Aston Martin Lagonda Glo... Share Discussion Threads

[blackhorse23] 22/8/2022 07:54

Zombie company

[mallorca 9] 20/8/2022 10:52

This looks like a stinker

[dancing piranha] 18/8/2022 22:28

300p seems about right to me! We'll see....

[eodfire] 18/8/2022 21:06

This happened mid July.

[eodfire] 18/8/2022 21:05

We shall see. Sp has broken out of the downward trend and looks to be moving sideways in a new channel.

[dancing piranha] 18/8/2022 17:21

How is this still above 500p?!!

[swiss tony] 14/8/2022 20:45

I was, and still am confused by that too.
I think Stroll loves ambiguity, no-one really knows where they stand therefore it's difficult to make an informed decision.

Merc and AML have obviously discussed and updated the terms and conditions, delaying the seconf tranche until next year, so it might be a moot point.

[wilmdav] 14/8/2022 16:45

Tony

I beg to differ about what the £28.6m cap applies to.

For the benefit of others, what we are referring to are two paragraphs immediately below several bullet points on page 69 of the Prospectus accompanying the 2020 Placing. The Prospectus is not easy to find on AML’s website but, if anyone is so inclined, following this link is a good place to start:

hxxps://www.astonmartinlagonda.com/investors/funding/october-2020-placing

The two paragraphs in question are not easy to decipher because they are riddled with terms that have been defined in previous parts of the Prospectus, mostly on pages 68 and 69.


It needs to be understood that all the shares that are going to be issued to Mercedes (MBAG) were valued by an independent valuer (BDO.LLP) at the time of the placing at £286m on the basis of an entry price of 1,246.34p x 22,947,137 shares. The first tranche of 11,232,864 shares was valued at £140m on the same basis, which provided the Company with access to Phase 1 of MBAG’s technology.

There are various references to supplementary agreements yet to be made about the scope and value of MBAG’s technology associated with the outstanding shares to be issued.

The first of the two paragraphs referred to above implies an expectation that the value of all the technology would eventually exceed the initial valuation of £286m, presumably as a result of unquantifiable factors such as inflation. In which case AML would make a top-up cash payment to MBAG, capped at £28.6m, which is 10% of the original valuation.

The second paragraph requires AML to make an unrelated cash payment to MBAG at the time of issue of all remaining shares if the share price is lower than it was at the time of the original placing (1,246p). The size of the payment will be determined by the difference in price multiplied by the number of additional shares issued (over and above Tranche 1). For example, if the share price was 371p, the payment would be £102.5m.

All figures and prices quoted above have been adjusted for the consolidation in 2020.

To be read in conjunction with posts 10110 and 10112.

[swiss tony] 13/8/2022 15:53

Basically, a year of no new cars (as tech agreement is delayed 12 months), and a year for AML to get the share oprice back to £12.46... otherwise a £28m bill. (the bill is capped)

[blackhorse23] 12/8/2022 16:45

Looks like another placing coming ?

[wilmdav] 12/8/2022 16:35

There was another pressure on AML prior to the capital raise announcement, not so far discussed.

The Strategic Cooperation Agreement with Mercedes Benz (MB) required AML to issue 22,947,137 shares to MB in exchange for access to elements of the latter's technology. The shares were to be issued in at least two tranches from Dec 2020 and no later than Q1 2023. The first and only tranche issued so far was for 11,232,864 shares (adjusted for 20:1 consolidation in 2020).

If by the time of completion of the share issuance the share price were to be less than 1,246.34p (adjusted for consolidation) the Company will make a cash payment to MB to make up the difference.

Share price at close on 14/07/22, the day before the RNS announcement was 371.3p and sliding.

Quantity of shares yet to be issued is 11,714,273 shares.

If the price were to be no higher than 371.3p at the end of Q1 2023, AML would have to pay at least £102.m to MB [(1,246.3 - 371.3) x 11,714,273].

The agreement was finally renegotiated on 28/07/22, the day before the capital raise RNS, "to extend the time frame to agree additional technology requests by 12 months o 31/12/2023, with corresponding tranche 2 share issuance by July 2024".

As I understand it, the technology yet to be agreed relates primarily to electrification of vehicles.

MB's decision to take part in the rights issue means they will retain their c20% shareholding when they receive the final tranche of shares - failing which AML won't get its electrification technology.

[alwaysvalue] 11/8/2022 12:36

Makes more sense to up the equity raise by another billion and clear the debt. Small raises to pay interest is just wasted money. I think I'd rather hold the bonds at this stage.

[swiss tony] 10/8/2022 19:49

It's not even close to being enough.
The CFO has stated at the analyst Q&A last week, that half the funds raised will pay off the debt, which will save them in the region of £30m per year.
Debt repayments right now are £290m per year, so after this raise they will be £260m.

Stroll's target of 10,000 cars, 2bn turnover and 500m EBITDA is for 2024/25.
500m minus 260m interest, minus 300m D&A equals.....
£60m loss, but with another 2 years of eye-watering debt repayments.

So why should shareholders get diluted again to the tune of 50%, and almost certainly diluted again before 2024, just to hit targets of a £60m loss?
Stroll is using shareholders as free finance for his son's F1 career, he has very little cash invested himself in AML.

[alwaysvalue] 10/8/2022 19:14

I've tried and failed to understand the balance sheet and actually get a good feeling for what's happening which is all I need to know to stay out. Anyone want to take a punt at what free cash flow ought to be if there was no debt, no suppliers owed money, all deposits paid off, legal cases settled, no F1 payments and spurious specials shut down and loses taken. What would the core business generate? Without some fundamental change of direction I don't see how the equity raise will be enough.

[blackhorse23] 07/8/2022 19:36

Aston in red every year .. investors loosing every month ... glad I have moved to MCB (LSE) few months ago & which looks very potential , high growth stocks ... upside signals now 200 percentage

[porsche1945] 02/8/2022 17:31

Bet you poor sods invested in this terminal dogshxt wish you had heeded my advice when this was floated, I said its a screaming short ( bankrupt 7 times in its history and all ICE cars are fxcked ) and to buy tesla, I shorted this with three different brokers from 17.60 to .64p and tesla went parabolic…..best trades of my life and as I’m offshore based so zero capital gains on the trades. Love it. Aston M will be taken out by its bondholders, its always been a shxt company with shxt cars. BUY TESLA FFS, will be 1400 by xmas and 16.80/17.40 by next spring. Assuming i will be called anti British by a load of self harming brexit deadbeats on here again, well I’m laughing all the way to the bank axxholes.

[swiss tony] 01/8/2022 16:09

Surely a 41 year old F1 driver is the equivalent of a 76 year old (puppet) CEO?

[swiss tony] 31/7/2022 14:21

I can;t short it ether (IG too), but it doesn't stop everyone accusing me of being a shorter, it's hilarious!