Avation Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 01/11/2018 14:41

Thanks.

Great interview.

Very bullish.

Mentions a great first half and hints strongly at hidden value in balance sheet.

[gold panda] 01/11/2018 14:11

Interview with Wolanski

[gold panda] 23/10/2018 08:33

Thanks, I've read it already :) Helped me choose in which companies to invest

[carcosa] 21/10/2018 09:31

gp, OTOH Avatin has twice the dividend growth ;-)

Here is a year+ old document detailing numerous aircraft leasing companies:

hxxps://www.aviaam.com/upload/Leasing-Top-50-2017.pdf

For a quick comparison search/find "Avation" to see how they compared to the competition within the various charts.

The lack of comparative investor related research and other aircraft leasing companies listed on the LSE may prevent investors realising just how small Avation is in the industry; Something that has both its pros and cons.

The 'take-away for me is that Avation are obtaining average to good returns without having to take enormous financial risks. However cost of debt is high for Aircastle, Avation, FLY and AWAS. I can readily understand why that is so for Avation given its size but perhaps that unsecured debt burden for Aircastle is worthy of more research if anyone was to consider investing in them.

Overall each company has to be taken on its merits, fleet size, maturity, credit rating, markets, backers (e.g. China!) etc. With few exceptions those listed on various stock exchanges are all worthy of consideration... provided they remember what happened to Guinness Peat Aviation...

[gold panda] 21/10/2018 07:05

Well, one of the reasons is that Aircastle have the largest dividend yield in the industry - 5.49% at the moment

[carcosa] 20/10/2018 07:38

If, on the other hand you value NTAV growth then Avation beats Aircastle (and practically all other aircraft leasing companies) on that metric. Accordingly the argument would be Avation should be trading well above book value.



This difference in market cap is: Avation $215m v AirCastle $1594m

[gold panda] 18/10/2018 15:59

Close to book, you can buy Aircastle for example at a much deeper discount

[gold panda] 18/10/2018 15:56

I was thinking of selling around 270

[roman2325] 18/10/2018 10:18

I meant in decent size...if you are an institutional buyer looking to build a position you will have to drive the price up until you find a seller, and clearly there aren't any at 260p (yet) hence the recent run up 20 pence

[ayl30] 17/10/2018 14:34

I have been buying today, haven't found any problem getting them

[roman2325] 17/10/2018 14:31

very little stock around, no one selling at these levels

[roman2325] 15/10/2018 15:10

Great form in this today, looks like the Buyers still there

[gold panda] 09/10/2018 10:07

Poised for take-off


Avation has just agreed the conditional sale of one of its eight Airbus A321-200 aircraft to an Asian buyer at its current market value, representing a significant premium to the carrying value of the asset. We will have to wait for the deal to go through for the finer details to emerge, but on the basis that Avation’s A321-200 is just 23-months old and has a book value of $48.7m (£37.5m), and current market rates are around $53m, then it’s fair to say that the profit on the sale will be significant in relation to the pre-tax profit of $18.9m the company reported from its leasing activities in the 2017-18 financial year. It will also boost Avation’s last reported net asset value (NAV) of $228m, or 280p a share at current exchange rates.

[carcosa] 05/10/2018 13:27

Specifically it's Vietjet Regn:VN-685 (MSN 7427). Original deal price was $51.36m add back depreciation of $3,86m that leaves $47.5m Theoretical profit $2.5m but assume there will be some finance charges associated with it so $2.0m profit (as you say) seems about right.

I have no idea who the buyer is though. Could be the airline but seems unlikely as they have only recently done their IPO so would possibly be watching cash very carefully. Maybe one of the numerous Chinese leasing companies or is it quid pro quo for the A330 acquisition? Anyway... not important to investors.

I calculate Avation now has sufficient cash in hand to acquire a further 3 A320's in addition to their existing known commitments. However I suspect the EBIT interest cover covenant will dictate aircraft procurement scheduling.

[gold panda] 05/10/2018 08:57

"One interesting point he made was that they are going to sell one of there 8 mid size planes this year and that it will be sold for a decent junk (think it was $50M) more than its book value."

If they were talking about one of the A321-200s like the recently announced one and this is the same aircraft classified as held for sale in the annual report, I'm surprised they're selling it for $50m

hxxps://newsroom.aviator.aero/content/images/2017/10/Screen-Shot-2017-10-04-at-11.35.11.png

Then again if we assume the that profit from the sale is around $2m and they have 8 of these and revalue them, this is a profit of $16m

[fastbuck] 04/10/2018 09:04

Thanks Harrogate, that explains the slight drop at the open.

[harrogate] 04/10/2018 08:05

Yes I saw those trades - not sure what it means.
Ex dividend today for around 5.50p

[fastbuck] 03/10/2018 21:23

As we hit new highs I note the large trades coming through in recent days:

25 SEP 2 x 100,000 at 250p
26 SEP 2 x 100,000 at 250p
27 SEP 2 x 100,000 at
28 SEP 2 x 100,000 at
01 OCT 1 x 51,800 at 250p
02 OCT 2 x x 50,000 at 250p
03 OCT 2 x 50,000 & 2 x 100,000 at 255p

[harrogate] 03/10/2018 10:46

AVAP now at an ATH which is great. Selling planes does make it difficult to forecast the numbers but as long as above book and they use the proceeds then hard to argue. The reduction in leasing revenue from the Airbus will be large.
They seem to be doing what they said they would do and with borrowing costs mainly at fixed rates I can see this continuing to climb along with the NAV - although the discount based on June 17 NAV is now down to 10% so it might need the next set of results to keep us moving in line - a 10% discount to the next NAV would put the price at around £2.75 I think. A strong hold for me

[catsick] 03/10/2018 09:44

Sounds like a decent profit is being booked on the sale of this jet, I guess we can say the book values are conservative from this and we are trading well below book value too ....

[quepassa] 01/10/2018 12:13

weird.

time for me to move on to more serious threads.

adios

[russman] 01/10/2018 11:44

I am a black swan.
Waiting for CLA Annual Report.

[quepassa] 01/10/2018 11:07

is this a thread for Avation or something else?

[catsick] 01/10/2018 10:51

Sorry that reply was for russman not the spam from sharesoc posting links that require you to register to see which is total spam in my view

[catsick] 01/10/2018 10:49

The track record on cla was nice, I made a decent profit when they delisted and bid the shares back, then rolled the position into avap which has done very well ... I dont know why you chose to stay as a minority holder in a delisted company but I guess you have your own personal reasons for that but don't let the cognitive dissonance of avap doing well cause you too much pain....