Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[gaffer73] 19/3/2020 07:39

I think Coronavirus was made by Greta.

[123trev] 18/3/2020 22:14

The irony here now is that they reckon because pollution levels have dropped so drastically in China more people have survived than were killed by the virus.I wonder how that could play out in the rest of the world pollution particularly in the air quality is a big killer and cause of many medical conditions. It’s extremely sad that people are dying because of this virus but could more survive because of it in the long run! More than possible.

[euclid5] 18/3/2020 21:40

“On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of a strain of novel coronavirus disease, COVID-19, a global pandemic. Governments in affected areas have imposed a number of measures designed to contain the outbreak, including business closures, travel restrictions, quarantines and cancellations of gatherings and events. The spread of COVID-19 has resulted in an economic downturn in countries in which the Group operates and the global economy more widely, as well as causing increased volatility and declines in financial markets.

If the pandemic is prolonged, or further diseases emerge that give rise to similar effects, the adverse impact on the global economy could be deepened and result in further declines in financial markets. As an insurer the Group is also impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic through the Group’s life protection products as a result of increased mortality; income protection, critical illness and health insurance products as a result of increased morbidity; and general insurance products as a result of travel restrictions and business interruption.

The Covid-19 pandemic may also result in disruption to the Group’s key suppliers of goods and services and result in increased unavailability of staff adversely impacting the quality and continuity of service to customers and the reputation of the Group. As a result the business, results of operations, corporate reputation and financial condition of the Group could be adversely impacted for a substantial period of time.

[creme de menthe] 18/3/2020 19:33

Agree Dow will now fall fast. Uber, Tesla, Lyft etc all down heavily. But then the Dow is lagging europe and has further to fall than ftse. Maybe another 1000 points to come off?

[eurofox] 18/3/2020 18:20

downward break will be all the way down to DOW at 12000

[kaffee] 18/3/2020 17:39

Gotta laugh. DOW is off 2bags of sand and IG index show net longs have actually gone down in the last hour.

[kaffee] 18/3/2020 17:37

Yeah...dont think so.

[tfergi] 18/3/2020 12:45

20,000 DOW and 5000 FTSE look like key levels

[uppompeii] 18/3/2020 12:00

Spcecks, there was a bit in The Times...CORONAVIRUSAviva planning dividend despite fears over falling interest ratesWent into the Solvency ll falling from 206% at end of year to 175% now and that it was still the upper end of their comfort zone, so divi not under threat. I dont subscribe so couldnt see the full article.

[123trev] 18/3/2020 11:23

I imagine more people will die from financial shock one way or another than from Covid 19 around the world and that’s a fact. Investments,businesses,jobs etc gone but not for the reasons you think! A corrupt system built on huge debts a changing energy policy where the petro dollar begins to vanish,climate catastrophe and jobs lost on mass because of technology with a deep routed ideology that’s so slow to change it will cause ruin. I’m not a nutty lefty but if you just slightly pay attention to what’s going on the facts are crystal clear to much money held by so few people blinded by greed= total disaster.

[bo90] 18/3/2020 11:08

6 april new isa allowance, might as well hold out and buy then

[bo90] 18/3/2020 11:07

sure but when the gov instruct everyone to stay at home, life stops

[tfergi] 18/3/2020 10:10

I have been saying the same. Lockdown and isolate just the old and high risk and let the rest get on with it

[spcecks] 18/3/2020 10:09

I added this morning don't think the dividend will be cut.

[sr2day] 18/3/2020 10:01

220 pence is the time to buy or to top up if dividends are not cancelled.goes ex div on 9/4/20. two weeks is a long time to wait and a lot can happen during.

[uppompeii] 18/3/2020 09:52

I cant disagree. This is what happened in the past. There could in fact be more mortality than the virus will ever cause due to the impact of the economic crash.If the issue is the NHS being overwhelmed, well surely the answer was to pump the billions (that are now lost) into the health service to prepare for future events? The cost surely would be less than the impact we are yet to see.But it wont happen till an emergency catches Govts off guard.Certainly the economic drag of this will be felt for a long time.How many are like me, mid 50s, pension fund reduced by a quarter? That's billions that now wont be spent by 1000s of us over many years.

[creme de menthe] 18/3/2020 09:37

Politicians around the globe are instigating the panic and the unwritten global policy to preserve life at whatever the cost is misguided. This crisis may end up costing ten or twenty trillion dollars, maybe more in order to keep the aged alive.

Could governments have just issued advice for the retired to isolate and let everybody else continue as normal, there would be a small mortality rate but bring up the herd immunity quickly?

Surely it is governments job to protect the majority as best they can.

[eurofox] 18/3/2020 09:13

Exactly the point I have been making. Also, some may be unaware but at the close of market yesterday there was a substantial corporate bond sell-off (even gilts were surprisingly affected with some falls of about 25% all of a sudden among the less liquid bonds.

I did have another thought about this. Normally brokers and dealing banks act as buffers in the market place to provide liquidity in the market especially for more illiquid bonds. Because they are now more afraid of their own capital reserves, banks will want a larger premium, through much lower bid prices for those assets.

In other words, the dealer functions are no longer working properly which is why the down side of the markets is moving much faster than the upside. If central bank help is needed anywhere, it is to support dealers and banks with the buffer function, and perhaps with overnight repo operations.

[wba1] 18/3/2020 09:07

pOpper; Admiral are much more heavily car insurance than Aviva (they have no investment and life arms, minimal business insurance and do not do pensions. Almost all is motor and some domestic property). Motor insurance is a legal requirement if you have a car (whether or not you use it)so sales are guaranteed. Claims experience will benefit due to less traffic on the road. And Admiral makes most of its profit from the sale of add ons which are inertia sold on renewals. And it lays off most of the insurance risk including large PI claims to Munich Re.

So Admiral are pretty insulated, but Aviva are much the better bet for recovery. Admiral are already fully valued.

[uppompeii] 18/3/2020 08:29

Isnt it option expiry date, triple witching, on Friday?

[tfergi] 18/3/2020 08:23

Yea a lot caught out yesterday thinking the DOW rise and government packages would lift the market.I just can't help thinking that everyone thinking sub 5000 FTSE is a bargain will be shocked at how low the bottom ends up being.

[p0pper] 18/3/2020 08:18

hxxps://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/China-says-Japan-developed-drug-Avigan-works-against-coronavirus

[eurofox] 18/3/2020 07:31

So yet again those that went long on margin yesterday will be taken out on their stop losses today - do they ever learn?