Yes perfido suffering but not cashed in so you never know. We long term holders take it all on board. Still hold the same logic.
I was going to cash in at the time you sold your 25% but I had a Bridge tournament and left it . It’s never recovered ,so at least both of us called the top! |
at that point ashtead was less advanced in the us than today and i applied a pe similar to that of some other industrials over there during a pullback. pe ratios arent an exact science as they dont tell a full story at tops and bottoms of cycle but you can compare historically.
as i say i dont expect any deep downturn as they will just print money again to stop firms bottom lines regressing too much. this type of thing will go on and on until it doesnt but its anyones guess when the board is overturned. for now its in nobodys interests to stop the music. |
rogueThanks, but as you say it's very unlikely then that we will see 25-33 anytime soon.Interesting though that the price during the 2020 "recession" was 18-26, a similar range / spread but Perhaos a lower PE is needed? (according to Stockopedia the low PE in 2020 was closer to 10 than 14).Thanks, interesting. |
im not predicting recession its v unlikely but i applied a 10-20% drop in income and applied to that a 14 pe. that gets you to around that range and then drew in some technical levels to provide a band. |
rougue According to google:As of January 31, 2025, the probability of a recession in the United States within the next 12 months was 22%. This is down from 63% in the third quarter of 2022"Don't know the odds for beyond 2026 but then I'll take the 78% chance it's not happening this year as some comfort.Curious - what were your predictions based on?, that price range is going back to the period when there was the shortest US recession since 1854 as it lasted only two months from Feb to April (according to the National Bureau of Economic Research), and it should be flagged that it occurred due to a pandemic!. |
 Re crookes243 re your post 63152 19/09/24:
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Perfido, not trying to embarrass you but one of my investment hates is the one about selling a portion of your holding when you think it’s high. So to reduce the risk you sell some and let the other ride . I recall you sold a quarter of your holding in AHT at over £64 using this argument. I remarked at the time such a strategy makes no sense to the private investor,either you’re all in or all out. These ‘risk ‘ reducing strategies are for the professional managers who earn a salary. I know it’s not a common position that I hold.
So you sold out at £57 where if you had sold all your holding at £64 you would be a bit richer.
I’m still all in ( and I bought at £1) and still see more upside,but when I sell I will sell all my holding.
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Crookes, its what I call 'managing risk' and 'banking a (substantial) profit'.
How's your strategy working out for you, 4/3/25 AHT price closed at 4404p? Incidentally, for the record I have not bought back into AHT
My commiserations to all oher AHT holders, but I expect the recent price fall may only be a temporary setback ...fingers crossed! :-)
. |
25-33 poss if recession bites in the states. otherwise youd expect a reaction at around 37 and a half no lower. |
Trt
Are you trying to get me to the medication draw ? |
Could see the price drop below £40. |
"The ides of March are come"
4400 is next support.
AHT DAILY |
Definitely lost its mojo. Had to be better than in line today given the markets. |
Could easily see price dropping to £40. |
URI January low broken and currently held at the 626 support zone.
Likewise AHT has also broken down through the January low and is at the 4716 support zone. In doing so the gap at 4866 was filled.
The share price has moved into what is usually considered oversold territory but we are not in 'usual' conditions. US data this week will be closely watched.
AHT DAILY |
Good day Laird
Data from the US this week includes:
Home Depot on Tuesday before the open.
Nvidia on Wednesday after the close.
PCE on Friday.
Not to mention anything Mr Trump decides to throw into the pot.
Perhaps a visit to the charity shops may ease the shirt problem. |
Good Morning Bracke.
Thank you for taking the time to respond. (Like a true Guru)
The market certainly didnt like the failure to get the deal done. Nothing much else has changed. These mm's are so fickle. I might take a wee position if it touches the 600 mark. Got to be carefull, I am on my last shirt. |
Good day Laird
Friday was -5.39% for URI which takes the share price down to test the January low.
The daily averages are declining. If the test of the January low fails to hold the first support zone is at 626. Possible support zones are shown as red horizontal lines.
The daily RSI is in oversold territory but the weekly may drop further.
Tomorrow (Monday 24th) may bring a retrace up but the probability is that is all it will be.
We are in 'interesting times'. Further 'entertainment' from Mr Trump seems likely.
URI DAILY
URI DAILY - LONGER TIME FRAME
URI WEEKLY |
They might be walking this down, but they are murdering URI. Filled an old gap and looks as if it may go to 600. Thoughts from our rsident Guru please. You know who you are!!! |
They are not our cousins,they are a piece of sh*t. |
Our cousins walking this down again. |
Nations Rent... I remember it well.
I also remember one of the major holders selling their entire s/holding of approx 25 million shares in one hit sending the share price plunging just before AHT announced the purchase. Inside trading? Perish the thought!! Reason given by the seller was that the share price had risen well and they thought it was time to take profits. Of course they did.
Was there an investigation? No. All part of the 'game' |
disco AHT could still make a bid - like Herc have.
No I believe the market would be more disappointed if AHT did make a bid - especially as URI have come to the conclusion that a counter bid would be overpaying. |
FennersHerc have acquired H&EPossibly the market is disappointed that AHT didn't make a bid?Https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250218587289/en/Herc-Holdings-and-HE-Equipment-Services-Enter-into-Definitive-Merger-Agreement |
bracke - yes AHT fell on US market open and as I said I understood URI falling then as their News was already known. But that is the point it was URI specific and we already knew that prior to 2.30pm so their reaction was predictable but AHT rose in the morning.
That is why I suspect something else - like the above post.
I sincerely hope not... |
I hate to write this - you saw it here first if it comes to pass - but clearly those in the know , if there are any saw it somewhere else first....but given the 2 bids for H&E and the nature of the fall it feels a bit like the share price movement before AHT took over Nations Rent.
With hindsight that has worked out very well over the years - but initially it bombed the share price, likely because the instis were being sounded out for the rights issue to pay for it.
I sincerely hope that is NOT on the cards again. Bolt on acquisitions and greenfield sites can grow the business without overpaying for anyone else's bag of bones. ....
But with the Yanks in charge , building empires anything is possible... |
fenners
"URI and H&E had already updated the market on their news."
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AHT and URI dropped in unison when the US Cash market opened yesterday.
AHT down today. Next support at 4970. Thereafter possible gap fill at 4866.
AHT DAILY |
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