Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave45] 06/12/2022 07:39

Excellent numbers.Adj eps 117.9c (2.5% up on what I expected)Particularly nice to read:"We now expect full year results ahead of our previous expectations".....plus ahead of their strategic plan.

[fenners66] 06/12/2022 07:17

To put that interim dividend in context

Last year 12.5c was 8.5 % of the earnings 147.5c
This year 15c is 7.4% of the earnings 202.4c

As said , buybacks do not lead to higher future dividends

[fenners66] 06/12/2022 07:15

On first glance very strong operating results and profit

But despite greater growth in profit and the share buybacks
dividends up by 20% (which sounds a large %) to only
15c a share, whilst earnings rose by 55c a share to 202.4c a share.

In other words despite the "Profit attributable to equity holders
of the Company" they are not actually going to get their hands on it...

Excluding the effect of IFRS 16, net debt at 31 October 2022 was $6,212m (2021: $4,677m),
So all that spending on buybacks adds to debt , instead of paying dividends to actual shareholders.

[perfido] 05/12/2022 18:35

Who is hope, and where did he spring from?

If we get the usual sell off after results, it will probably look like a buying opportunity imho 😊

[disc0dave45] 05/12/2022 17:35

"Hope springs eternal."It does

[bracke] 05/12/2022 15:40

"Supporting Mr Galbraith’s wise words….I’;ve pencilled in 115 cents for Q2 eps :)"
===============================================================================

Hope springs eternal.

[disc0dave45] 05/12/2022 13:27

Supporting Mr Galbraith's wise words....I've pencilled in 115 cents for Q2 eps :)

[disc0dave45] 05/12/2022 13:24

Good day Mr bNo problem with link, goes to show how bad forecasts can be despite their attempt to show mathematical credibility!.Prefer to ignore most macro forecasts.There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know.– John Kenneth Galbraith

[fenners66] 05/12/2022 10:51

Just applied a little bit of guesswork to work out the potential interim dividend

I think about 17.6c or 14.4p

Still want more , but that's my guess.

[disc0dave45] 05/12/2022 09:52

Thanks perfido Q2 tomorrow so hopefully not it's usual fall on good numbers.

[perfido] 04/12/2022 23:17

Ashtead embodies sharing economy theme, says Liontrust

Liontrust manager Peter Michaelis has added Ashtead (AHT) to his Sustainable Future UK Growth fund this year, as it represents the ‘embodiment of the sharing economy’.

In a report looking at reasons to be optimistic in 2023, the Liontrust manager stated that the group’s business model is ‘the embodiment of the sharing economy’.

‘[It] rents out industrial, commercial, and general equipment across the US, UK, and Canada, thus maximising the utilisation of equipment that would otherwise sit idle for long periods, and offers assurance that equipment is serviced and maintained properly and is reliable,’ he said.

‘In doing so, it allows its customers to concentrate on their core business competencies and to reduce their inventories of capital equipment.’

Shares in Ashtead fell 0.3% to £49.75 on Wednesday, having rallied from a low of under £35 in June.

[perfido] 04/12/2022 11:39

Hi disc0,

Traditionally with these sorts of calculations, you decide on the answer you want first, and then work backwards 😁

[disc0dave45] 04/12/2022 11:11

The following gives detail on how the NFP forecast is determined (I think!).
All very complicated and beyond me, but love the mind blowing formulas, especially when compared to how they allow for forecasting business closures and new businesses (births and deaths), this formula is a lot simpler and has a plus error included!.
In short it’s a best guess estimate that clearly has greater variances (to reality) than those inferred in the methodology, a 31.5% variance suggests some major “tweaks” are required to their inclusion of a fudge factor (“error”).

[disc0dave45] 03/12/2022 13:18

Mr bI know, it was cheeky of me....but the hound told me to say it!.Anyway, after a few hours googling, how the chuff do they determine those NFP forecasts?, anybody?, do they also do lottery numbers I wonder!.Have a good day :)

[bracke] 02/12/2022 18:42

disc0

"“transitory” pmsl."
===================

That's a low blow. There really was no need for that........

The NFP was 31.5% above expected. As I type the S&P 500 is -0.58% below yesterdays close.

If the NFP had been 31.5% BELOW expected can you imagine what the S&P 500 increase would have been? Certainly some way above -0.58%!

I suspect it will take something very 'nasty' to bring the US Market down before the New Year.

[disc0dave45] 02/12/2022 15:23

Mr bIf it's a true representation of his / the FED's strategy then I suppose why not say it as it is......he's nothing to gain from completely discrediting himself - "transitory" pmsl.

[bracke] 02/12/2022 14:49

Something to consider:

Mr Powell's latest speech was only two days ago. Given that the FED has access to all the relevant data it would be surprising if he were not aware of todays data. Yet he still gave the market what they wanted to hear. Why?

[disc0dave45] 02/12/2022 14:23

Oct number has been updated to 284k from 261k so will Novembers show a marginal change when also updated?Https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/november-jobs-report-labor-department-december-2-225203710.html

[disc0dave45] 02/12/2022 13:53

Mr bLet's see if it shrugs it off!

[fenners66] 02/12/2022 13:44

20,000 construction jobs added - IN November....

[fenners66] 02/12/2022 13:37

NFP higher than expected at 263,000 but down from October's now revised upwards 284,000
wage inflation at 5.1 %
That is something that Powell wants to see lower so the risk is higher interest rates for longer

Which means US stocks fall - but so does the £ so those dividends are worth a bit more
though no where near the $1.07 level....

[bracke] 02/12/2022 13:05

Good day disc0

If the NFP is some way lower than 200k the market will probably go 'nuts' again. If it's higher it will probably 'shrug it off'.

I getting the impression that the market wants to keep things moving up into next year when company profits will feel the affects of increased interest rates and a drop in the market.......just my thought.

[disc0dave45] 02/12/2022 11:24

Good day Mr bBelieve non farm at 1:30pm, that will be interesting and hopefully support Mr P in his 0.5%.Forecasts: payrolls +200k (from 261k), unemployment rate from 3.7% to 3.8%.

[bracke] 01/12/2022 16:49

disc0

"I blame these pesky traders lol."
=================================

I agree.....I wasn't trading.


"some strange folk about!"
==========================

I know...I see one in the mirror whenever I look!