Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave45] 27/11/2022 18:18

Good day Mr b"This will increase mortgage rates"....mortgage rates are falling!.Think we will never see the same vision of the short / medium term.....I'm forever optimistic you are a pessimist (it's not reality unless you have a time machine). Not too bothered in such timeframes as only interested in the long term. If more opportunities arise due to yet another dip then great.Do markets immediately align with Fed / BoE policy's?, surely not as we are told tone and time again the markets are forward looking!.The hound says woof woof

[bracke] 27/11/2022 13:35

Good day disc0

"mmm when are facts not reality?….do you contend that we are still experiencing a bear rally?….if so you might well be right, then again you might not."
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When I mentioned reality I was referring to further interest rate rises by the FED and BoE which they have both stated will happen. This will increase mortgage rates and consumer credit rates causing a slow down in spending by consumers and companies which is exactly what the central banks want in order to bring down inflation.

Given the above scenario it is difficult to see that the market will continue to rise, indeed that is the opposite of what the central banks require.

We know that bear market rallies can be 'vicious' and the foregoing suggests to me that what we are seeing is a bear market rally.

It will be very interesting to see if I am right or wrong. I will be particularly interested if I am wrong and more to the point why I was wrong.

Regards to the hound.

[disc0dave45] 25/11/2022 18:59

Mr b"but fortunately I managed to hold on to reality or some form of it."mmm when are facts not reality?....do you contend that we are still experiencing a bear rally?....if so you might well be right, then again you might not.In 6 months I'm not bothered, try me in say 5 years from now! lol :)Asymmetry- the hound is the asymmetry one not me, who do you think picks my investments!, poor fella most of his parts lack symmetry now, bless.

[bracke] 25/11/2022 18:27

disc0

You had me on the point of being optimistic about the UK Market but fortunately I managed to hold on to reality or some form of it. We will have to have a review of our relative views in 6 months time. I did note that your list was about the UK whereas mine was about the US. Unfortunately I still think worse is to come for the UK.

We are at opposite ends of the investing/trading spectrum. Given your investing strategy, a year or two of poor share performance is of not much concern providing when you want to cash in the price is right.

Asymmetry

'Lack of equality or equivalence between parts or aspects of something; lack of symmetry.
"there was an asymmetry between the right and left ears"

Just tell the hound it means one of his ears is slightly lower than the other but it gives him character.

[disc0dave45] 25/11/2022 16:52

Oh I rambled and forgot my thread:"It makes little difference to me. As a short term trader I trade what's there."As a long term investor I'm not too fussed about daily shenanigans caused by traders (no offence intended, just joshing), I invest in the future value of my businesses that's yet to be fully realised ("if you aren't willing to own a share for 10 years then don't even think about owning it for 10 minutes" - WB).Asymmetry one - the hounds not the only one that doesn't understand! haha

[disc0dave45] 25/11/2022 16:38

Mr b"It makes little difference to me. As a short term trader I trade what's there."I could say that UK equity fund inflows this week hit their 35 week high, that inflation has peaked (although I do think that's not the case for the UK but some say that "core" inflation has indeed peaked), that 5 year mortgage rates have now fallen below their "Truss" peak and the average is now below 6% and still falling, that UK house builders are awash with cash (unlike the previous crash) and building up "cheaper" land banks / acquisitions, that a lot of UK mid cap stocks have definitely overshot to the downside and ratings are in single digit territory, that.......the hound's tail has started to wag a lot more and his stick picks are doing okay so far, :)

[bracke] 25/11/2022 16:14

disc0

Thanks for the link.

Having read through it; which was a test of stamina; I managed to retain my will to live. I also thought how fortunate I was to be a short term trader and use a different set of criteria.

Does the hound know you are intending to be the Alpha male? Doesn't he think he is?
Perhaps you could be satisfied with being the 'Assymmetry One'....the hound will not understand that.

[bracke] 25/11/2022 15:52

disc0

Stage 2 or Stage 3. I have to go with Stage 2. Why you may ask. I read what the FED says it will do. I read what companies are forecasting. I look at the US housing market. I look at the number of forecasts from those who should know that 2023 will be a recession year. I've no doubt you could point to a number of factors that point to a Stage 3.

It makes little difference to me. As a short term trader I trade what's there.

[disc0dave45] 25/11/2022 14:30

Mr bGuess you will say we are at Stage 2......naturally I say we're at Stage 3 and if a bear market lasts on average about a year then looking at the FTSE250 we are about 11 months in (I'm assuming the 60 day 20% is included in the average of a year) so a nice Santa Rally and away we go!.

[disc0dave45] 25/11/2022 14:17

Thanks Mr b will read later.
You may also find this of interest, do find Howard Marks (Oaktree Capital) memos a decent read albeit long winded at times (believe there’s also a podcast).
Have a good day :)

[bracke] 25/11/2022 13:49

"Mr Powell - thanks, guess the next trading day could be interesting!."
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Indeed. Depends how much he wants to slow the market down.

In the meantime here's a little light bed time reading.

[disc0dave45] 25/11/2022 13:23

Good afternoon Mr bThanks for the clarification, will now swot up!.Mr Powell - thanks, guess the next trading day could be interesting!.

[bracke] 25/11/2022 13:08

Good day disco

The red dashed horizontal lines are at the 100 point levels.

The blue solid horizontal lines are unfilled gaps.

The red solid sloping line is the primary trend line.

The green solid horizontal line is the previous day closing level.

The purple solid horizontal line is a reminder for me.

The yellow, blue, red and black squiggly lines are the Daily SMA20, SMA50, SMA100 and. SMA200.

Please remember these you will be tested in the future.

Something to bear in mind is Mr Powell speaks at the Brookings Institution on 30th November. See link.

[bracke] 24/11/2022 18:53

disc0

I thought you might like the addition of an Andrews Pitchfork to the chart. There is an 80% probability that the share price will reach the Median line (middle line of the pitchfork.

DAILY S&P 500 !!!!!!NOW WITH ADDED ANDREWS PITCHFORK FOR IMPROVED ANALYSIS!!!!!!

[bracke] 24/11/2022 18:42

disc0

Perhaps half day rather than short day may be better.

Next FED meeting is 14 December when the expectation is for a 0.5% rate increase. In the meantime the S&P 500 is approx 26 points short of the Daily SMA 200. It reached it in mid August but was sent packing so all eyes to see if it can overcome this time. The primary trend line is currently at approx 4100

There is also the 'Santa Rally' to consider.

You may remember a week or two ago I mentioned the high level of the AHT RSI. The S&P 500 RSI is also elevated. I ponder will the market keep things moving up until the New Year and then pull back.....just me musing but I've seen it before.

Anyway here's a colourful chart with lots of lines and squiggles on it.

S&P 500 DAILY

[disc0dave45] 24/11/2022 17:05

Good day Mr bThe FED "takething (new word!) away" is still some time away so who knows, they may bottle it and decide 3% inflation will suffice medium term rather than risk a harder longer recession. Just my usual glass half full thinking (hoping!).Have a good evening - think our cousins across the pond are open tomorrow but a short day (timewise that is not those nasty bets on a drop in prices / indices).

[bracke] 24/11/2022 16:25

Good day disc0

The FED giveth (Anyway, looks like a 0.5% hike is odds on favourite next time.)

and the FED taketh away (but the peak / target could be higher than first envisaged.)

[disc0dave45] 23/11/2022 21:08

A sprint or a marathon?...either way a false start is not ideal but guess more critical in a sprint....as you're then eliminated from the race!.Anyway, looks like a 0.5% hike is odds on favourite next time....but the peak / target could be higher than first envisaged (but guess that is and always was the unknown IMO)Https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/11/23/fed-minutes-november-2022.html

[bracke] 23/11/2022 16:23

disc0

Timing to perfection...one can dream.

The market reminds me of a sprint race with the runners in their blocks just waiting for the gun just needs a cough to set them off.

I imagine the FED go over the minutes with a fine tooth comb to remove any words that might be interpreted as a pivot.

[disc0dave45] 23/11/2022 16:04

Mr bAgree that timing is still very important irrespective of your strategy.....im Happy though in some instances to know there's decent upside (c 30% providing forecasts are indeed met) and to dip in even if it's not at its recent low or 52w low, plenty of stocks have overshot to the downside already and one can miss these opportunities by trying to time the market to perfection, which IMO cannot be done (if it is it's pure luck nothing more).As for the FED, guess when / if a rate rise is lower (0.5%) the market will still over react so que sera sera.

[bracke] 23/11/2022 14:00

disc0

As an investor I understand your "time in the market" comment. Although investors may not time to the 'N'th degree' timing is still of importance to avoid over paying and maximising profit....or minimising loss. As a short term trader 'timing' is paramount.

'The Minutes'. Previous statements by Mr Powell and recent statements by FED members have sought to down play any thoughts of a 'pivot' and reiterate additional rate increases. Whether the minutes make reference to a reduced size of the rate increases to 0.5%...maybe. The danger is that the market will interpret such a reference as a pivot and 'take off' which is not what the FED want.

US data just released shows jobless claims increased which the FED will like and durable goods orders also increased which the FED will not like. Honours even.

Whatever will be, will be. Not long to wait.

[disc0dave45] 23/11/2022 12:22

Thanks Mr bYour comments made me laugh, very good.For me it's time in the market not timing the market (although some of my recent dip buys are doing okay....so far!)Have a good one and hopefully the minutes (7pm) will make optimistic reading! :)

[bracke] 23/11/2022 11:11

Good day disc0

The S&P 500 says it's being resisted at 4000 but is hopeful that the minutes will give it the energy to overcome resistance and move on to 4100.

The DOW says 'stuff the minutes' I'm well on the way up and if the minutes give me another 200/300 great I'll take them. I'm booked in for some therapy to help control my natural exuberance.

The Nasdaq is also booked in for therapy to overcome depression and lethargy. It thinks the minutes will restate what the FED has been saying and that there is no salvation yet awhile.

So all in all a mixed bag.

[disc0dave45] 22/11/2022 19:37

Good day Mr bWhat do the charts for US indices say?

[bracke] 22/11/2022 18:14

Good day disc0

US market up today and appears to have decided to stay up for the time being. Is this because:

A. It expects 'nice' words from the minutes.

OR

B. It expects 'nasty' words from the minutes and today was about taking the market up in order to prepare for profitable shorts.

Just being my usual cynical self.