Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[smudgeroo] 03/12/2010 14:40

Agree Deadsceptical, the chart will never be able to show the removal of risk. It will however give us a reference point in time of where the risk was removed.

[yorgi] 03/12/2010 14:37

I think that is pretty good summary Deadsceptical and along the line of my thinking and why i added on this mornings dip

[deadsceptical] 03/12/2010 14:20

The charts shown by smudgeroo do not show the most important fact. We have now removed the risk so in the medium term, up to 12 months, there will simply be a succession of good news which will push the share price up.

This is a perfect share for the medium term trader with a guarantee that at some point before q1 2011 the price will be at least 900 (being more cautious than the experts). So any purchase on dips will have a 30% upwards prospect with virtually no downside possibility. If there is some downward movement then just wait a little longer for the profit point.

I am going to be patient with mine, just kept a little cash to hand to cover spreadbet margin if necessary. Nearest thing in my life I have ever seen for a sure winner at some point.

[m.t.glass] 03/12/2010 13:11

nice one, dave.

"Williams expects the monthly charge to end users to be around £25, of which Avanti will get about half. That works out at £150 to Avanti from each customer each year, or £50 million if its retail partners sell all 350,000 possible subscriptions. "That will pay the satellite off in 26 months," he adds. And the £120 million satellite will last an estimated 15 years. "It's a beautiful printing press in the sky."


"But one of the big advantages to Avanti was that there was so little interest in the frequency band that the company paid nothing for its licence. It's a UK licence, awarded in 2005, but because frequencies are coordinated internationally through the ITU, Avanti is not restricted to UK services. "We have 14 gigahertz of spectrum and three orbital positions," says Williams.


"We've already paid for the rocket" for the second satellite, which is due for launch in the first half of 2012, he says

[smudgeroo] 03/12/2010 13:08

Absolutely 2vdm and nothing wrong with being cautious. In the grand scheme of things a few pence here and there won't make a huge amount of difference in the long run but it's always nice to take advantage given the opportunity.

I'm bullish for the long term but there is the chance that we still have a little further to go to fill the gap (represented by the pink box). If the gap fill doesn't hold as support then there is also the chance that the share price may drop back towards the 600 level to the long term trend line. Note that should the share price follow this path it would be forming a bullish falling wedge pattern which, as its name would suggest, is a very bullish scenario. Converging lines point to the beginning of the new year for a breakout of such scenario though I've a suspicion it'll break before then. Just my take on things, in the meantime I'll keep taking advantage of any buying opportunities as and when capital allows.

[2vdm] 03/12/2010 12:58

gundog you may be right, but its always hard to call the bottom. I would rather be in at these prices and be patient, as most of the risk at this stage has been reduced considerably after successful launch.
Must not forget that at launch the price was around 650 ish and now i'm only paying just over 6% extra, but with the knowledge that H1 is actually up there and almost ready to trial. Seems a small price to pay and hopefully even smaller as contract get signed and H2 starts to appear on the horizon.

[jimbo55] 03/12/2010 12:55

.... which is exactly what appears to be happening right now Blinkey. ;)

[blinkey] 03/12/2010 12:50

So glad I haven't set a stop loss on this beauty - maybe I am foolish but I just don't want to give any away to MM who could spike it down to trip losses.

[gundog10] 03/12/2010 12:40

2vdm think you could have hung in there and got them lower than that.

[2vdm] 03/12/2010 12:33

Agree with you Smudgeroo and just did at 690, inceasing my holding by 50%. It's always nice to get a bargain, but the downside is limited compared to the potential and when the next news comes out, I can't see that there will be many if any opportunities to get in under 700p. Just my view, but I am a cautious investor.

[smudgeroo] 03/12/2010 12:12

Agree, this is being walked down on low volume. Use the gap fill to your advantage to add before news of further contract wins are announced.

[thomasangus_com] 03/12/2010 12:10

it's also the gap fill, let's just get it out of the way before the next flurry of news.

[m.t.glass] 03/12/2010 12:00

sco77 - your guesses might sound a wee bit more informed if you knew the difference between support and resistance ;o)

(A pretty vital distinction - like confusing forward/backward when driving)

(Resistance is what 660 once was. Since when it becomes potential support not resistance)

[yorgi] 03/12/2010 11:37

I would expect them to Someuwin......how much will depend on how big I guess......a bit obvious I know :-)

[someuwin] 03/12/2010 11:35

Hopefull these contracts will get the share price motoring when they are announced...

"Avanti Communications eyes mobile operator sales

Dow Jones Newswires

Satellite broadband firm hopes to announce deals with two major mobile operators soon.

Broadband-by-satellite provider Avanti Communications Group PLC is in talks with mobile phone operators about selling capacity on its HYLAS 1 satellite, which launched Friday, the firm's chief executive said Wednesday.

The company is in talks with two major mobile companies, and hopes to announce deals soon, David Williams told Dow Jones Newswires..."

[2vdm] 03/12/2010 11:20

From RHPS yesterday....

AVANTI COMMUNICATIONS (AVN): Following the successful launch of Hylas-1, Avanti has given an exceptionally bullish view of its future with its annual results. Chairman John Brackenbury has described Avanti's opportunity as 'quite thrilling'. Chief Executive David Williams has expressed confidence that the capacity of Hylas-1 can be sold within three years. He said the capacity of Hylas-2, the larger second satellite due for launch in 2012, can be sold out within five years. Williams believes that......etc etc (already posted on here).......
.....So as I said, the story is very far from over. With the risk of launch failure in the past and Avanti expressing such confidence I am going to raise my buy limit to 750p and set a new £15 target. BUY UP TO 750p

[yorgi] 03/12/2010 11:07

Yes you are probably right Marknsparkle

Amateur chartist probably as good as any other Scott.....in my opinion chartist make a case for whichever way the share price goes :-)

[marksnsparkle] 03/12/2010 11:03

yorgi ... I'm thinking along the lines of once fund managers know the satellite is fully functionally (i.e. customer data is being handled) they will probably start to buy in big volumes

At the moment there is probably still a perceived risk out there that a problem could still be found with the satellite

[sco77harris] 03/12/2010 11:00

charts to me say 660ish is resistance, amateur guess, if it hits that expect a bounce, and if it goes below expect that to be brief

[yorgi] 03/12/2010 10:59

If it does go down to 650p I'm pretty sure it will soon shoot straight back up......or should I say rocket :-)

[yorgi] 03/12/2010 10:57

Think it also depends on how contracts are signed as well M&S

[marksnsparkle] 03/12/2010 10:52

We know the satellite won't be fully functional until the New Year, so I expect thats the next big event that will most likely drive the price up ... in the meantime if you have set a stop at £6.50 fasten your seatbelt :-)

[yorgi] 03/12/2010 10:50

Looks like you may have caught it write Scott....and I bet each of us who have added this morning have thought we had caught the bottom.....well I did but appears not !