Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[fenners66] 28/9/2022 12:58

There are always more levers moving at the same time.

Declining £ is good news for converting the US$ profit into a £ share price or as dividends.

But its because the US interest rates are rising , so the question is , will the US go into a recession that impacts
AHT growth , because that removes some of the share price premium
or profit , because that removes some of the earnings the share price is based on.

How long will the US have higher borrowing costs ?
Will that impact AHT US $ borrowings when they next have to refinance ?
Its always explained that its debt is average this or that many years , but we know that AHT Never let the debt run to maturity , hence the added finance costs (not interest).

Far better to have allowed cash flow to remove the debt over the last few years and not to have BB as that would leave them firepower to buy possible distressed bolt on acquisitions in the future....

[godwin2] 28/9/2022 12:31

I always thought that the lower the pound fell against the dollar the better the news for AHT, but it is not working out like that at the moment.

[fenners66] 28/9/2022 08:44

£ down to about $1.065

Could parity be on the cards ?

That should help the dividend yield already up about 10% in the last couple of weeks.

[disc0dave45] 28/9/2022 08:19

Thumbs up, another excellent posting :)

[trt] 28/9/2022 08:15

Could see the price drop below £35 at this rate.

[disc0dave45] 27/9/2022 21:28

I don't think after 3 weeks anyone can make any judgement on a persons capabilities.....particularly a complete stranger, but hey, it's the British way is it not, slag off everyone whether a success or not, easier than self appraisal I guess :)

[saltraider] 27/9/2022 20:13

Hey @disc0d, I really don't think Kwarteng's academic history is going to tell us much about his true capability. Those PhDs and MScs and all the many other degrees are just part of a filtering system to identify which of us has got a pair of half-brains to rub together ... c.f. the great majority that will contribute nothing throughout their lives beyond a small individual addition to net consumption. Wasters!

[disc0dave45] 27/9/2022 19:49

The "real" (lol) Kwarteng - PhD in economic history from Cambridge University and worked as an analyst in financial services....anyone trump that? :)

[2flatpack] 27/9/2022 17:22

Evening Bracke
Surly not! he would be a civil servant.
I heard in domestic science and home economics,
Cheers

[bracke] 27/9/2022 14:30

"We are seeing the advantage of having a chancellor with a double first."
=========================================================================

In classics and history

[fenners66] 27/9/2022 12:59

He got a "C" ?!

Must have been an easy year then....

[2flatpack] 27/9/2022 12:45

Morning All
We are seeing the advantage of having a chancellor with a double first.
Cheers

[bracke] 27/9/2022 11:13

Good day disc0

Thank you for your replies to my rhetorical questions, albeit they were somewhat basic and lacking in balance.

My understanding is that following the £ fall yesterday Mr K realised he had perhaps overdone the 'growth' aspects of his mini budget and promised to return to college in an effort to improve on the 'C' he was awarded for his '0' level economics exam.

[fenners66] 27/9/2022 10:50

Do AHT still have the tie up with Balfour Beaty?

"Balfour Beatty handed £4bn public contracts to build highways and civil engineering projects across the UK"

[disc0dave45] 26/9/2022 16:50

Will confess I heard it on the radio, but thought it was quite witty and glad it made you smile :)

[palwing32] 26/9/2022 16:36

That made me smile. Thanks.

[bracke] 26/9/2022 11:53

Good day disc0

Many thanks for the link to an interesting article. Reading the events of that time begs the question how the current US situation will be viewed in 10/20 years time.

As to the UK situation.....are we heading to a confrontation between Truss/Kwarteng and the BoE.

As to AHT it is, as I type, the third highest rise % wise on the FTSE 100.

[disc0dave45] 24/9/2022 19:05

Mr bYes, the FED were increasing interest rates according to the article below. Don't have all the details so please don't ask! :)Agree it's a dilemma and the BoE are now compromised and possibly will raise again - hopefully there is some dialogue between the chancellor and Bailey?.HTTPS://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus/2016/q3-4/federal_reserve

[bracke] 24/9/2022 18:06

Good day disc0

When JFK cut taxes what was the FED doing with interest rates?

It seems incongruous that Truss/Kwarteng are cutting taxes and putting money into the economy but the BoE are raising interest rates in an effort to rein in inflation.

Given the continuing £ fall will the BoE have to increase the rate again next week?

Of course this will all be academic if Mr Putin decides to lob a few nuclear missiles at us.

[disc0dave45] 24/9/2022 14:17

Hi MrbApparently It worked for JFK when he cut taxes in circa 1964/65, the US economy grew for what was then a record period of 120 months (10 years). Real GDP growth averaged nearly 5%, with economic growth topping 10% in two quarters (1965: Q1 and 1966: Q1) and 8% in eight quarters.Trouble is no economic circumstances are identical, so IMO one can't say it will or it won't work, something radical had to be done and Truss has at least had the guts to try.

[disc0dave45] 23/9/2022 22:07

The pound taking a bashing again.

[fenners66] 23/9/2022 17:46

Markets seem to be starting to accept there may be a coming worldwide recession.
Is it going to be shallow and short lived or worse ?

FWIW I think that AHT are best positioned in the USA where it may well be the shallowest.

However the US market moves suggest they now think interest rates are going to be higher for longer
the currency market is pointing to that,

Which suggests maybe a longer recession in the states than previously forecast.

At which point having £bn's in borrowings from buying back ones own shares starts to look daft.

But who would have thought there could ever be "another rainy day" ?

Just the more sensible ones ....amongst us.

[bracke] 23/9/2022 15:28

disc0

Apart from the barber boom, which did not work out and had to be reversed. I presume other countries have tried the same but I am unaware if any had success.

What Truss/Kwarteng are doing appears to be very risky, rather like putting all ones money on Red or Black. I hope it is successful otherwise it will be 'dark' times ahead.