Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[jeffian] 30/7/2011 16:28

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong GE report (23/7/11?) but I can't see any 2012 estimates. The Yahoo estimates based on the average of 7 analysts forecast 2012 eps of -2.68p/share (although that is based on a range where the lowest estimate is -35.60p and the highest +8.01p, so someone's going to to be wrong!) but if they're right, the market's not going to see that for a couple of years (trading updates excepted).

[mammon] 30/7/2011 16:25

Apparently the migration was successfully completed a month ago.

"100% of the installations on old satellite capacity were transferred to HYLAS 1 by the end of June.

Thank you to all of Avanti's partners in Europe for helping with this very fast and successful migration."



It's buried in their web-site; just whoever is managing their public communications decided it was not worth the effort to get it out there...

[blackberrydrop] 30/7/2011 15:42

Yes, Jeffian and Growth Equity has next year i.e 2011/12 (the financial year which has just started and ends on 30 June 2012) as earning positive, which is certainly not 2 years away.

[jeffian] 30/7/2011 15:11

BD,

EBITDA isn't profit (or anything like it)! Even Growth Equity has them pencilled in for a loss in 2010/11 and Yahoo gives the average expectations of 7 analysts as
-13.87p/share.

I'm not knocking it - I've held since before the launch - but the market's being particularly hard at the moment on companies promising earnings in the future and in this case they're not expected for 2 years so AVN's "in line with market expectations" comment was unlikely to set the world on fire. What I would hope for when the results come out is some guidance on sales figures. As long as we are on target to achieve the potentially impressive future sales, then the market might take some notice.

[backmarker] 30/7/2011 14:49

it would be nice if we got a trading update anytime soon. I'd like to know how well the migration went and how quickly they are getting the contracted customers online.

looking back through the RNSs doesn't indicate AVN is particularly communicative other than about contract wins. a pity, as waiting until Oct for an update is a bit annoying.

[blackberrydrop] 30/7/2011 14:27

Jeffian - I think you'll find the market expects them to be turning a profit next year. Growth Equity has EBITDA profit of £10.8m.

[divinausa1] 30/7/2011 03:56

connection problem

[divinausa1] 30/7/2011 01:55

yorgi - 29 Jul'11 - 16:27 - 6356 of 6359

Guess that's very true Jeffian......hence keeping my powder dry for the moment.
============

directors certainly did not keep their powder dry, if/when US sort out the debt ceiling these will spike up and you wont get them at these prices again... imo

[divinausa1] 30/7/2011 01:55

yorgi - 29 Jul'11 - 16:27 - 6356 of 6359

Guess that's very true Jeffian......hence keeping my powder dry for the moment.
============

directors certainly did not keep their powder dry, if/when US sort out the debt ceiling these will spike up and you wont get them at these prices again... imo

[divinausa1] 30/7/2011 01:55

yorgi - 29 Jul'11 - 16:27 - 6356 of 6359

Guess that's very true Jeffian......hence keeping my powder dry for the moment.
============

directors certainly did not keep their powder dry, if/when US sort out the debt ceiling these will spike up and you wont get them at these prices again... imo

[divinausa1] 30/7/2011 01:54

yorgi - 29 Jul'11 - 16:27 - 6356 of 6359

Guess that's very true Jeffian......hence keeping my powder dry for the moment.
============

directors certainly did not keep their powder dry, if/when US sort out the debt ceiling these will spike up and you wont get them at these prices again... imo

[divinausa1] 30/7/2011 01:54

yorgi - 29 Jul'11 - 16:27 - 6356 of 6359

Guess that's very true Jeffian......hence keeping my powder dry for the moment.
============

directors certainly did not keep their powder dry, if/when US sort out the debt ceiling these will spike up and you wont get them at these prices again... imo

[22298] 29/7/2011 23:05

well he would, wouldn't he when he had topped up at £3.90 he,s lost a small fortune at todays price ;~}

[backmarker] 29/7/2011 20:15

well he would, wouldn't he ;~}

[yorgi] 29/7/2011 18:06

TW has reiterated "strong buy" again today.

[yorgi] 29/7/2011 16:27

Guess that's very true Jeffian......hence keeping my powder dry for the moment.

[jeffian] 29/7/2011 16:24

With the market worrying about macro-economic issues such as potential $ and € defaults, it's hard to know where the bottom is. The trouble is that the fundamentals make this a "jam tomorrow" stock which the markets are likely to hammer when they're in gloomy mode and froth up when they're upbeat. Saying "The company expects that the results will be in line with market expectations" doesn't get the juices flowing when the market expects them to make a stonking (around 14p/share) loss this year and a smaller loss next year.

[yorgi] 29/7/2011 16:11

I've been tempted to add some more.....but wonder if the market could go lower and take AVN with it.......but I do have a large holding of them anyway...but I will have some funds in place on Tuesday so I may add then if we are still around this level.

[colva] 29/7/2011 16:06

Ah ok - yes most stocks seem to have headed in the same direction over the last few months . I'd like to think that AVN is close to the bottom but at the moment i'm not putting any money on it.

[jeffian] 29/7/2011 15:29

colva,
It's a comparison chart showing AVN movement relative to ISAT, so not actual prices. Was just trying to show that recent price weakness was not specific to AVN.

[colva] 29/7/2011 14:36

jeffian,

Is it my eyesight or are the values on the chart out of sync .

[blackberrydrop] 29/7/2011 09:34

Johnnyno1 - In my experience, few private companies do! lol

[jonnyno1] 29/7/2011 09:33

i agree blackberry, three months is pretty good, few plc's do better than that.

[blackberrydrop] 29/7/2011 09:29

Last year they posted their accounts at the end of Nov after the launch of Hylas 1. In the previous three years they had them out in the first week of October.

Three months after the end of the year is pretty fast to produce annual audited results in my opinion.