Aston Martin Lagonda Glo... Share Discussion Threads

[swiss tony] 12/10/2024 14:36

£382m liquidity - customer deposits of £188m = £194m cash left @ June 2024

H2 CAPEX (350m for the year / 2 for H2) is £175m, and bond debt interest payment is circa £60m (due in Q4)

That’s £235m of outflow in H2

£235m outflow > £194m inflow imvho. So they are £40m short, minimum.

And that’s the best case scenario. Add in recalls, supply issues, selling fewer cars, the cost of raising more money etc.

All figures taken directly from AML.

[swiss tony] 12/10/2024 14:35

Spacedust is less than 2% up from his 106p now, so expect much more ramping from him in the foreseeable future.
Amazing how many think a share is a bargain after a huge fall.
The company just told the market they will once again not be making any profit, now the market is realising it's run out of patience with AML.

Losing hundreds of millions every year and needs to raise £2bn for electrification over the bext 2/3 years...

Utterly. Mental.

[waldron] 11/10/2024 02:20

Aston Martin's Production Targets Slashed, Short Sellers Pounce
By City A.M - Oct 10, 2024, 2:00 PM CDT

Aston Martin issued a profit warning and announced production cuts due to supply chain disruptions and a slowdown in the Chinese economy.

Hedge funds, including Marshall Wace, have taken short positions on Aston Martin's stock, indicating a bearish outlook.

Shares in Aston Martin have fallen significantly, reflecting a decline in investor confidence in the company's future prospects.

Bearish

Short sellers are circling Aston Martin after the iconic marque issued a profit warning last month and said it would produce around 1,000 less cars this year.

Marshall Wace, the hedge fund owned by GB News baron Paul Marshall, took out a net short position of 0.83 per cent of the company’s shares the day the warning was issued, while investment manager Qube Research and Technologies took out a short position of 0.9 per cent this morning, according to new data published by the Financial Conduct Authority.

The data also shows a 0.52 per cent short position from Helikon Investments, which was taken on 2 May.

This means the net short position on Aston Martin’s stock is at least 2.25 per cent in total, however the FCA data only captures shorts above 0.5 per cent of a company’s shares, meaning other smaller short positions could exist.

Shares in the carmaker have endured a bumpy ride since it first went public in October 2018. The stock is down over 95 per cent in the last five years and has fallen 50 per cent in the last 12 months.

There were signs last year that the FTSE 250 firm had finally made it out of the slow lane, with its shares topping London’s mid-cap index by September 2023.

Renewed investment from two key stakeholders, the Chinese carmaker Geely and its billionaire chair Lawrence Stroll, and a £182m deal with US-start up Lucid to produce high-power electric cars, had got investors excited.

However, production issues during the hotly anticipated roll-out of its new DB12 model sent shares spiralling at the end of 2023.

The group’s justification for this year’s performance had rested on a significant ramp-up in production later in the year.

But a profit warning last month poured cold water on the plans, with supply chain disruption and a slowdown in the Chinese economy dragging on deliveries. Both wholesale production volumes and adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) are now expected to fall below market expectations this year.

Aston Martin has been approached for comment.

Marshall Wace declined to comment. Helikon Investments and Qube Research and Technologies have been approached for comment.

By City AM

[spacedust] 09/10/2024 14:51

Dream on its up 14% already since last week. It'll finish close to 120p next week. Then 130 following week. Love the share price here

[dancing piranha] 09/10/2024 12:40

More likely to be 80p before 180p!

[spacedust] 09/10/2024 10:56

Yip. Was 100p 1st of October. Could well be 180p by end of the year. For me share price is all that matters.

[florenceorbis] 09/10/2024 10:27

Will be 140p by end of the month. Not bad for 35% to 40% return
advent_cast
8 Oct '24 - 16:04 - 12284 of 12284
0 0 0
All car manufacturers are doing this, but AML still has the bigest ratio of sells to Bela(Rusia) (40% from the whole 24 year sells):



This is after they promised not to sell to Rusia back in 2022. Now the sells in Belarus have soared...

[advent_cast] 08/10/2024 16:04

All car manufacturers are doing this, but AML still has the bigest ratio of sells to Bela(Rusia) (40% from the whole 24 year sells):

hxxps://www.statista.com/outlook/mmo/passenger-cars/aston-martin/worldwide

This is after they promised not to sell to Rusia back in 2022. Now the sells in Belarus have soared...

[spacedust] 05/10/2024 21:55

Same thing happened last time. Tanked to 100p. Then slowly crept up to a staggering 400p.

I agree..i only give a damn about share price movement. I got in at 106p already up almost 5%. Will be 140p by end of the month. Not bad for 35% to 40% return

[wall street trader] 04/10/2024 16:13

Well it's certainly had a turn around today let's see what next week brings

[essentialinvestor] 04/10/2024 15:52

Tony, with respect, unless you've made money on the short side, any 'call' you've made here is just words. It's meaningless.

I posted here Before the first day of dealings the now famous call by an FT journalist - "Aston Martin: beware a private equity wolf in sheep's clothing".

But as I took no position, there's no kudos from highlighting.

[f0rl0rn] 04/10/2024 12:16

https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/aston-martins-new-chief-driving-in-the-right-direction-says-us-investment-bank-3722661

[wall street trader] 04/10/2024 12:04

Best of luck it's a fair punt at these prices but don't bet the kitchen sink that's all

[dealy] 04/10/2024 11:45

I had no position before the trading update and now have a price of 118p

[wall street trader] 04/10/2024 11:32

Dealy - it's a risk but so is the whole market - For the record my average is £1.17 which is obviously losing but only have a small position relative to my account size

[swiss tony] 04/10/2024 11:14

How are they going to afford £2bn for electrification over the next 3/4 years?
AMLs own calculation, £2bn, from a company who loses hundreds of millions every year.

[swiss tony] 04/10/2024 11:12

Good for you, top up time then. You don't have to argue with me if you think you are right, put your money where your mouth is, go on!
And tell us your price at the time, otherwise no-one will believe you later.

[dealy] 04/10/2024 10:51

my only interest is where the shares go from here. I think this sell off is overdone and we I'll see 150p again soon. I believe the current difficult trading environment is not life threatening and will not require significant dilution

[swiss tony] 04/10/2024 10:42

Exactly. A fool and his money are easily parted.
Existing shareholders now lose 10% a year and the bondholders make 10% a year, again fools handing their hard earned across to the owners.
The same owners who lie to shareholders with impunity.

£382m liquidity - customer deposits of £188m = £194m cash left @ June 2024

H2 CAPEX (350m for the year / 2 for H2) is £175m, and bond debt interest payment is circa £60m (due in Q4)

That’s £235m of outflow in H2

£235m outflow > £194m inflow imvho. So they are £40m short, minimum.

And that’s the best case scenario. Add in recalls, supply issues, selling fewer cars, the cost of raising more money etc.

All figures taken directly from AML.

[dealy] 04/10/2024 10:31

Actually, no money was put into the company at the IPO which was both scandalous and a huge mis. Existing shareholders sold to fools

[swiss tony] 04/10/2024 10:24

5 years ago investors put money in at obscene levels.
AML is down 98% since IPO.
Many investors think they are buying in at the bottom, only for it to fall further, as there is dilution around every corner.
No-one is buying until after the company has enough cash as a going concern.

The market now doubts AML can ever be profitable. Doesn't matter who is running it.

[dealy] 04/10/2024 09:37

Obviously, AM is a minnow compared to Ferrari (although it still has roughly 1 billion of revenue). Turbulence is always going to have a greater effect on the smaller company.Take note that there are no financial ratios that compare net or gross debt to market cap (the latter being a variable that is subject to daily fluctuations based on sentiment). AM is on a journey to a near-term destination where the full suite of products ramp up and financial metrics arrive at their target levels. The valuation of the target state is a multiple of the current market cap. Indeed, 1 year ago, investors put money in at 3 5 times the current market cap.

[dealy] 04/10/2024 09:19

40m is peanuts in the bigger scheme of things. Vendor financing or jigging WC could plug that hole. The bigger picture is that Ferrari is worth 80 billion USD and trades at 12 times revenue. Aston Martin is a bargain in comparison

[swiss tony] 04/10/2024 08:00

£382m liquidity - customer deposits of £188m = £194m cash left @ June 2024

H2 CAPEX (350m for the year / 2 for H2) is £175m, and bond debt interest payment is circa £60m (due in Q4)

That’s £235m of outflow in H2

£235m outflow > £194m inflow imvho. So they are £40m short, minimum.
And that’s the best case scenario. Add in recalls, supply issues, selling fewer cars, the cost of raising more money etc.


All figures taken directly from AML.