Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[jojaken] 12/2/2013 11:12

Not a subscriber to T1PS so can't read his diary. Unfortunately/fortunately? Did he ever give any idea of the quantities or whether he last increased or decreased the size of his shorts?

TIA

[divinausa1] 12/2/2013 11:04

Cammy3 12 Feb'13 - 10:42 - 11737 of 11740 0 0

I think we will see a lot more Director buys today/tomorrow
-----------------------

undervalued will see this shoot thru £3 in short order...

[yorgi] 12/2/2013 10:57

Only last week (pretty sure it was last week) he announced he was shorting at 250p (I think that was the figure). you could check on T1ps site on his diary

[jojaken] 12/2/2013 10:53

Does anyone infact know what SC's last known status on his shorts was
?

[yorgi] 12/2/2013 10:50

One thing I doubt we will see and that is SC admitting he is wrong or announcing he has closed his short.

[cammy3] 12/2/2013 10:42

I think we will see a lot more Director buys today/tomorrow

[anusol] 12/2/2013 10:39

well the Director was happy paying 277p - so anything below that looks a steal at the moment

[diabhal] 12/2/2013 10:37

Good to see the director buy. Are we on for a short squeeze and a rapid pop upwards?

[cammy3] 12/2/2013 10:23

Director buying now Too.

[jonnyno1] 12/2/2013 09:37

Although no real surprises here the company is further derisking with every passing day. A rising share price will meet quite a bit of stale bull resistance though. J.

[anusol] 12/2/2013 09:36

Jeffian - the current interims include £38m cash outflow for capital purchases. Im guessing this will be drastically reduced as the news states that current expenditure on HYLAS 3 has now stopped and no more capital outlay until June 2015.
So potentially the cash position improves £30m+ which switches a net £25m outflow to a positive inflow.
However, they did have an inflow of £22m loan funding within that figure, so if you assume that was one-off then net underlying cash outflow is around £15m. So sales need to go up a fair bit to bridge that, but it does state that some one-off set up costs in going operational / testing HYLAS 2, so operating expenses should fall a bit too.
So I estimate sales of around £20-£25m in H2 would break-even cash flow.
Might be wrong, and still digesting the figures.

[jeffian] 12/2/2013 09:20

Well I'm with Woozle1. They talk a good story but with Hylas1 and 2 now up there, the focus has to be on delivering cash. The only place to show what is really going on in a company is the Cashflow statement - you can blather on about revenue recognition and tax treatment but you can't hide whether the cash is flowing in or not. They burned £26m cash in the period and have £50m cash left - less than a year at that rate. According to analysts' estimates (Yahoo) they are looking for revenues of £74m in 2014. The company say they have committed sales of £40m with 18 months sales still to go, so so far so good. However, I'm a bit surprised at the high cost of sales but maybe the costs now stay relatively fixed while the revenues increase, widening the margin(?). If not, looking at their interim expenses (cost of sales, operating expenses and finance cost excluding depreciation), it seems that they need to achieve annualised sales of nearly £100m to go cashflow positive, or am I missing something?

[willessa] 12/2/2013 09:17

Half year costs - £25m

Full year £50m+

Next year will be higher - so still a bit off making a profit.

[2vdm] 12/2/2013 08:57

jojaken, I agree with divinausal1. SC, whatever one thinks about him is not a fool. He is usually ahead of the curve and is probably off blighting another company right now, having made a packet here. Are charts applicable here (I'm a hopeless chartist)and if so, can anybody who has those skills post one please.

[piadda] 12/2/2013 08:55

These results seem fantastic. Hylas1 almost sold out over northern Europe, southern Europe improving. Several beams on Hylas2 already sold out despite being operational for only a few months. Hylas3 on target. I can't imagine how the could have been better. Very happy with my holding even though I am well down.

[ttnyw] 12/2/2013 08:47

divinausa1

As they say; "Every little director helps!!"

[divinausa1] 12/2/2013 08:43

these will be back above £3 in short order...

[divinausa1] 12/2/2013 08:37

paul getting on board

[philo124] 12/2/2013 08:34

Jeffries note, 600p target.

[divinausa1] 12/2/2013 08:29

director recent buy was the signal that this is not a share for shorting, I think brown pants day for the shorters...

[jojaken] 12/2/2013 08:24

>2vdm Perhaps a fear that one SC might have one last try at pushing these down. ALthough personally I would see that as one last push to take my holdings to their max. In all probabilities, any push would be to enable him unwind his shorts at a profit before his followers rush for the exits as they see what he's doing.

IMHO

[divinausa1] 12/2/2013 08:22

give it a few days for traders to clear off, chart looks good recovery play

[woozle1] 12/2/2013 08:21

Too early to dance on EK's grave. Need to see concrete delivery of profitable growth. Still too much talk in the statement. Next 12 months will be critical. Still, I'd not like to be short.
W

[2vdm] 12/2/2013 08:11

Can't quite understand why we are seeing investors offloading. They must be desperate when this is a clear signal of good things to come. AVN is now well positioned and has a cash pile to see it through, whilst it becomes cashflow positive. Anyone know the cost of H3 and what its cash burn is likely to be before sales come in? From memory, H2 has a far higher capacity and so presumably will be the biggest earner out of all 3 satellites.

[rethemagic] 12/2/2013 08:04

Hows your short doing E.K. lol