Aston Martin Lagonda Glo... Share Discussion Threads

[dancing piranha] 14/7/2022 16:36

Tony,

I would not be surprised if we see this in double figures IMHO. I thought at 1200p, I might get lucky and see 800p, where I thought there would be good support. There was for a short while, but to see it less than half that price now, I see no reason to close. There will be dilution at some point, without doubt IMO.

[quidzinn] 14/7/2022 16:27

@Gary_Barlow ....

The Phoenix Consortium. John Towers, Peter Beale, Nick Stephenson and John Edwards had all worked at Rover Group, and wanted to keep the mainstream side open. The Department for Trade and Industry, the Transport and General Workers’ union and the public at large supported the Phoenix proposal, and the deal was completed in May 2000. For a nominal payment of £10, the Phoenix Four were the owners of MG Rover. The assets included a £427 million interest free loan from BMW, enough to ensure the business would remain afloat for a minimum of three further years and thus to divest BMW of its obligations to pay redundancy payments upon the company closure.


Phoenix’s tenure at the top of MG Rover came to an end in 2005 – a proposed tie-up with SAIC didn’t quite happen, and in April 2005 6300 workers went home for the very last time. An investigation by The Insolvency Service disqualified all four from being company directors in future, in no small part owing to the company’s bankruptcy. £1.3 billion was owed to creditors, and pension pots for those made redundant wouldn’t be forthcoming either. £12.5 million was pledged to a Longbridge Trust for staff, but many felt that this wasn’t enough of a gesture for four men who took a combined £36 million from the coffers.

Q

[arai] 14/7/2022 15:42

ST, the issue cannot be ignored. They may get a cash injection or issue then dilution which will only defer the inevitable with vultures swirling to pick up the bits. 12 months is my guess.

[gary_barlow] 14/7/2022 14:26

Bankruptcy! Ze germans will do to Aston what they did to Rover.

[swiss tony] 14/7/2022 08:08

Except for the fact if ANYONE takes more than 30%, Merc cancel the tech agreement and AML have no engine/powertrain supplier.
Apart from that, brilliant analysis.

Merc also get another board member (2 in total) when they hit 15%, doubling their veto ability.
Complete oontrol.

You're right Piranha, I didn't think it would drop this far back then, good call.
Where do you think it's going next?

Would you agree on massive dilution or bankruptcy?

[dancing piranha] 13/7/2022 17:36

What a cracking short this has been!!

[swiss tony] 13/7/2022 15:31

I'd say keep a keen eye on Blackrock's short.
They increased the same day Stroll lost a court case trying to bankrupt Nebula in Switzerland, so they know what's going on.

[loglorry1] 13/7/2022 14:59

@Swiss do you see a bottom or will this require some sort of restructuring which wipes out equity ?

[swiss tony] 12/7/2022 20:57

Sounds like someone is losing money after ignorning well-researched advice, diddums.
No-one can have a bigger stake than Merc, it's in the agreement, try reading it before spouting off with more vaccuous drivel.

I reference FT articles, company RNSs and other sources to prove my point.

I called it right and you hate me, we all get it.
I was still correct though, from £21 all the way down.

[loglorry1] 11/7/2022 09:23

thanks ST very helpful. Sorry didn't mean to criticise.

[swiss tony] 11/7/2022 08:19

You always get an idiot who complains the article is old.
I posted it to show Wlmcav the details on a specific question he asked, which occured months ago.

Here's the most recent article, I hope that meets your approval Loglorry1.

[loglorry1] 10/7/2022 21:31

That story or at least the comments are dated 2021

[arja] 10/7/2022 11:59

perhaps 400 level will turn out to be the bottom although the bounce on friday might well be just a DCB !

[swiss tony] 08/7/2022 08:50

You're welcome.
I am not the author, but have a lot of time for someone who spends time telling the truth to help others out.
He knows his stuff for sure.

[wilmdav] 07/7/2022 15:45

Thanks Tony. Fascinating stuff.

I've read some of your other 'karenable' links. This guy seems to have the skills and insight of a professional analyst without inhibitions.

[swiss tony] 07/7/2022 14:46

for info on Merc board member, Wilm.

[swiss tony] 07/7/2022 14:38

It was part of the tech agreement AML made with Merc/Daimler.
Free shares for Merc and a seat on the board, which was occupied by one of Daimler's CFOs as far as I can remember. So Merc were checking out the finances of AML, a deep dive.
Moers leaving opens up a can of worms, will Merc pursue AML and take them over, stay as they are with c.11%, increase to 20%, or sell the lot?

Merc are in control here, Stroll cannot buy any more shares under the same agreement, so Merc can decide if anyone else can invest or not.

[wilmdav] 07/7/2022 13:59

Thank you Tony for this and other recent enlightening articles.

I was curious about your post 9956 in which you say Merc's seat on the Board can veto any cash investment. That is not easy to reconcile with the interest shown by Audi and Geely. Would you be willing to elaborate?

[eodfire] 07/7/2022 10:42

Interesting that people here think stroll is an imbecile, having amassed a net worth of $2.9bn.

[pwal] 07/7/2022 08:27

Nice article. Thanks Swiss.

[swiss tony] 06/7/2022 13:49

I agree. A great British company, but Stroll is an egocentric idiot.
Merc played him perfectly, they end up with more of the company for free, potentially 20%.
This is an interesting read....

[gary_barlow] 05/7/2022 19:02

I’d like to see this great British company survive, and the livelihoods. It needs to come off the stock market, needs funding, and needs decent management - rather than Delboy.