Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[phillis] 12/2/2013 14:58

who or what is ZAK please

[ttnyw] 12/2/2013 14:25

jojaken post 11739

"Does anyone infact know what SC's last known status on his shorts was"

I think the status is now ------ "with brown stripes!!"

Lol

[anusol] 12/2/2013 14:22

Yorgi - might time to update the BB header info.... bit old now

[broadwood] 12/2/2013 13:55

Shares of satellite operator Avanti Communications soared after it said while losses for the half year widened, it expects to become cash flow positive in the second half of the year.

Loss before taxation swelled to £15.94m for the six months ended December 31st 2012 compared to a loss of £6.6m before. Revenue for the period rose to £8.6m from £5.1m.

Avanti said sales momentum was growing with its second satellite HYLAS 2 fully operational and attracting major telecom customers.

The group has over £40m of revenue already in backlog for the year to June 2014.
The backlog at December 31st of firm orders was £290m.

Cash and cash equivalents at year-end stood at £50.7m from £25.9m previously.

Chairman John Brackenbury commented: "Avanti has enough business in backlog and pipeline to expect to achieve its targets, and pleasingly we have over £40m of revenue already in backlog for the year to June 2014 with another 18 months of selling still to go, so visibility of future performance is strengthening."

"Sales momentum continues to build very well. We operate in rapidly developing markets in Africa and the Middle East which are showing very strong demand for our market-beating services, with several HYLAS 2 beams already fully sold."

"Technical milestones are now behind us and our forward visibility continues to improve. 2013 should show commercial transformation," it added

[waterloo01] 12/2/2013 13:11

See post above 11749 with Cenkos note (by 2016)

[2vdm] 12/2/2013 13:01

waterloo....err 100p ?

[yorgi] 12/2/2013 12:47

At present it would appear he got it wrong last Friday Jonny ! However yes he was right previously.

[jonnyno1] 12/2/2013 12:39

Waterloo he hardly got it wrong , I think he sold them all the way down from 7 quid! He doesn't care about the truth just the bet.

[yorgi] 12/2/2013 12:22

I will be very surprised if we see that Waterloo.

[waterloo01] 12/2/2013 12:21

Nice broker comments. Particularly liked the 'EPS could reach north of 100p". Now that would be juicy.

Come on Simon, admit it you called this one wrong.

[jonnyno1] 12/2/2013 12:09

Good stuff BTK.

[billytkid2] 12/2/2013 12:01

Jeffries:

Revenues reached £8.6m in 1H FY13, up from £7.3m/£5.1m in 2H/1H FY12.
All pre-launch HYLAS-2 customers activated and invoiced from mid-Jan. This
should drive material revenue uplift in 2H. Mgmt outlook unchanged. Avanti
expects to turn operating cash flow positive in 2H.
Revenues. 1H FY13 revenues of £8.6m, up from £7.3m in 2H FY12 and £5.1m in 1H FY12.
We understand from management that there are no changes in accounting treatment at this
set of results. The press release does not separately identify how much revenue was derived
from sales of capacity vs. terminal sales and other items, but there is no reason to believe
that terminal sales are materially different from the recent run-rate (£1.8m in FY12).
Management says that invoicing of HYLAS-2 customers got fully underway in
January. HYLAS-2 entered commercial service last Sept after ground control systems had
been tested. After Sept, the company embarked on a programme of training, installing and
activating the service with customers. Completion of this programme in January has enabled
the service to be fully operational since then, with all customers invoiced. We understand
that only a small number of customers had their deployments completed - and hence were
being invoiced - by the end of 1H FY13. Accordingly, we understand that the revenue impact
of HYLAS-2 on 1H FY13 revenues was relatively minor and would expect HYLAS-2 to drive a
material pick-up in revenues from Jan. In the results announcement, Avanti comments that
2013 should show commercial transformation. An important aspect of that transformation,
in our view, is the start of monetising HYLAS-2 and that should become significant from
January. Avanti comments that the steerable beam on HYLAS-2 was re-positioned over Libya
during 1H FY13 and that, within two months of this, more than half its capacity has been
sold. We understand that the steerable beam started generating revenues in January.
Confident outlook. Avanti states that it has enough backlog and pipeline to expect to
achieve its targets. This suggests that the Board has reviewed its forecasts and sees no reason
to amend them in the light of 1H results and 2H momentum. Our reading of this is that
Avanti therefore remains confident of achieving around £30m in revenues for FY13. For
FY14, Avanti comments in the results announcement it already has over £40m of revenue
already in the backlog (contractually committed in respect of size and timing). Avanti states
that some customers -- especially in Northern Europe, North Africa and the Middle East --
have accelerated their purchase of capacity of their contractual commitments. Avanti reports
'growing acceptance' in what it describes as the 'mainstream telecoms industry'. Five large
multinational TMT companies signed contracts with Avanti during the period.
Backlog update. Avanti reports that the backlog reached £290m at the end of Dec,
against £268m end-Sept, £246m end-June and £181m end-Dec 2011. We estimate that gross
additions to backlog in the 12 months to 31 Dec 2012 were c.£123m (being the net £109m in
the backlog balance plus £16m total revs less a £2m deduction as our estimate for terminal
sales). Factoring in the strengthening of GBP against USD and EUR, we believe that Avanti
achieved its target of £11m/month gross additions to backlog for the 12-month period.
Spectrum registration for HYLAS-2 now completed. At the full year FY12 results in
October, Avanti confirmed that the HYLAS 1 orbital filings at 33.5 degrees west were finalised
in the ITU Master Register, and Avanti's "bringing into use" of its filings at 31 degrees east
(HYLAS-2) were accepted by the ITU and therefore progressing towards finalisation. It has
now confirmed in this morning's interim results release that the ITU, during the period, has
accepted Avanti's "rights to a UK satellite filing with Ka-band at 31 degrees East", in doing
so, "definitively rejecting a challenge made by a competitor". This removes operational
uncertainty from Avanti's strategy for monetising HYLAS-2.

[hpcg] 12/2/2013 11:32

I think these are in line with expectations - spent 30 mins first thing but not fully digested yet. However we do have some good data points for the next announcement:

- Second half being cash flow positive; measurable target.
- 40M June 2013-2014 revenue line. I need to work on targets for prognosis come next interim management statement and pre-close in July. Gut feel is that 60M prognosis by July would be top end (good) and 46M low end (not so good).

I don't think shorts will be burnt in the near term but neither does it look to be the right side of the trade. I think we'll be bouncing around the 300 level come the next interim (presumably sometime in April/May?). How fast this moves up will depend on sentiment, signs of strong momentum in the business, and how many out years investors as a whole will take account of.

[garymott] 12/2/2013 11:31

Simon Cawkwell's previous short was at 295p on 10/10/12 (the day that final results to June 2012 were released).

See his posts 10864 and 10910.

His target was "200p in the not too distant future".

[phillis] 12/2/2013 11:25

so what
cash flow positive in current 6 month period
that is is the key indicator

[jojaken] 12/2/2013 11:21

Thanks Yorgi

NOthing in the results about Filiago. The only ref to Italy specifically was "Our service providers have also had success in winning government funded broadband projects in the UK and Italy" So will omit a bit opaque.

But if that what he is basing his short on, rather risky I would say.

[yorgi] 12/2/2013 11:16

Last Friday Jojaken :

"I also shorted Avanti (AVN) at 250p. My reason is that it has been pointed out to me that its Filiago subsidiary (which you may recall was a failure on a stand alone basis and therefore taken under Avanti's wing out of desperation) is now giving its services and kit away for nowt or well over twenty months worth of sales through a waived selling price of the order of E500 for hardware and E99 for set-up costs. It's one thing to pile it high and sell it cheap but it is quite another to pile it high and sell it for nothing. I read somewhere that results are due next Tuesday. No doubt, they will be upbeat. They always are."

[yorgi] 12/2/2013 11:13

i'll get it for you in just a minute Jojaken.