Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[anusol] 19/2/2013 09:06

Who's SK? (sorry, poor sarcasm before anyone might reply)
Missed an opp to add below 310p, but it was sooo brief

[sg31] 19/2/2013 08:27

I think it's about time we stopped worrying about SK. His days of influencing the share price are coming to an end. Once this becomes cash flow positive he will be old news.

[2vdm] 19/2/2013 08:20

Good points from both of you and I look forward to your thoughts Gary when you have time to post them. Thanks. 2vdM

[count chris] 18/2/2013 22:45

Two things about SK. Having been on t1ps for a few months I reckon the lists of shorts and longs are more likely lists of current targets rather than open positions so an inclusion on the list doesn't necessarily mean SK has a current position. Secondly the thing he said which did concern me was the vendor financing issue which he hinted (IMO) was a scandle waiting to be discovered but he didn't mention this at all in his last update which I hope means it has come to nothing. I never dismiss SK or anyone who is so much richer than me but we are right to be mindfull of where his incentives are.

[garymott] 18/2/2013 16:37

That may be so 2vdm. But I think it is important to show the folly of SC's "smells" and "guesswork" as he freely admits to, to drive the fear for his personal gain, by responding with reason and fact. By showing he is wrong time and time again is the only way we can respond to what I and many others believe is the deliberate, biased, misinformation he propogates.

Those that took notice of him and shorted at 250p just before the Interim Results are currently sitting on big losses if they didn't close quickly. It's all about making money for himself, not his followers, and he doesn't care who else loses.

I'm actually hoping for a significant pull-back now to give me an opportunity to buy more as I have just realised the positive consequences of two statements which I didn't appreciate before. I'm too busy now but will share my reasoning here in the next day or two :-)

[pojscott] 18/2/2013 16:36

S/P going down again ???

[jonnib] 18/2/2013 11:27

nice one gary

[garymott] 18/2/2013 11:04

Let's have a brief review of EK's previous forecasts.

Referring to my post 10927 on 10/10/12 (which refers to earlier posts from me and EK):-

EK believed H1 would produce peak revenues of £33m per annum and that H1 plus H2 combined would produce annual revenues when full in the range £42m - £60m.

The Chairman in the Interim Results last Tuesday (12/02/13) stated:-

"Avanti has enough business in backlog and pipeline to expect to achieve its targets, and pleasingly we have over £40 million of revenue already in backlog for the year to June 2014 with another 18 months of selling still to go, so visibility of future performance is strengthening.

Sales momentum for HYLAS 1 and 2 continues to build very well with a Backlog of firm committed orders of £290 million giving us confidence that we will sell out our satellites in the timescales contemplated.

With the growth of many of our customers business accelerating beyond their initial plans, and the success with a number of large multinational companies choosing Avanti for its quality of service and coverage, shareholders can have growing confidence that this is a business which is set to deliver on its ambitions."

H1 is expected to be full in about a year from now (3 years from the start of commercial services). H2 is forecast to be full 4 years from the start of commerical services (originally 5 years but reduced to 4 based on greater than forecast demand) which will be late 2016.

It's too early to be sure but it looks to me like the combined peak revenues from H1 and H2 is going to be much higher than the £42m - £60m forcast by EK when he was trying to rubbish the company.

Now referring to my post 11029 on 12/10/12, which refers to Simon's post 10910 on 10/10/12 'from people who know about AVN'.

This post states '....Where is the big mobile backhaul contract they were promising was imminent a year ago? We can't really understand how the backlog can be so large and revenue guidance so weak....'

Last Tuesday, the Chairman stated:-

"The HYLAS 1 network performed with 99.987% reliability in 2012. This is largely a factor of the resilience built into the ground network which is unique amongst competitors. In Europe, Avanti had success in content distribution both for digital cinema and outside broadcasting for major international media companies. We launched backhaul services for two wireless service providers, the first is for one of the largest wi-fi network operators and the second is the World's first Ka band backhaul network for a 3G/4Gmobile operator. These are powerful illustrations of our capabilities that will support us in winning more business in these markets."

So Simon's people 'who know about AVN' have now been proved WRONG on the mobile backhaul issue!

As for 'weak revenue guidance', I repeat the Chairman's comment above:-

"Avanti has enough business in backlog and pipeline to expect to achieve its targets, and pleasingly we have over £40 million of revenue already in backlog for the year to June 2014 with another 18 months of selling still to go, so visibility of future performance is strengthening."

I'll review Simon's forecasts again later in the year.

[qs9] 18/2/2013 09:36

Nice start to day, hopefully more to come

[2350220] 18/2/2013 09:19

I've heard that Evil Kinevil is singing with the Kings of Leon, 'My Shorts Are On Fire'.

Have a nice Monday all,
John

[sg31] 17/2/2013 18:54

As I said before I don't want a TO and I don't expect one. That said it would be a perfect time for someone to try. Sats up and working.tech pretty much proven, everything ready to snowball but price still depressed. there might never be a better time.
Won't happen. I think Williams has too much support from the institutions to let anyone get away with a cheeky bid.
I reckon another 5-7 years and I should get a nice income stream from the divies just in time for a happy retirement

[sg31] 17/2/2013 17:57

Johny, never an argument. Neither of us won or lost. No need to apologise.

[michaelmouse] 17/2/2013 16:47

My comments on the interims plus paragraph from the FT weekend.

Michael.

[dozey1] 17/2/2013 14:57

jojaken, yes that makes good sense, though I wonder if there are any European competition authorities who wouldn't like it. Anyway, I too have become a firm holder... until the next bout of news anyhow.

[jojaken] 17/2/2013 08:34

If you were looking for a company that would have good synergies with Avanti, and has the economic clout to buy Avanti, you don't have to look any further than their French rival Eutelsat, which has a market cap of over 5bn Euros. Moreover, Eutelsat are also one of the few other movers into Ka band. Now with Avanti's market cap arguably below the cost of replacing assets, (particularly as their rights to their satellites' orbital locations is substantially unrecognised), the question should really be, why didn't they bid for Avanti in the dark days when the shorters had the upper hand?

All IMHO of course and in part why I am a firm long term holder!

[jonnyno1] 17/2/2013 07:49

man i've been wrong all weekend, losing arguments left right and centre, apologies sg31, my brain cells ARE totally ravaged alcohol.

j.

[sg31] 16/2/2013 20:50

It looks like I do have a few brain cells left that aren't totally ravaged by the alcohol.

[garymott] 16/2/2013 20:33

Jonnyno1, sg31 was right:-10 February 2009The Board of Avanti notes the recent movement in its share price and confirms that it has received an unsolicited preliminary approach regarding a possible offer for the Company. The Board of Avanti has rejected this approach. The Board of Avanti believes that the Company has excellent prospects as an independent group.

[anusol] 16/2/2013 18:43

Talk about history - I sold out of AVN the first time at around 330p. That was 4 or 5 years ago just after they split from Avanti Screenmedia. I was really annoyed that they stole the cash into the Satellite business and as good as forced the screen media business into bankruptcy within a year.
However I'm close to forgiving them now, as clearly it was a completely sound move to separate the two businesses. So I missed the first roller coaster up to £7 but hoping to catch the second peak this time round :-)

[sg31] 16/2/2013 16:10

It happened I just can't remember the timing

[jonnyno1] 16/2/2013 14:40

Don't remembwr that at all sg31.

[sg31] 16/2/2013 11:43

AVN did have an approach from someone before H1 went up if I remember correctly. I don't think the ID of the company was ever disclosed and it was turned down pretty sharpish.
Any offer would need to be way above current price to stand a chance. Personally I don't think it is likely to happen anytime soon.I want this to have a few years to mature before I think of an exit.