Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[fenners66] 11/12/2024 10:55

Maybe they should set up a Barbados depot, or Hawaii, maybe Bali or Tenerife....

[fenners66] 11/12/2024 10:54

Listing a " growing" business in NY would be good for the share price. But announcing a huge BB instead of investing in growth / buying up more businesses looks like a cheap shot and throwing in the towel.

[fenners66] 11/12/2024 10:50

Funny how the anal-ysts change their ratings and target prices after the market has already moved. Highly paid but worthless.

[trt] 11/12/2024 10:17

Profit warning and delisting not good.

[bigbigdave] 11/12/2024 10:11

2 downgrades not helping

*GOLDMAN CUTS ASHTEAD GROUP TO 'NEUTRAL' (BUY) - PRICE TARGET 6600 (7350) PENCE
RBC CUTS ASHTEAD GROUP PRICE TARGET TO 6750 (7450) PENCE - 'OUTPERFORM'

[c_k] 11/12/2024 10:01

Since Drabble retired the apprentices don't seem to have the same skills and decision making cabability

[disc0dave46] 11/12/2024 09:58

fennersCan't disagree with most of what you say. They did mention it was also the decline in the construction sector not just interest charges and fleet sales.There was a decent free cash inflow compared to an outflow last year.As for fleet age, you are spot on, the average fleet age has been increasing:2024 46 months2023 47 months (but the interims last year stated 31 months!)2022 33 months2021 40 months2020 39 months2019 33 months

[suetballs] 11/12/2024 09:33

My stop loss of £50 looks set to triggered.
And that's a shame.
Suet

[trt] 11/12/2024 09:19

Could see £45 at this rate dropping like a stone.

[crookes243] 11/12/2024 06:32

Great analysis Fenners66.
BB again , this management seem to be a one trick pony. That’s not going to help debt levels or interest costs,at least they will be able to buy a few more shares at the new share price
What I find incredible is that with quarterly reporting, things can change so much in that short period with the overall US economy looking positive. Surely a top notch Management Team would have foreseen these trends earlier?

[fenners66] 10/12/2024 23:19

perfido - lower profit expectations agreed.

The lower sales value of second hand machinery was cited by management as a reason for underperformance vs previous and yes to an extent out of their control - but only in so much as plant prices for the same age plant have fallen , we might be able to analyse their plant age and come up with an approximation of the age of plant sold - but that would be a lot of work and for what ? I believe the overall age of the plant has increased over the last few years so I think that the second hand plant sold will be older and worth less. So if that is the reason then some of that is down to management.

However the higher interest cost and depreciation was given as the reason for the full year forecast falling short.

Given revenue was still growing profit should still be growing too and I question whether it would have with lower debt and interest costs - maybe I will do some analysis and see.

But surely their supposed white knight riding in on a charger to save the day was meant to be the announcement of another huge buyback ?

After all the message was who cares if profits fall short or indeed fall , if the EPS can be uplifted ....

Except the market has voted in the most damning way a valuation fall in one day I suspect we may have not seen before and said resoundingly trying to prop up EPS with a BB will not cut it.

They want growth. New York wants growth that's what they pin their excess values to - growing business not a metric and shrinking profitability.

I can imagine the next part of the strategy after listing in NY will be to sell off Ashtead in the UK. It would reduce the diversion of the "precious" management time and give them more chance to concentrate on such operations as the new depot in the Bahamas , which definitely needs a board visit !

Altering the dividend to make it 1/3 2/3rds seems to have signalled a very small annual increase of 3c a share 105c vs 108c although it brings it forward that small an increase does nothing for shareholders.

I remember the argument that BB would be jam tomorrow for dividends - less shares more to go around but that has not materially happened compared to earnings and has seemingly stalled.

One better number seems to be the gaining of 70 locations in a year whilst losing nearly 1400 staff - that at least looks like someone being proactive, staff costs have still grown though.

All in all the market last few weeks was clearly expecting a lot more and the NY listing in 12-18 months after months of consideration and now consultation with shareholders looks like prevarication - management that know what they want but cannot sum up the energy to get on with it. Weak in my eyes it does not take 18m to float a new company let alone move the listing - shares can already be bought in the US can't they?

I have to say the US management have not pulled any rabbits out so far .... will they ever ?

[crookes243] 10/12/2024 18:27

Never seen such a fall . The American Management Team are clearly underpaid and need to be incentivised.

[perfido] 10/12/2024 18:00

London stocks closed in negative territory on Tuesday, weighed down by a dip in sentiment following news that Ashtead planned to shift its primary listing to the United States, adding to a growing trend of London-listed firms looking across the Atlantic.

The FTSE 100 index fell 0.86% to close at 8,280.36 points, while the FTSE 250 edged 0.36% lower to settle at 20,973.94 points.

United Rentals is currently -33.95 at 801.94 (-4.06% @ 18.21 hours).

As usual fenners found the temptation to blame the AHT share buy back announcement for todays dismal performance irresistible, but really?

Full year profit expectations lower than previous expectations seems to be a key factor.

If AHT falls a bit further, I would be tempted to buy a few back, but not yet. In the meantime, commiserations to prospective fellow holders who didn't see this coming :-)
..

[bracke] 10/12/2024 17:25

Good day rogue

It did attempt a rise right at the close but was pushed back to 5392 to test the days low. There was minimal lower wick for the day.

I suspect US sentiment tonight and tomorrow will decide direction.

[bracke] 10/12/2024 13:59

That's a large gap! Probably going to take some time to fill.

Gaps at 6182 and 5968 well and truly filled but a new one at 6272. There is one more gap to fill at 5346. Perhaps the US will deal with it when the market opens.

The daily primary trend line has been broken Looking at the weekly chart the share price is being held at the SMA100 but don't discount a visit to the weekly primary trend line.

AHT DAILY



AHT WEEKLY

[bargainsniper] 10/12/2024 12:04

my bargain alarm isn't sounding yetvaluation remains too lofty for me

[roguetraderuk] 10/12/2024 11:23

fwd pe was pretty high on these coming into today so its no surprise they came in for a kicking. however, assuming the numbers wont be written down further, there is an argument for the shares towards 50 quid. 53xx looks like a reasonable entry point. below 50 the technicals get dicey.

[fenners66] 10/12/2024 10:58

It was obvious 6 months ago or more. They already were starting a consultation or review months ago so why a further delay ?
Just get on with it now.
1.5 bn buyback announced and share price tanks , can we lay to rest BB's are good?
What matters is the ( in this case) growth performance and that has stalled.
Keep saying higher debt and interest has impacted profit - and no buyback with debt repayment would that have maintained a trend of rising profits?

[disc0dave46] 10/12/2024 10:32

A 2.5% cut in revenue guidance but no guidance on reduced profit (could be -5%?). But today’s drop on the PW seems well overdone IMO.
A listing in the US in the next year or so and the market they cut revenue for this FY is the US.
Seems to me that the market doesn’t think a move to the US will result in a positive re/rating.

[roguetraderuk] 10/12/2024 09:12

at some stage in the future a position in the s&p 500 will be the target. much like ferguson which is expected to get in in the near future.
depsite the guidance i dont think you should expect to see these under 50 quid unless things in america make a turn for the worse. the technicals suggest purchases towards 50 make sense with the eventual break of 65 over the next 24 months at some stage. if economy keeps chugging along thats the base case for the shares.

[perfido] 10/12/2024 09:03

FTSE group Ashtead to shift primary listing to New York in blow to UK
===================================================

Ashtead Group, the £27bn construction rental company, plans to shift its primary listing to New York in the latest blow to the London stock market.

The company, which has been listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) since 1986, said the US was a natural home for the company, given that nearly all of profits – about 98% – are made across the Atlantic. It is proposed to retain a UK listing in the International Companies segment.

(The Guardian & FT 10/12/24, also RNS )

Quelle surprise!

(Edit: for the record I no longer have an AHT holding, sold the last few 19/9/24)

[crookes243] 10/12/2024 08:45

Moving to the US market and the share price tanks,go figure

[slogsweep] 10/12/2024 08:19

someone dumped £30m of stock after hours but before the results were out. I wonder if there will be an investigation, naw too busy chasing little guys with nit picking compliance riles to see the real crooks.

[bracke] 09/12/2024 17:47

Some shenanigans near the end of trading today which is probably linked to tomorrows results.

The 1 Minute chart apparently shows a largish purchase perhaps on the basis of great expectations?

AHT 1 MINUTE

[bracke] 05/12/2024 17:39

The resistance zone at 6400 is proving to be a tough nut to crack as it was in Nov/Dec 2021 when it made the all time high.

AHT DAILY



AHT HOURLY