect, on that basis, it to have a minimum value equal to the Aviva PL book - another £3 billion.

* The Aviva investors and life arms look similar, although not identical, to L&G which is capitalised at £8.3 billion. L&G generated an operating profit of £2.5 billion in 2019 compared to £1.9 billion in Aviva Life and Aviva Investors combined. Operating profit is the best metric for a sum of parts examination as it best represents the extractable value. On this basis it is difficult to see why this part of Aviva is worth less than £5 billion, even allowing a little for L&G's better recent record.

So, taking a sum of parts approach that adds up to £11 billion (based on the depressed valuation of comparable competitors) compared with the £8.3 billion present market cap. £11 billion is equivalent to 280p per share, without allowing for any market recovery and without any allowance for any areas where Aviva is stronger, such as its Solvency 2 ratio.

You may be right about market sentiment. You are definitely not right about fair value - unless you believe the competitors of Aviva are even more overvalued at present.

[eurofox] 23/3/2020 17:26

Windjammer ...Its ok being 92% cash but is that cash 50% down on what it would have been in January,


... no, its about 5% down overall, I always was mostly cash because I rode the bond market up but got out prior to the possibility of corbyn getting in

[spud] 23/3/2020 16:28

Very true W1NDJAMMER re 1476.

spud