Avation Share Discussion Threads

[sharesoc] 28/3/2019 12:47

Avation present at our London growth company seminar on the 10th April which may be of interest to current shareholders and potential investors

[quepassa] 28/3/2019 11:59

Avation have a full legal charge over any aircraft they lease and they can repossess aircraft in the event of default of lease obligations which -in my view- would be highly unlikely in this case.

[harrogate] 28/3/2019 11:35

Thanks for the info. Yes we are going to start 2020 with a good run rate and some momentum. Interest rates softening too.

[carcosa] 28/3/2019 11:29

I worked with Garuda many years ago. The majority shareholder is the Indonesian government. In the grand scheme of things, financially, they are very sound. Also rather astute at business given the inefficiencies inherent in that part of the world. Hence getting out of the B737MAX orders for a better deal down the line.

3 more ATR's and 3 more A220's to be delivered before end June. Although I suspect one of those ATR's maay slip into next year...

[harrogate] 28/3/2019 10:02

They seem to be pretty active at the moment and putting things in place to ensure the next leg up on net asset value. Good stuff. Not sure about Garuda though. Didn't they have some issues a while back?

[davidosh] 19/3/2019 09:26

Just to let you all know that Avation will be presenting at the Mello2019 event on Thursday 16th May and Friday 17th May. They will also have a stand at the event so available for Q&A with the delegates.



They will almost certainly be doing three presentations during the event so a great opportunity to meet the company.

More info and tickets here... If you use the code ADVFN30 you will be able to receive a 30% discount off the ticket price

[carcosa] 13/3/2019 08:28

"Im sure the leasing companies holding 737s have a huge headache on their hands ..."

Why?

[catsick] 13/3/2019 08:23

Im sure the leasing companies holding 737s have a huge headache on their hands ...

[dr know] 12/3/2019 17:41

Phew, there are no Boeing 737s of any type in Avation's fleet.

Aircraft Type 31 December
2018
Boeing 777-300ER 1
Airbus A330-300 1
Airbus A321-200 7
Airbus A320-200 3
Airbus A220-300 2
Fokker 100 5
ATR 72-600 16
ATR 72-500 6
------------
Total 41

[catsick] 12/3/2019 13:18

Ohhh Russman if you had just taken the small profits on the cla takeover and rolled it into avap you would be laughing now now like the rest of us ....On another note all these grounded 737s is probably going to cause an uptick in the prices of good old reliable a321s ....

[russman] 12/3/2019 12:30

CLA - there may be a resolution from a minority shareholder.
For a voluntary liquidation.
Who cares; pay up and move on.

[quepassa] 11/3/2019 11:45

thank you for helpful clarification.

agreed. nice'n'steady in all respects!

regards,

QP

[from8to800] 11/3/2019 11:21

Just my poor description for what looks like a low volatily chart. No massive spikes or spread either way.A good looking chart with a history of steady growth (supported by some strong fundamentals as shown by the financial report shared last month).

[quepassa] 11/3/2019 10:05

prey, what do you mean by - "tidy" behaviours ?

[from8to800] 11/3/2019 09:56

Just bought in. A bit extended for my taste but the signs are there and the "tidy" behaviours offers some reassurance.Onwards and upwards.

[sogoesit] 11/3/2019 08:51

Directors' warrants issued at 294.5p strike... a good sign.

[sharesoc] 04/3/2019 15:42

Avation's presentation from our recent Manchester seminar is available in our full member exclusive area here:

[russman] 02/3/2019 11:20

I draw your attention to Interim Related Party Consulting Fee 477k.
CLA will be finished soon.....

[goodgrief] 01/3/2019 13:49

Good presentation by your man at Proactive Investors last night; very persuasive investment case.

[harrogate] 22/2/2019 11:15

Buffett himself would be proud of my inertia based investment strategy!

[buffetteer] 22/2/2019 10:45

20x Superb performance Harrogate well done indeed

[quepassa] 22/2/2019 10:17

Very steady growth.

Still much room to grow. Highly credible business model.

Increasing reputation and well-placed particularly in the massive growth markets in the Far East.

As they grow, Avation should be able to continue pushing down their funding costs and increase their margins.

[harrogate] 22/2/2019 10:08

Thanks Davydoo - in fact a 20 bagger from my first buy at 14p! I should buy more shares on a hunch without knowing what they do!! Think they are pretty much up with events now at or slightly above NAV for the first time in a long while

[davydoo] 22/2/2019 09:50

I've long since sold out of here

But congrats to any long term holders from the PLUS days (Harrogate?) I think that's now a ten bagger from the prices I was paying at the time

[sogoesit] 21/2/2019 18:27

Simon Thompson in Chronic Investor today:
"Avation Flying High
Aircraft leasing company Avation (AVAP:288p) has delivered the bumper set of half year results I had anticipated when I suggested buying the shares a couple of months ago ('Avation’s hidden value', 10 December 2018).

More importantly, investors have been warming to the investment case which is why the shares, at 288p, are now trading at an all-time high and have posted a total return of 92 per cent since I first advised buying at 159p ('Get on board for blue-sky gains', 11 September 2014). However, they are still only priced in line with a conservative looking net asset value, so it’s realistic to expect the ascent to continue given the hidden value in the company's balance sheet which is being realised.

In the six months to end December 2018, Avation almost doubled its pre-tax profits and EPS to $14.2m and 21.6¢, respectively, a result that included a $5.2m gain on the $52.9m disposal of one of its narrowbody Airbus A321-200 aircraft. The company owns a further seven Airbus A321-200s, and the narrowbody segment accounts for 43 per cent of the $1.02bn carrying value of Avation’s total fleet, the implication being that there could be around $50m (£38.5m) of hidden value in the balance sheet if you mark the A321-200 aircrafts to their open market value. That’s not an insignificant sum in relation to Avation’s market capitalisation of £185m.

The other major points worth noting are that Avation continues to diversify its lessor base and reduce customer concentration to mitigate risk – it now has 14 customers operating in 11 countries; visibility of cash flow continues to improve – contracted revenue of $837m covers Avation’s net borrowings (that are secured on 32 of the 41 aircraft in the fleet); and the aircraft leasing company is maintaining a young fleet (average age of 3.6 years) with a stable average remaining lease length of 7.5 years in order to optimise future cash flows.

This strategy appeals greatly to bond investors, which is why Avation reduced its weighted average cost of debt from 5 to 4.9 per cent in the second half of last year, and had no problem tapping the bond markets to expand the fleet. In fact, the company plans to take delivery of four Airbus A220-300s (12-year operating leases have already been signed with AirBaltic) and three ATR 72-600 turboprop aircraft by the June 2019 financial year end, has ordered a further eight ATR 72-600 aircraft for delivery by 2022, and has options on a further 25 of these turboprop aircraft. These options are held on the balance sheet at nil cost, highlighting additional hidden value. I maintain my view that each option could be worth north of £1m on the open market given their scarcity value – ATR only manufactures 85 planes a year and demand from China, India and Iran is tightening the the regional aviation market for these fuel-efficient aircraft.

Post results, analyst John Cummins at WH Ireland upgraded his full-year pre-tax profit estimate by $1.5m to $23.2m, up from $18.9m in 2018, to produce EPS of 31.7¢ (24.4p). Having paid an annual dividend of 7.25¢ a share (5.5p) in October 2018, the board has just declared an interim of 2¢ (1.5p) a share, so shareholders can realistically expect another decent dividend hike for the full year. Buy."