Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave45] 13/10/2022 19:28

Looks like our cousins filled their pockets with cheap UK stocks and are now doing likewise with some of their own......what a game!.

[disc0dave45] 13/10/2022 18:06

"Volatility, the life blood of the market."It sure is, someone's making lots of money, unfortunately not me though.....so any spare change you have, an EG must have loads!, just drop it into the hounds hat :)Thanks

[bracke] 13/10/2022 13:22

disc0

US unemployment supposedly remains low. Maybe an increase in unemployment would help reduce the inflation rate. After the rate ceases rising there is the question of how long the rate remains at the increased level.

Perhaps Mr Powell could state that the rate increases are transitory. On second thoughts best not.

[disc0dave45] 13/10/2022 13:20

Correction: CPI Sept to be confirmed today.Rumours that Kwarteng (the real one!) is dropping some elements of the "mini budget"

[disc0dave45] 13/10/2022 13:12

Good day MrbGiven USA month on month inflation reduced July, Aug, then Sept, plus there is also a lag in rate increases impacting on inflation, then IMO can't be many more, inflation can and will burn itself out too, so perhaps two more to hit circa 4.75% target?. Would prefer some market stabilisation by reducing to +0.5% even if it extends the frequency of hikes - is this now simply FED machismo at play which could be catastrophic!.....but wtfdik

[bracke] 13/10/2022 11:36

Good day disc0

Always question. Keeps me on my toes.

The FOMC Minutes didn't make much difference. Arguably the market has priced in the next rate rise. Depends how many more there are to come.

[disc0dave45] 12/10/2022 21:26

The hound wouldn't say no to some fresh meat!.......but point taken, thou shall never question the EG again! :)

[bracke] 12/10/2022 19:13

The Guru High Council have asked me if I would like to send a couple of our 'representatives' to see you to 'further advise' you. I have declined the offer saying that I'm sure you will proceed more carefully in future.

[disc0dave45] 12/10/2022 18:46

Soz elite one :)

[disc0dave45] 12/10/2022 18:30

Aargh my mistake

[bracke] 12/10/2022 18:06

disc0

I think there has been a misunderstanding.

This is the chart I originally posted



You will see there are two gaps at the top of the chart, one at the bottom and the gap at 4122.

I said "All being well the two at the top will eventually be filled but I suspected the probability is the one at the bottom is likely to fill first."

Given where the share price was at the time the gap at 4122 would have to be filled before the one at the bottom.

So far nothing has changed my view. I still think the probability is that the gap at 2889 will fill before those at 6200 and 6328. Until the FED pivot that will remain my view.

[disc0dave45] 12/10/2022 17:47

Mrb Sorry but you said the lower gaps would be filled before the 4122 gap......but they haven't been.You posted with regards to gaps being filled: "All being well the two at the top will eventually be filled but I suspected the probability is the one at the bottom is likely to fill first."I posted: "I?m hoping you mean the 4122, not the next lowest!"You replied: "Unfortunately not"

[bracke] 12/10/2022 16:41

Good day disc0

Now you'r being silly. The lower gap could hardly be filled before the one above it which is on the way down!

FOMC Minutes later. The market will be looking for the merest hint of a FED pivot which given the recent data is a low probability.

The market has become so used to cheap money and plenty of it the idea that it was 'transitory' refuses to sink in.

[disc0dave45] 12/10/2022 14:04

Good afternoon Mr bThought the lower gap was going to be filled first! lol :)US PPI slightly higher than forecast :(

[bracke] 12/10/2022 11:57

The gap at 4122 now filled.

[disc0dave45] 10/10/2022 12:43

Do folks still think AHT own AT.?The latter issued a nice "materially ahead" this morning.From memory a previous spike here could have been down to AT.....not complaining though!.

[disc0dave45] 07/10/2022 18:35

Liberum seem positive! Liberum upgraded equipment rental firm Ashtead on Friday to 'buy' from 'hold' and hiked the price target to 4,900p from 3,800p, "as government programmes kick in". The broker said that given the rapidly moving macroeconomic backdrop, it has chosen a pair trade for its "best idea": long Ashtead, short Ferguson. "The two are both fantastic companies with strong balance sheets, high returns and leading market positions. They are both gaining market share year after year, organically, boosted by bolt-ons. "We prefer Ashtead as it is overweight in commercial and infrastructure building in the US, where any cyclical weakness will be offset by help from mega-projects and US government largesse. "Ferguson is overweight residential construction (54% sales) which is weakening rapidly," it said adding that valuations are low for both. Liberum noted that Ashtead's shares have de-rated from 28x forward earnings to 13x as the market's appetite for growth and cyclicals has weakened. "Ashtead appears to have been punished for both characteristics," it said "During its de-rating, earnings estimates have improved by around 18%. Delivery of earnings in line with estimates should drive improved valuation from lows, while its growth characteristics might become more valuable if bond yields stabilise." Liberum said the shares are quite sensitive towards confidence in US economic growth, "perhaps wrongly if the long pipeline of mega-projects in US non-residential construction does offset any cyclical decline in the coming year".

[bracke] 07/10/2022 18:18

fenners

I now understand what you are saying.

I have been unable to find a chart with the AHT share price shown in US $. To adjust the £ to $ would be a long job. Thinking round the problem I show below the AHT chart with URI comparison line. AHT and URI price actions are generally similar. I'm not sure if this answers your query but my reasoning is that URI line is the result of a $ chart and is similar to AHT which suggests to me that £/$ rate will not greatly affect my original thoughts.

AHT/URI Comparison Daily Chart

[fenners66] 07/10/2022 17:40

bracke maybe I'll try again.

You are looking at charts and previous lows to assess where AHT may be going.
Chart in GBP as is the share price.
But the majority of the business , cash flow, profitability is in the US.
So I put it to you, do the chart either with a US quote - are the ADR's ? - or translated into US $ at the actual exchange rates then
Re calculate that same low with the exchange rate now , what happens ?

[disc0dave45] 07/10/2022 17:13

Good evening Mr bLooks like "less joy" :(

[bracke] 07/10/2022 13:17

Good day fenners

Hmmmm.....I think I understand what you are saying. You are using the £/$ rate to assess the theoretical share price or something like that . I will have to pass on that.

NFP today. Expectation is a fall from last months 315k to 250k which the market will like. If lower even more joy, if above less joy.