Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave45] 09/8/2022 19:52

Good evening Mr bThanks for the nice graph! and apologies to all for off topic. That mighty drop and crash started in April 2015 following their annual prelims which had a negative outlook for the 2015 financial year due mainly to the oil and gas sector. Interestingly they had a greater focus on that sector as they'd just acquired Tasman Oil Tools Ltd, which they have now offloaded and aren't so dependent on this sector anymore.They are in a sweet spot at the moment, yes it's a tiddler and yes it's AIM but they've increased forecasts three times this year so far, more recently in June and again today. Not many businesses are doing that at the moment (well not increasing their forecasts two months on the trot!).

[bracke] 09/8/2022 17:19

Good day disc0

Yes a risk off day whilst waiting for the 'fireworks' tomorrow.

I looked at the LOAD chart and wondered what occurred in Aug 2014, then I saw it is an AIM traded company.......say no more.

It's been hanging around the 23.6% fib for several weeks but certainly took off today but will it hold?

LOAD WEEKLY CHART




LOAD DAILY CHART

[disc0dave45] 09/8/2022 16:01

As an aside I noticed that one of the high risers today is a company called Crestchic (epic LOAD), whose business is loadbank and power transformer hire and manufacture.In Feb 2022 AHT (Sunbelt) purchased a similar US company called ComRent Holdings. A small'ish company whose turnover is about half that of LOAD, so probably only about £2m to £3m profit for AHT but one that seems to be yet another astute acquisition in a high growth sector (based on what Crestchic are saying).Ps LOAD looks a decent proposition despite its rise today, as ever DYOR.

[disc0dave45] 09/8/2022 15:51

Thanks Mr bLooks like a risk off day today....possibly in readiness of US CPI numbers tomorrow?.Anyhow, Goldman Sachs raises Ashtead Group price target to 5850 (5550) pence - buy.

[bracke] 09/8/2022 15:12

The gap at 4496 has been filled. Next to the downside is at 4397.

I am posting the 1 minute chart to show the large red candle. I don't know what it was about. I also post the Daily chart

AHT 1 MINUTE




AHT DAILY

[disc0dave45] 08/8/2022 18:55

US inflation forecasts reducedHTTPS://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-08/us-inflation-expectations-drop-sharply-across-all-time-horizons

[perfido] 08/8/2022 18:15

Good day disc0 et al,

What started out as a promising day failed to deliver, but volume was low and I get the feeling the market failed to make up its mind, or lacked conviction at the end of the day.

I can’t disagree with the comments posted, but would look for evidence that the tide has turned against AHT…. which of course would be another buying opportunity in my book.

In the meantime I think another period of masterful inaction is called for by my strategy pending evidence of market direction 😊

Good luck to others who may have a different take on matters, at the end of the day you place your bets and reap your just rewards….

[bracke] 08/8/2022 15:11

Good day disc0

When the US Market is in its current mood there is very little that will turn it. Good is good and bad is good. It's decided it's going up and that's it. Only when a good deal of cash has been made and the market is looking overbought will it consider a turn.

Maybe, just maybe, if the inflation data on Wednesday is very high perhaps a turn. If the data is moderate yipee! continue up.

EDIT

S&P500 - Possible resistance at 4200.

[disc0dave45] 08/8/2022 14:18

Let's hope it pans out that way Perfido.Flip side those pesky gaps, now 4640 filled will it roll over again with all this doom and gloom, no doubt talk will emerge of at least another 0.75% increase possibly 1%....the bears will love it.

[perfido] 08/8/2022 10:57

I mentioned in my post 61087 4/8/22 that I
suspected that AHT had currently reached an inflection point at 4600 and so it proved.

The assault on 4600 has today resumed and if this is
overcome, I would not be surprised if this became support going forwards for a further advance, ......we live in hope! (NAI)

[perfido] 07/8/2022 18:04

‘I know you’re probably not interested’ … at last we agree on something!

Nevertheless at your insistence I looked at DLG and find nothing to commend it as an investment. If you have a stake, I would urge you to consider your position, clearly it has nothing in common with AHT, so such comparisons are an exercise in futility.

It still mystifies me why you still hold AHT shares given your trenchant views…no reply necessary, I can guess the answer 😊

(Post edited)
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[fenners66] 05/8/2022 21:20

I know you're probably not interested , but take a look at say DLG where they have abandoned their share buybacks that added nothing to EPS as EPS fell anyway but they have not abandoned dividends.

[fenners66] 05/8/2022 21:17

perfido - you are correct dividends spending cash could be considered as a reason why there is the top slice of borrowings.

However , that would be like suggesting that banks stop paying interest on deposit accounts (I know they nearly have ) whilst still asking for more deposits to fund their business.

Its clear investments are in exchange for a return.

Here's the nub, share buybacks get (mis) described as "a return to shareholders" so the principal is accepted , shareholders / investors require a return etc.

As for the rest of the post it was digesting the actual cost of the borrowing which is clearly going to be a cost and a reduction to potential profit.

[perfido] 05/8/2022 18:14

I would like to say how nice it is to see some of the former stalwarts of this board back again.

Unfortunately some of them have returned with their misconceptions and prejudices which could be easily corrected by a read of the AHT accounts:

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Re post 61089 'buybacks'

'Effectively a 6.11% interest rate - years of cheap money are over and the having to refinance because of buybacks is going to cost shareholders for many years.'

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Untrue, even disingenuous: The amount allocated to buybacks is simply driven by that which is available from free cash flow after organic growth, bolt-on M&A and dividends, whilst allowing us to operate within our chosen 1.5 to 2.0 times target range for net debt to EBITDA pre IFRS 16. (AHT Capital Allocation Plan)

You could equally say that the amount of desired borrowings is driven by the level of dividend payout, but our poster is surprisingly quiet on that point apart from calling for an increase in dividends at every opportunity.. As for his capital losses as the stock has fallen to more realistic levels, equally quiet….… although the buybacks arguably have provided some support to the share price, +30% in the last month

I say to all returning posters, welcome back, but if you are just here for a moan, and that’s all you have to offer, for goodness sake, give it a rest?...

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[bracke] 05/8/2022 14:45

disc0

This is the result of the market preferring the 'dovish' tone of Powell at the last press conference to the 'hawkish' tone of Fed Members since then. Powell is trying to underplay the situation leaving Fed Members to tell it the way it is.

[disc0dave45] 05/8/2022 14:20

Yeah what recession!

[bracke] 05/8/2022 13:37

Good day disc0

The share price achieved target of gap fill so job done for now. NFP +528K.

Market unhappy......good news is bad.

[disc0dave45] 05/8/2022 12:41

Good day Mr bWhat now then?....seems like the market takes less notice of Mr Bailey than Mr Powell ....no surprise I guess, so we await the US jobs report.

[disc0dave45] 05/8/2022 12:32

Anybody know what the interest rate (assume it’s LIBOR USD plus 1.25% to 1.5%) is for their First Priority Senior Secured Credit Facility?
Are they paying off this debt at a lower rate of interest I wonder…..so many complicated numbers.

[bracke] 05/8/2022 10:41

The gap at 4640 now filled.

AHT DAILY

[fenners66] 05/8/2022 09:45

Ashtead Group plc ...announces the pricing of the offering of $750,000,000 million aggregate principal amount of 5.500% senior notes due 2032 .... The issue price is 90.009% of the principal amount of the Notes.

So if I understand that correctly , they are going to sell $750m loans for $675m meaning a loss of $75m then pay 5.5% on the whole.

Effectively a 6.11% interest rate - years of cheap money are over and the having to refinance because of buybacks is going to cost shareholders for many years.

This is going to cost $41.25m a year plus the amortisation of the $75m + fees and costs and the interest rolled up at the end when they pay it off earlier than running to term in 10 years.

No doubt the cost involved in paying off
"a portion of the outstanding borrowings under the First Priority Senior Secured Credit Facility, without a reduction in commitment. "

will be classified (Again) as exceptional .

So at least $49m a year for 10 years
Or 10c per share pre tax.

[mwainw1973] 05/8/2022 08:20

This has had a cracking 3 months and been watching only last few weeks. RSI is looking tippy and think needs to cool off before I take a few. Divi isn't great and PE is slightly over where I would like so will see what next few weeks do before making my decision

[perfido] 04/8/2022 20:47

Hi disc0,

Welcome back, I was begining to fear I had frightened everyone off.... :-(

I share your view, being ever optimistic, and having recently read a number of 'buy the dip' versus 'pound cost averaging' (pca) studies, the conclusions imply in more than 70% of cases PCA won so I hope to resume my purchase program shortly.

As far as gaps are concerned, I recognise that for day traders they are relevant, but for those average investors with a longer attention span, they are probably mere ripples or waves when considering longer term outcomes and the direction of travel or 'tide' of a share.

I think that AHT has currently reached an inflection point at 4600, but baring a major hiatus caused by geopolitical events, I would hope that further progress will be made.

Called it right? Thanks, you are too kind, but serendipity springs to mind :-)

In any event I wish you and other posters every success :-)
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[disc0dave45] 04/8/2022 17:04

Hi Perfido Difficult to know where the market and AHT is going shorter term.Despite the bleak statement from the BoE today is it already priced in?.....I'm still more positive than negative.Thought the momentum might shift to the downside here with folks taking their 30% but let's see, may even fill that gap that Mr b mentioned, who knows!.Glad though that you've called this right again, I was tempted but would he overweight and in this climate prefer to be more cautious.

[perfido] 03/8/2022 19:52

AHTs is behaving more or less as I anticipated in my post 61082 consolidating the recent major gain whilst reacting to external factors and general market sentiment, but largely recovering from pressure on prices and dollar flucuations.

Tide, waves, ripples analogy for longer term investors seems to fit appropriately but my earlier post seems to have been a conversation stopper - if anyone has other ideas do post your views :-)
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