Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave46] 03/12/2023 16:32

Interesting article particularly the table giving the sales (to April 2023) split by country and type of rental equipment. Can see why Canada was impacted due to the film / TV strikes where lighting, grip & lens equipment represented 22% of sales and mobile work platforms (which I guess could also serve the film / TV sector?) was 31% of sales.Https://www.ajbell.co.uk/articles/investmentarticles/269194/ashtead-first-half-results-tuesday-5-december

[bracke] 03/12/2023 15:51

Good day LAIRD

Filling the gap back up to 5244 by Christmas is a big ask. Remember the reason for the gap was the recent data from AHT which analysts did not like and resulted in the fall.
URI announce data in January. It will be interesting to see if it is similar to AHT or is more optimistic.

'IF' US data this coming week and any prior to Christmas is 'good' and looking at the rise in the US market over November a gap fill is a possibility but will take some doing.

As disc0 posts the interims are on Tuesday. They hopefully will aid the cause.

[disc0dave46] 02/12/2023 11:15

Hopefully Tuesdays interims will put more meat on the bones and all the bad news is already priced in.

[lairddavid] 02/12/2023 10:13

Bracke, do you thik AHT will fill the gap on the run up to Christnas, URI are on a strong run. There graphs tend to end up pretty siilar?

[fenners66] 01/12/2023 22:20

Thanks bracke I did remember correctly then.
Although a 14 bagger looks amazing for URI in that time , looking at AHT since the start of 2012
its been about a 22 bagger so pretty cool for AHT

[bracke] 01/12/2023 18:53

A couple of charts for you fenners. The last time URI were at $35 was November 2012.


URI DAILY




URI DAILY LONG TERM

[fenners66] 01/12/2023 16:59

URI just cracked $500 a share and I remember when they were about $35 (I think !)

[bracke] 30/11/2023 17:50

disc0

Perhaps JPM may start selling some of their stocks.

If you look at the Elliott Wavers their analysis is that the July-October drop was a five wave decline which is being followed by a three wave rise which is close to completion If correct the analysis is for something like a fall of 10% on the S&P 500 to 4100ish.

[bracke] 30/11/2023 15:40

Good day disc0

A varied reaction to the data by the US market.

As I type:

DOW + 0.50%

S&P 500 - 0.07%

NAS 100 - 0.30%

[disc0dave46] 30/11/2023 13:42

Thanks as ever Mr bUS PCE has come in and hit estimates (from what I've read anyway).US jobless claims 218k v 220k estimate.

[bracke] 30/11/2023 12:48

Considering fenners post I post a link to a macro daily chart.

Look where the share price is currently then look to the left of the chart, you will see the current price zone is a 'favourite' s/r location.

AHT DAILY



and here is a second chart of S&P500 Stocks Above 50-Day Average. I don't think you need me to explain it.

[fenners66] 29/11/2023 20:39

And the one they quoted on Bloomberg
"stop trying to buy a fair company at a wonderful price - instead look at a wonderful company at a fair price."

[disc0dave46] 29/11/2023 12:38

Sad news about Charlie Munger, RIP.Courtesy of Ramp Capital top 10 of his greatest quotes:1. "Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up."2. "The best thing a human being can do is to help another human being know more." 3. "It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent." 4. "In my whole life, I have known no wise people who didn't read all the time - none, zero." 5. "I never allow myself to have an opinion on anything that I don't know the other side's argument better than they do."6. "The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting!"7. "You don't have to be brilliant, only a little bit wiser than the other guys, on average, for a long, long time." 8. "The first rule is that you can't really know anything if you justremember isolated facts and try and bang 'em back."9. "There are worse situations than drowning in cash and sitting, sitting, sitting." 10. "The game of life is the game of everlasting learning. At least it is if you ever want to win"

[disc0dave46] 24/11/2023 19:47

Article in yesterdays Shares magazine with a buy recommendation, they feel the drop was overdone, it's a great long term quality compounder and a great buying opportunity. "The market may want to reserve judgement on the company until it publishes its first half results on 5th December, but assuming there is no more bad news we see the shares getting back on the conveyor belt and resuming their upward trend".

[perfido] 24/11/2023 16:48

Thanks for the reminder regarding Thanksgiving, Disc0, at least we know why the market continued to disappoint...

Happy weekend all!
.

[disc0dave46] 23/11/2023 20:18

Thanks for kind words Perfido but no comment.Thanksgiving today so UK market seemed a bit directionless and believe US closes early tomorrow (6pm) as it's Black Friday.

[fenners66] 23/11/2023 19:23

Fine by me perfido, cheers

[perfido] 23/11/2023 19:20

An encouraging day for AHT today albeit with low volume..

fenners, disco,

Time to bury the hatchet? With respect both of you are well respected posters on this thread and we value your contributions, although we may not always agree!

Nevertheless, time to move on? 🙂
.

[disc0dave46] 22/11/2023 19:21

FennersIt took 4 or so posts of moaning before you actually posted up anything useful (that's a compliment by the way, and not for the first time!) - which I'd already done similar calcs hours earlier (despite you saying I'm thick some time ago) and I then sold half my holdings based on the numbers.I've already posted my concerns and in particular that it now looks like emergency weather events are factored into their forecasts, which I definitely don't like. Not much more to say tbh.All the best

[fenners66] 22/11/2023 17:31

disco - there are other things to discuss with AHT

E.g. my view on the numbers the other day.

I have also mentioned about exceptionals and as we said exceptionals that don't allow for exceptional weather events
in the adjusted figures !

However I find it far easier to pick holes in accounts and read between the lines and add details of what companies
are omitting from their reporting - after all a company should be the best propagandist for what they are doing well.

Until recently I did not have much of that ilk for AHT.

Dividend could be stronger but growing earnings and dividends for years was fine and the share price has reflected this for what seems decades now.

But the first dismaying operating thing that caught my eye was buying an operation in the Bahamas (or whichever holiday island it was).
Now I add to that a perceived lack of prudence compared to Drabble with the reporting weather gains - I am sure they were always reported as a bonus.
Then we have very large directors remuneration and bonuses.
Now we have what is received as a profit warning.

I am beginning to wander if there is a change of culture at the top. That worries me.
Did I read you sold half the other day ?
Absolutely don't want to say it , but that may well have been a smart move - I hope I am wrong.

[perfido] 22/11/2023 15:06

Berkshire Hathaway are still regularly doing buybacks which is at variance with post 62313

However perhaps the answer is for fenners to sell AHT and buy NYSE BRK.A shares, dd, I note that the share is currently priced at only 548,082.42 USD

:-)
.