Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[fenners66] 20/11/2023 13:35

Just looking back at 2023 accounts I had not noticed this in previous accounts - don't know if it was already there

"A change in control of the Company (defined, inter alia, as a
person or a group of persons acting in concert gaining control of
more than 30% of the Company’s voting rights) leads to an
immediate event of default under the Company’s asset-based
senior lending facility. In such circumstances, the agent for the
lending group may, and if so directed by more than 50% of the
lenders shall, declare the amounts outstanding under the facility
immediately due and payable."

That's $4.6 bn redeemable at 101%

Essentially building in a poison pill for any future bid defence.
No I didn't expect anyone to be bidding for AHT - but it looks like the BOD have decided to make sure...

[fenners66] 20/11/2023 13:21

I just played around with some numbers to see what they are telling us for the full year 2024


It depends very much on how much the EBITDA % changes with the increase in revenue.

In my calculations if the EBITDA % remains the same then given

Depreciation cost moving from $1772m to $2120m
and Interest from $366m to $540m

The result is going to be very similar to last year !

That is on an EBITDA 11% ahead with the higher turnover.

Bear in mind that the interest cost over the last 2 years will have gone from $233m to $540m
whilst they have been spending cash on buying shares instead of reducing potential debt (and interest).

So what does that mean for the shares ?
Ignore the earning stagnation and concentrate on higher EPS ?

Or examine the actual profitability of the company , remove the growth multiple and trash the share price ?

Look at what has happened so far today !

[fenners66] 20/11/2023 13:07

EssentialInvestor : So if you're not a BOD or II just shut up and buy sell or hold - ?


I guess if one is not an MP then there is no point in getting political or complaining or protesting after all everyone gets their say when they vote.

Essentially if anyone disagrees with anything they either have the power to change it or just shut up ?

Pretty defeatist especially on a forum which exists for people to add their point of view about company results and prospects.

Strangely enough for advfn - its ON topic as well.

[fenners66] 20/11/2023 13:03

disc0dave45 - you will likely not be reading me agreeing with you about not expecting AHT to blame the weather ,
since you probably still have me on filter - because I do not swoon over share buybacks.

But you are right. What is the point of endlessly trotting out adjusted EBITDA adjusted this that and the other if the adjusted figures STILL include exceptional weather events !

I have "banged on" about adjusted earnings in the past as they like to take costs out and call them exceptional - eg
the finance renewal costs even though they know they are repeatable - but leaving in hurricane events and blaming them for not happening ? Crass.

[sevenccc] 20/11/2023 12:36

Interesting comparison in the growth in sales for United Rentals v AHT. Their last trading update in October says sales up 21%. AHT only guiding 11-13%. Why?

The weather/disaster recovery issues are presumably similar opportunities for both as they have such broad and similar cover. Or are AHT more skewed to this type of activity? The Film and TV area is more specialised but even there Facilities by ADF has recovered strongly already in the UK.

The comments on BB policy absolutely right but the policy is in vogue with the power brokers. Had watched the share price moving up nicely and was considering a sale and reallocation to small/mid cap as don't expect this share to move particularly quickly if markets have a dramatic move up. Let's see how recovery goes now! It's still a sound business and should surely benefit in the medium term from the inappropriately named Inflation Reduction Act.

[bracke] 20/11/2023 12:19

Nasty, very nasty!

But looking on the bright side that is a very large gap to fill at 5244 and AHT does like to fill its gaps.

It will be interesting to see where URI opens later to-day.

I make no apologies for posting a chart but those of a sensitive nature may prefer not to view it.

AHT DAILY

[essentialinvestor] 20/11/2023 11:39

Re buybacks (in UKX constituents) - unless you are a member of the BOD or a large institutional Investor, any view on buy backs makes no difference. The only power available to you as a PI is whether to buy, hold or sell a particular stock.

[disc0dave46] 20/11/2023 09:23

Didn't expect that the weather would ever be included as a reason for a PW for AHT.

[fenners66] 20/11/2023 09:04

Will the brainwashed ever listen?
Buybacks do nothing to improve the profitability of the company
and when push comes to shove that's what matters not a construct EPS metric.
The wrecked share price this morning tells it starkly

[trt] 20/11/2023 08:59

Cut in dividend too no doubt.

[trt] 20/11/2023 08:34

Could see £40 at this rate

[slogsweep] 20/11/2023 08:17

They didnt say they were cutting divi or BB so they are borrowing at say 6% to save paying divi at 1,7% crazy

[slogsweep] 20/11/2023 08:01

Totally agree BB are a waste of cash in my opinion either reduce net debt or pay dividends.

[tomtum1] 20/11/2023 08:01

Ashtead cuts guidance. Another Discodave46 special. Keep spinning them records!

[suetballs] 20/11/2023 08:00

In this market any misses tend to get hammered.
Suet

[fenners66] 20/11/2023 07:08

No doubt the market will ignore the positives and focus on :-

"In addition, we now expect a full-year depreciation charge of c.$2,120m and a net interest cost of c. $540m which will result in adjusted profit before tax being below current market expectations. "

Which quickly leads me to asking what is the interest cost comparison ?
Of course paying off debt instead of doing BB's would have reduced that cost and possibly left the market with a more positive update.

The crux here is the trading update tells of how the whole company is doing - there is no mention of the constructed metric of EPS.

So if the market chooses to dislike this , then the share BB will do nothing for the rating of the company.

[tomtum1] 19/11/2023 13:16

Good day diggers.Are you still using your other accounts?Teddavis, Discodave45, Discodave5 Diggerdog1 and many more.

[disc0dave46] 19/11/2023 10:10

Good day Mr bA cut in Q1 was only a low probability (15%) and would guess they are also saying the probability of the UK going into recession (Mr Bailey has screwed up!) is also low.....we will see!.Fed minutes next Tuesday after close will give Bailey some more clues, then Hunt will possibly not help by putting more money in folks pockets - not too much though I guess.Have a good one.

[bracke] 18/11/2023 17:22

Good day disc0

Ref Goldman Sachs

UK inflation fell to 4.6% in October and the target is 2.0%.

A rate cut in February would appear to be very optimistic. I suppose if there was a sizeable drop November-February then maybe a cut in March.

[tomtum1] 17/11/2023 23:07

Ah diggers this is you here. With the following multiple accounts:https://uk.advfn.com/forum/search?q=biddy74&index=posts&post_poster=on

[disc0dave46] 17/11/2023 17:20

Clearly can’t read
tomtum117 Nov '23 - 16:29 - 62274 of 62274 (Filtered)

[tomtum1] 17/11/2023 16:29

Good afternoon diggers 398

[disc0dave46] 17/11/2023 15:34

Good afternoon Mr bGoldman Sachs seem a tad optimistic.....or pessimistic whichever way you look at it!.Https://www.mortgagesolutions.co.uk/news/2023/11/17/base-rate-could-fall-as-early-as-february-2024-goldman-sachs/